Archive for the ‘Casualty’ Category



January 13th, 2015

Comparison of Federal Terrorism Insurance Backstop Legislation

Posted at 3:13 PM ET

This two part table compares the expired Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007 with the 2015 TRIPRA legislation that was signed into law on Monday, January 12, 2015.

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January 8th, 2015

Terrorism Risk Insurance Protection Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA)

Posted at 2:36 PM ET

Marsh & McLennan Companies applauds the new Congress for its swift reauthorization of this critically important public-private partnership, which will help to ensure a reliable marketplace for terrorism coverage in the event of attack. We are pleased that TRIPRA directs the Treasury Department to review the protocols for certification which would help to protect the nation’s economic security in the event of a terrorist attack.

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January 8th, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Tops Stories: For the Year 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

A look back at 2014’s most viewed stories.

1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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2. January 2014 Renewal Report: Capacity: Evolution, Innovation and Opportunity: The January 1, 2014 renewal saw rates on line (ROLs) fall significantly in nearly all regions and business segments as relatively low loss experiences, strong balance sheets and an influx of capital spurred competition and innovation in the reinsurance market. This culminated in a marketplace focused on meeting individual client needs as reinsurers reacted to the challenge posed by alternative markets and alternative markets, in turn, sought to deliver unique solutions. Insurers also looked to capitalize by adapting their buying strategies and prioritizing their risk transfer goals.

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3. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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 4. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.

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5. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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6. July 1 Renewals Reveal Continued Double Digit Price Decreases Across Many Lines and Geographies: Guy Carpenter reports that market pressures at July 1 renewals continued to drive price decreases across virtually all geographies and lines of business, many in the double digit range. As loss activity remained minimal, reinsurers added to surplus capacity and additional capital continued to come into the market via alternative sources.

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7. Reinsurance Pricing Falls Again at June 1, 2014 as Competition Heightens: Guy Carpenter reports that downward pressure on reinsurance pricing has increased since the June 1, 2013 renewal due to continued competitive pressure from alternative markets, strong reinsurer balance sheets and low loss experiences. In its June 2014 renewal briefing, Guy Carpenter reports that competition increased as markets offered abundant capacity at reduced pricing. Terms and conditions also came under pressure and multi-year transactions continued to be an area of investigation. Traditional reinsurers sought to protect their market share and alternative providers looked to utilize growing funds.

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8. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our popular series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

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9. Catastrophe Bond Outlook for 2014: The growing influence of alternative markets capacity is pressuring traditional reinsurers’ business model and challenging them to compete against a model with lower-cost of capital that continues to enter the reinsurance market. Most reinsurance companies have responded to the challenge by leveraging their incumbent status on reinsurance programs, offering similar or better terms and similar or reduced pricing. Particularly, traditional players are emphasizing their ability to efficiently provide reinstatements, which are seen by many as a critical part of core reinsurance programs, particularly for working reinsurance layers. Traditional players are also hedging their bets and creating their own capital markets divisions to attract, manage and utilize capital from third-party sources whether in the form of fund management, managed accounts or sidecars. This will allow reinsurers the opportunity to securitize the most capital-intensive parts of the business while providing valuable cost-efficient capacity in other business lines.

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10. April Renewals Bring Price Reductions & Focus on Tailored Coverage: Guy Carpenter reports that the April 1, 2014 renewal was marked by price reductions and more tailored reinsurance coverage. Strong balance sheets, an abundance of capacity and a consolidation of buying led to lower reinsurance pricing across most territories and business segments at the renewal.

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

January 6th, 2015

January 1, 2015 Renewals See Lower Pricing and Broader Coverage for Clients

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter reports reinsurance pricing fell at the January 1, 2015 renewals in many segments, affecting almost all lines of business and geographies, continuing recent renewal trends.

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January 5th, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: December, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Casualty Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Casualty (or liability based) catastrophes have become increasingly frequent and severe over the past decade, exposing (re)insurers to much more risk than they may have realized and reserved for. One root cause can trigger a chain reaction that can bleed balance sheets and even imperil solvency. Until recently, casualty carriers had little choice but to accept this risk as losses emerged.

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2. The Reinsurance Evolution Continues: Executive Summary: During the past twelve months, capital has continued to flow into the reinsurance markets in the form of both insurance-linked securities (ILS) and collateralized reinsurance transactions. This report examines the growth in the ILS market during the past year and some of the important evolutionary elements of catastrophe bond structure and risk transfer. We also explore how the use of capital markets-based capacity provides cost savings for public entities by helping them build surplus, reduce public debt and limit the risk that natural perils can pose to the state’s balance sheet. As collateralized markets continue to increase in importance as an alternative to both traditional reinsurance and ILS, Guy Carpenter has taken an active role in analyzing counterparty risk and developing specific structures and strategies to manage this risk. This report also provides an overview of the manner in which Guy Carpenter assists its clients in managing counterparty risk and limiting credit exposure.

