The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).
Archive for the ‘Chart Room’ Category
From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top ten Chart Room stories viewed during the second quarter of 2014:
1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.
2. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.
3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.
4. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is presented below. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.
5. Chart: Chile Holds Spot on Most Expensive Earthquakes for Insurers: In light of April’s 8.2 magnitude earthquake in Chile we highlight a spring 2013 GC Capital Ideas table ranking the most expensive earthquakes for insurers. A seismic event in 2010 put the South American nation on that list.
6. Chart: Confirmed Annual U.S. Tornado Activity: The chart reports confirmed annual U.S. tornado activity from 1950 to 2013 of F2 or higher strength with wind speeds of 113 mph and higher on the Fujita scale.
7. Chart: 2013 Catastrophe Bond Transactions: This table lists the 144A property/casualty catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2013.
8. Chart: Reserve Cycle Measured by Accident Year: In this chart Guy Carpenter is looking at the reserve cycle in a different way: by studying the booked ultimate loss by accident year. We choose accident year because actuaries typically analyze losses according to their year of accident. The estimate of the ultimate loss for a particular accident year ideally should not change over time if the initial estimate was correct. However, using U.S. industry data, we find that as a particular accident year is re-estimated periodically, a cycle appears.
9. Chart: Risk Capital Issued by Quarter: Property/casualty catastrophe bonds issuance in the period 1997 to 2013.
10. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.
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The chart shows that in 2012 there were over 850 insurers participating in the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA), writing over USD183 billion in premiums. Using the current 20 percent deductible requirement of TRIPRA and policyholder surplus as a filter, Guy Carpenter found that the smaller to mid-sized insurance carriers would be most affected should there be an increase in the deductible of any program that replaces TRIPRA. Without TRIPRA, insurers with less than USD300 million in surplus would likely need to incorporate additional private reinsurance market capacity to protect their capital and to satisfy rating agencies and regulators.
In this chart Guy Carpenter is looking at the reserve cycle in a different way: by studying the booked ultimate loss by accident year. We choose accident year because actuaries typically analyze losses according to their year of accident. The estimate of the ultimate loss for a particular accident year ideally should not change over time if the initial estimate was correct. However, using U.S. industry data, we find that as a particular accident year is re-estimated periodically, a cycle appears. Continue reading…
Here we update our review of some recent GC Capital Ideas stories related to the issue of terrorism, addressing the impact on both the insurance industry and technology:
New Marsh Report: Need for Terrorism Insurance Strong: A new report released by Guy Carpenter parent company, Marsh, confirms that demand for terrorism insurance remains strong and the existence of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) plays a key role in making coverage available and affordable.
Chart: Countries Operating Compulsory or Optional Terrorism Pools: A summary of the compulsory and optional terrorism pools that operate around the globe.
Range of Cyber Risks: Cyber risks range from legal liability and computer security breaches to privacy breaches of confidential information. Data breaches typically involve the intent to either copy, extract or destroy data. However, the risks that companies face transcend simple data incidents and often include the broader range of perils associated with the structural vulnerability of our economy to failures of technology generally. Further risks include cyber extortion, cyber terrorism, loss of revenue due to a computer attack, recovery costs, reputational damage and supply chain disruption.