Archive for the ‘Month in Review’ Category



July 5th, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: June, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Potential Losses From the Kumamoto Earthquake: The catastrophe modeling firm RMS estimated the economic loss for property risks to be between USD2.5 billion and USD3.5 billion. This estimate includes only residential, commercial, and industrial property and contents. Catastrophe modeling firm AIR estimated the insured loss to be between USD1.7 billion and USD2.9 billion for property risks. Both catastrophe modeling firms’ estimates exclude infrastructure, business interruption and contingent business interruption.

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2. Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem: There are three main questions to be tackled in sequence:

  1. Which emerging risks potentially expose my company?
  2. What means do I have to quantify those risks?
  3. How are these risks likely to crystalize?

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3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 1990 to 2016: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

Read the article>>


4. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


5. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>


6. Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2016: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the first quarter, 2016 compared to the first quarter, 2015.

Read the article>>


7. Guy Carpenter Appoints CEO of GC Stockholm: Guy Carpenter announced the appointment of Tobias Andersson as CEO of GC Stockholm, effective April 1, 2017. He will succeed Tomas Ljungqvist, who will become Chairman of the division.

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8. Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2016: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2005 through first quarter 2016.

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9. Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

Read the article>>


10. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>


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June 1st, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: May, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

Read the article>>


2. Fort McMurray Wildfires - Canada: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have helped to reduce spread of the wildfire that recently rendered devastating impacts to Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Nevertheless, the fire continues to grow outside the city and has now claimed 2,020 square kilometers (790 square miles), according to media reports. A general trend of cooler temperatures is expected through this week, before another warming trend next weekend.

Read the article>>


3. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


4. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>


5. Stochastic-based BCAR: Do You Understand Your “Capital-print”?: Technology and innovation continue to change the world around us, creating both opportunities and new challenges for the (re)insurance industry. Advances in risk quantification such as predictive analytics and capital modeling, to name a few, are changing the way we underwrite, price and manage risk. Similarly, technology is allowing A.M. Best (Best’s) to advance the analytics of risk supporting its assessment of balance sheet strength. Taking advantage of stochastic modeling technology, the evaluation of risk within Best’s capital model is undergoing a fairly substantial overhaul to broaden the lens used to analyze risk relative to capital. The technology allows efficient production of multiple capital metrics adjusted for a range of risk levels rather than risk represented by just one data point, providing deeper insights into balance sheet strength, risk profile and risk appetite.

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6. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>


7. Increasing Confidence and Transparency in Your Catastrophe Risk Decisions: Could you afford to find that the portfolio you just acquired in North Carolina is more exposed to hurricane than previously assumed? What if next year’s Category 2 hurricane caused a loss in excess of 15 percent of your policyholders’ surplus?  How will the changes in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps impact your exposure to earthquake risk in the central and eastern United States?

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8. Risk Analytic Tools: Public sector-related data can be expansive, containing census data, property risk characteristics, historical loss information, risk rating matrices and natural hazard event scientific tracking. In order to facilitate packaging the sometimes unwieldy data in a way that is useful for risk decision making, utilizing outside resources to improve data transparency can be valuable. Public sector resources devoted to building tools that measure risks that are perceived as “uninsurable” can unlock private sector funding.

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9. Cyber Risk: As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines.

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10. Guy Carpenter Reports on Kumamoto Earthquake, Seismic Risk and Earthquake Cover in Japan: Guy Carpenter & Company released a briefing and analysis of the Kumamoto Earthquake that struck Japan in April 2016.

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May 2nd, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: April, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>


2. Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

Read the article>>


3. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>


4. Guy Carpenter Announces Senior Promotion and Appointment: Guy Carpenter & Company announced that Peter Stubbings has been promoted to CEO of the firm’s Bermuda operations, with immediate effect. In addition, Richard Keegan is to join the Bermuda team as Senior Vice President in May.

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5. Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015.

Read the article>>


6. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


7. Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

Read the article>>


8. Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the year end, 2015 compared to the year end, 2014.