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3. Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

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4. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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5. Reserving Risks: The previous sections suggested how “dark matter” can be lurking on an insurer’s balance sheets in the form of a casualty catastrophe or an emerging and not as yet fully understood risk such as cyber. While there have been significant advances in quantifying the uncertainty pertaining to these risks, it is worth considering how they may manifest themselves in the future and what can be done about them now to protect from the “dark matter” downside.

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6. Understanding Emerging Risks: Imperative for the Future: The downside focus of risk measures highlights what could be a key problem with the debate around emerging risks - when people think about risk they only consider the downside. Cars, penicillin, fossil fuels, the internet - all of these were once emerging risks, and they have caused global destruction through car accidents, antibiotic resistance, climate change, and now, possibly through cyber risk. But they have also brought far better travel, longer and much healthier lives for almost everyone, affordable electricity for people in their own homes, and an explosion of information on a scale never seen before available freely at the click of a button.

Read the article>>

 

7. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

8. Impact on Results: To consider the impact that these cycles may have on the financial statements and solvency positions of insurers there has to be an understanding of the magnitude of any change in ultimate loss and the likely timing of the recognition of that change. The profit or loss in any financial year is a combination of the profit and loss from that accident year and also any recognized changes in the reserves from prior years.

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9. Private Catastrophe Bonds: The growth in the utilization of private catastrophe bonds continues at similar rates. Private catastrophe bonds provide the same benefits as 144A catastrophe bonds, including fully collateralized, multi-year protection, but private bonds are more cost-effective and allow for more streamlined documentation given the typically smaller limit size of each transaction. The chart shows the evolution of private catastrophe bonds based both on deal count and total aggregate limit placed. In an environment of growing demand for capital markets capacity, GC Securities*, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, formulized its private catastrophe bond approach in June 2013 with development of the Tensai private catastrophe bond program in conjunction with Tokio Millenium Solutions’ Shima Re Ltd. facility.

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10. Capital Markets Capacity: Growth Dominates in 2014: The influx of new capital into the reinsurance industry constitutes the largest change to the sector’s capital structure in recent memory. Over the past 24 months, approximately USD20 billion of new capital has entered the market through investments in insurance linked securities (ILS), funds and sidecars as well as the formation of hedge fund-related reinsurance companies and collateralized reinsurance vehicles.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

December 22nd, 2014

Understanding Emerging Risks: Imperative for the Future

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The downside focus of risk measures highlights what could be a key problem with the debate around emerging risks - when people think about risk they only consider the downside. Cars, penicillin, fossil fuels, the internet - all of these were once emerging risks, and they have caused global destruction through car accidents, antibiotic resistance, climate change, and now, possibly through cyber risk. But they have also brought far better travel, longer and much healthier lives for almost everyone, affordable electricity for people in their own homes, and an explosion of information on a scale never seen before available freely at the click of a button.

Continue reading…

December 18th, 2014

Cycle Mitigation: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Incorporating reserve value added (RVA) into reinsurance decision making for long-tail lines is a step in the right direction. However, it is not the full story, as the decision is still typically made in the context of a single accident year and usually for a single line of business in isolation. The cycle correlations clearly show that this is sub-optimal. We are encouraging our clients a step further along the sophistication and hence simplicity/complexity spectrum.

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December 17th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Launches MetaRisk® Reserve™ 4.0

Posted at 5:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter announced today the launch of MetaRisk Reserve 4.0TM. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling tool delivers improved statistical models and an enhanced user interface.

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December 17th, 2014

Cycle Mitigation: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

So what can be done to mitigate such cyclical effects? The first steps are to acknowledge them and to try to quantify their impact. The latter is more of a challenge than the former. Most internal capital models are not truly multiyear and arguably fail to adequately capture both the correlation between lines of business and in particular across accident years. Cycle (and recognition pattern) scenario testing is a good way to achieve this. This provides a neat and practical way to correlate between years and lines of business.

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December 16th, 2014

Impact on Results

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

To consider the impact that these cycles may have on the financial statements and solvency positions of insurers there has to be an understanding of the magnitude of any change in ultimate loss and the likely timing of the recognition of that change. The profit or loss in any financial year is a combination of the profit and loss from that accident year and also any recognized changes in the reserves from prior years.

Continue reading…