Read the article>>


9. US Residual Markets: The US residual property insurance market segment is comprised of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans, Beach and Windstorm Plans and two state run insurance companies - Florida Citizens Property Insurance Company (Florida Citizens) and Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Louisiana Citizens). These insurance facilities grew out of the civil strife in the 1960s to ensure continued access to insurance in urban areas. Over time they have evolved and their mandate has grown beyond their urban focus. Today these facilities are significant providers of some of the most wind- and earthquake-exposed property insurance in the country.

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10. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>


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April 4th, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: March, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Chart: Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions for 2015: The table lists the top ten catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2015.

Read the article>>

 

2. Insured Versus Uninsured Loss: There are a number of factors that contribute to the gap between economic loss and insured loss and as new risks emerge such as climate change and political risk, this gap will only continue to widen.

Read the article>>

 

3. Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years. In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015. 

Read the article>>

 

4. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

5. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>

 

6. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>> 

 

7. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

Read the article>> 

 

8. Guy Carpenter Cites El Niño and North Atlantic Oscillation as Key Climate Drivers in 2015: Guy Carpenter reported that 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, while a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was evident both at the beginning and close of the year.

Read the article>> 

 

9. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>

 

10. The Emerging Risks Quandary, Anticipating Threats Hidden in Plain Sight: Marsh & McLennan Companies’ Global Risk Center has published a new report, The Emerging Risks Quandary. Many companies struggle to articulate the precise relevance of global and emerging risks to their business, and are poorly organized to make timely decisions. This report explores what impedes corporate efforts and sets out how companies can blend creativity and pragmatism to look beyond predictable and controllable risks to complex uncertainties that have the potential to generate more than mere volatility in corporate earnings.

Read the article>> 

 

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

March 1st, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: February, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015. 

Read the article>>

 

2. Meeting the Challenges: Catastrophe Modeling: The insurance industry relies to a large extent on catastrophe models to manage catastrophe risk. Regulators and rating agencies recognize this fact by asking companies to justify their modeling approach. The underlying objective of such rules is to encourage companies to have a robust and consistent process to use modeling tools responsibly.

Read the article>>

 

3. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

4. Catastrophe Bond Update: Fourth Quarter And Full Year 2015: 144A property and casualty (P&C) catastrophe bond primary issuance levels were uncharacteristically low in the fourth quarter with an aggregate notional of USD 1.425 billion of 144A P&C catastrophe bonds issued benefiting five sponsors. The 2015 full year primary issuance of 144A P&C catastrophe bonds totaled USD 5.917 billion from 25 transactions benefiting 24 sponsors. 144A P&C risk capital outstanding as of December 31, 2015 totaled USD 22.640 billion, which is 0.56 percent lower than 2014’s all-time high in the 144A P&C catastrophe bond market.

Read the article>>

 

5. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>

 

6. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>

 

7. Marsh and McLennan Companies, in Collaboration With the World Economic Forum, Publish the 11th Annual Global Risks Report: Disruptive shifts in technology, geopolitics, societal expectations, and economic patterns are creating instabilities that are directly impacting events in the world today. The World Economic Forum’s eleventh Global Risks Report highlights the issues that will exacerbate volatility and uncertainty over the next decade - while also presenting opportunities for governments and businesses to build resilience and deliver sustainable growth.

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8. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 1990 to 2016: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

Read the article>> 

 

9. Partnerships: The Way To Public Sector Risk Financing: The impact that catastrophic loss can have on the fiscal position and tax base of government entities across the globe is significant. Impacted areas can take decades to recover when economic recovery is limited. Approximately 73 percent or USD 2.7 trillion of natural catastrophe losses globally between 1970 and 2014 were uninsured. The creation of private sector pre-financing options will not only relieve the burden on taxpayers and in turn, public finances, but will migrate the management of these catastrophes to insurance and reinsurance companies where claims handling and risk management is core to their operations. This allows local economies to come back on line more quickly.

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10. Winter Storm - January 21-23, 2016: From January 21-23, a significant winter storm affected areas of the United States from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic to New England. The winter storm, unofficially named “Jonas” by the Weather Channel, produced significant snowfall totals from Washington D.C. to the New York Metro area, breaking many daily snowfall records. Strong winds together with blowing snow often reduced visibility below a quarter mile. Strong onshore winds brought hurricane-force wind gusts to some areas and drove a storm surge impacting areas of Delaware and New Jersey.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

February 1st, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: January, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015.

Read the article>>

 

2. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>

 

3. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>

 

4. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 1990 to 2016: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

Read the article>>

 

5. Developments in Asia Pacific: Overview: Asia Pacific is a diverse mix of countries encompassing nearly one-third of the earth’s landmass and more than one half of its population. Given the broad spectrum of economic and regulatory sophistication across the region, the approach to insurance regulation has varied on a country-by-country basis as each regime adapts solvency principles to their own needs and political realities.

Read the article>>

 

6. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

7. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding - 1998 to YE 2015: The chart presents catastrophe bond issuance through 2015. Total bond issuance for the year 2015 was the fourth highest historically.

Read the article>>

 

8. Guy Carpenter Names Matthias Meyenhofer as Head of Global Partners EMEA: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, announced the appointment of Matthias Meyenhofer as Managing Director, Guy Carpenter, effective immediately.

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9. Chart: Estimated Dedicated Reinsurance Sector Capital, 2012 to YE 2015: The chart shows that a preliminary estimate of total capital dedicated to reinsurance is approximately USD 400 billion, unchanged from the previous year.

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10. Chart: Significant Insured Losses - 2011 to YE 2015: Reports losses by quarter.

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January 4th, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: December, 2015

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. The Rise of Emerging Risk and Casualty Catastrophe Models: The modeling of emerging and casualty catastrophe risks remains challenging and the models continue to vary in their approach, level of development and industry acceptance. With the potential scenarios numerous, diverse and constantly changing, there is no single model or approach that could contemplate all of them. Furthermore, the various disaster scenarios with which carriers are being increasingly confronted needs to be prioritized and synthesized within their enterprise risk management framework. By their very definition, there may be limited data on hand on which to base any modeling. As a result, much of the industry continues to rely on multiple models and actuarial approaches that encompass model applications, probable maximum loss (PML) estimates, realistic disaster scenarios, experience and exposure ratings to create a broad set of scenarios and deterministic views.

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2. GC Securities* Report Shows Catastrophe Bond Market Continues to Hold Steady: GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, released a briefing and analysis of catastrophe bond activity for the third quarter of 2015, which shows healthy activity across the market and marks the fourth highest third quarter catastrophe bond issuance on record.

Read the article>> 

 

3. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>> 

 

4. Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through third quarter 2015.

Read the article>> 

 

5. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.

Read the article>>

  

6. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

7. Update on China Counterparty Risk Charges for Offshore Reinsurers: China’s developing insurance market is a potential bright spot for growth in an otherwise challenging landscape for global reinsurers. Driven by a maturing economy and expected increases in household penetration ratios, property/casualty insurance premium, totaling USD 121.6 billion in 2014, is projected to increase to roughly USD 300 billion by 2030.

Read the article>>

 

8. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty. 

Read the article>>

 

9. Developments in Europe: Solvency II: After a long period of discussion and many delays, the new European insurance regulatory regime, Solvency II, will commence in January 2016. The rules will be compulsory for all insurance and reinsurance companies and groups in the European Economic Area (EEA). The three pillar approach of Solvency II for (i) quantitative capital requirements, (ii) qualitative risk management standards and (iii) reporting specifications, was derived from the international banking sector regulation (Basel II and Basel III). The Solvency II rules were developed over a period of more than 15 years, and there are many reasons for the long delay. Two notable reasons are differing business models from country to country and pressure on long-term guarantee products.

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10. Guy Carpenter Announces MetaRisk® 8.1, the Latest Version of its Premier Economic Capital Modeling Tool Suite: Guy Carpenter announced the release of MetaRisk® 8.1, the latest version of the industry’s leading dynamic financial analysis platform.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

December 1st, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: November, 2015

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Marsh & McLennan Companies Publishes Cyber Risk Handbook: Cyber risk is an escalating threat and one of the most challenging issues facing the world today. Attacks are becoming more frequent, more intense and more sophisticated. Motivations are wide-ranging - from financial gain to threatening critical infrastructure and national security - and the nature of attacks is constantly changing. With cyber risk, there is an active adversary so defenses need to be increasingly sophisticated to keep pace.

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2. Cyber Risks: Aggregation: Businesses and (re)insurers should be concerned by risk aggregation, given the possibility of single attacks leading to losses across a large number of firms, which can create counter-party risk for the insured and potential failure for the insurer. At the moment, a large systemic event has not materialized, but that does not mean that the risk is not present.

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3. New Products Revealed as Biggest Growth Opportunity for (Re)Insurers in 2016, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: New products represent the biggest growth opportunity for (re)insurers in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. The fourth annual survey polled insurance and reinsurance executives at the 2015 Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCIAA) Annual Meeting, held in Hollywood, Florida. Designed to identify what (re)insurance professionals believe to be the leading opportunities and threats to growth, this year’s survey examines which areas are most in need of innovation as well as the emerging risks respondents believe will impact their plans for growth in 2016.

Read the article>>

 

4. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>

 

5. Guy Carpenter Report Evaluates (Re)Insurance Regulatory Advancement in the Asia Pacific Region: Guy Carpenter published an assessment of the development of solvency requirements and regulatory initiatives that are impacting (re)insurers in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region. According to the report, these developments are driven by four key motivators, including the need to improve resiliency post-catastrophic loss; to increase oversight in a post-Great Recession world; to follow best practices from the banking and international insurance sectors; and finally, to satisfy domestic political pressures.

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6. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.

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7. In 2015, Growth and Innovation Demonstrated in Asia Pacific, according to Guy Carpenter Report: Guy Carpenter published a new report finding that prevailing market conditions continued to allow buyers in the Asia Pacific region to achieve favorable pricing, terms and conditions as capacity exceeded demand.

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8. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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9. Guy Carpenter Examines Shifting Public Sector Risk Landscape: Guy Carpenter announced the release of its Public Sector Risk Report, Partnerships: The Way to Public Sector Risk Financing, which examines the shifting economic and risk landscapes that are driving public sector entities to consider new approaches to risk financing.

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10. Solvency II: Assessing Counterparty Default Risk: Counterparty default risk is one of the core components of the SCR. This module has undergone substantial change over the several quantitative impact studies, as the supervisors attempted to find an appropriate measure of the risk. In the QIS 5 final report, EIOPA noted that this module received the most criticism for the “overly complex approach” relative to the materiality of counterparty default risk within the overall risk-based capital requirement. We expect to see additional changes that will simplify the calculation of risk.

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November 2nd, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: October, 2015

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Fifth Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Report from Guy Carpenter: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the release of the 2015 Insurance Risk Benchmarks Report titled, Risk and Opportunity In the year of ORSA: Annual Statistical Review. The report is produced annually through Guy Carpenter’s ongoing Insurance Risk Benchmarks research project, which focuses robust analytics on risk and performance in the U.S. property/casualty (P&C) insurance industry.

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2. Regulatory Challenges and Opportunities for (Re)insurers: (Re)insurers are being challenged as the regulatory environment becomes more complex, with regulation increasing considerably at multiple levels in numerous jurisdictions throughout the world. Insurers are facing new costs and pressures in their efforts to manage the regulatory landscape.

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3. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.

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4. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

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5. Reinsurance Mergers and Acquisitions Deja-vu, Buyers Beware: Since 2014, there have been four mergers and acquisitions (M&As) within the reinsurance space that are pure consolidations rather than transactions by an acquirer from outside the sector. To date, we estimate that this consolidation wave has affected some USD 11 billion of net premium income and 5 percent of the global reinsurance market. However, that is short of the USD 16 billion and 13 percent, respectively, for the mid-1990s. There is nothing unusual about M&A. It is a cyclical phenomenon and very much in tune with the broader financial market environment.

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6. Guy Carpenter Examines Shifting Public Sector Risk Landscape: Guy Carpenter announced the release of its Public Sector Risk Report, Partnerships: The Way to Public Sector Risk Financing, which examines the shifting economic and risk landscapes that are driving public sector entities to consider new approaches to risk financing.

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7. Cyber Risk: Cyber risk is one of the most pressing and public topics that industry is grappling with and is being addressed as a strategic priority in corporate boardrooms and by governments around the world. As the global economy becomes increasingly dependent on e-commerce and cloud computing, the susceptibility to cyber risk increases exponentially.

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8. A Clearer View of Emerging Risks: Executive Summary: Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy.

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9. Businesses and Their Exposures: As referenced in the table Taxonomy of Cyber Risk for Corporations below, the potential losses deriving from cyber-attacks or non-malicious information technology failures fall into 11 categories illustrated in the second table Loss Categories Deriving From Cyber Attacks and Non-Malicious IT Failures.

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10. Baden-Baden Reinsurance Symposium Turns Spotlight on Recent Market Consolidation: Guy Carpenter & Company once again hosted the Reinsurance Symposium in Baden-Baden on October 18. Focusing on the theme of “Consolidation: Who Wins in the Race for Scale?”, leading industry figures shared their views on the recent merger & acquisition activity in the insurance and reinsurance arena, commenting on its impact on market dynamics, the key drivers for consolidation and what factors will contribute to success in the push for scale.

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October 1st, 2015

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: September, 2015

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Port of Tianjin Explosions Set to Become One of Asia’s Largest Insured Man-Made Loss Events: Potential Losses Between USD 1.6 Billion to USD 3.3 Billion: Guy Carpenter released a report on the Port of Tianjin Explosions. The report provides initial loss estimates and outlines the many variables involved in assessing the losses emanating from the two massive initial explosions that occurred at Tianjin Port on August 12 of this year.

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2. Guy Carpenter Examines Emerging Risks Impacting the (Re)insurance Industry: Guy Carpenter published a new report, A Clearer View of Emerging Risks, which examines four key areas where risks continue to emerge or are largely unknown.

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3. The Proliferation of Mergers & Acquisitions in Specialty Markets: New capital inflows, excess capacity and few catastrophe losses have contributed to falling reinsurance prices and a challenging environment for specialty insurers and reinsurers. These factors have driven predictions of a forthcoming wave of market consolidation, which appeared to become a reality in late 2014 and 2015 when a series of rumors and announcements related to a number of large (re)insurers grabbed headlines.

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4. Solvency II Horizon: Challenges and Strategic Impact: After a long period of discussion and many delays, the new European insurance regulatory regime, Solvency II, will commence in January 2016. The rules will be compulsory for all insurance and reinsurance companies and groups in the European Economic Area. The Solvency II rules were developed over a period of more than 15 years, and there are many reasons for the long delay. Two notable reasons are differing business models from country to country and pressure on long-term guarantee products in the private pension system created by the low interest rate environment.

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5. Dedicated Reinsurance Capital Estimate at July 1, 2015: Guy Carpenter’s estimate of dedicated reinsurance sector capital as of July 1, 2015 was again produced through our work with A.M. Best. Our estimate is not a simple aggregation of the capital of all companies that write reinsurance since some capital is allocated to the insurance business or other outside interests. In fact, we have seen increased evidence that some companies are shifting capital toward insurance lines and away from reinsurance lines based on the current rate environment. A.M. Best and Guy Carpenter have estimated the amount of capital dedicated to writing reinsurance by reviewing A.M. Best’s proprietary capital model (BCAR) results as well as line of business allocations. Our current estimate of total capital dedicated to reinsurance is approximately USD 400 billion of which the convergence capital, including catastrophe bonds, industry loss warranties (ILWs), collateralized reinsurance and sidecars is USD 66 billion.

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6. Guy Carpenter Assesses Implications of Current Market Dynamics on Pricing Environment: Challenging market conditions due to abundant capacity, the ongoing influx of new capital and limited loss experience, continue to put pressure on the reinsurance sector, while recent M&A activity is adding a new dynamic to the mix. This is according to the panel of speakers at the eighth annual press briefing held at the Reinsurance Rendez-Vous 2015 in Monte Carlo, by Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, a leading global risk and reinsurance specialist and a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies.

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7. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.

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8. Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward: Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy.

Read the article>>

 

9. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.

Read the article>>

 

10. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

Click here to register to receive e-mail updates >>

 

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