Archive for the ‘Property’ Category



October 25th, 2014

Hurricane Seasons That Changed The Industry: Landmark 2005 Hurricane Season

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter & Company released Part II of the two-part Ten-Year Retrospective of the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. Part II focuses on the 2005 hurricane season and the cumulative impacts of both the 2004 and 2005 seasons on the (re)insurance industry as well as the changes made in response to these two landmark seasons from both catastrophe model vendors and rating agencies.

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October 21st, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo — Update

Posted at 10:32 AM ET

gonzalo-10-20-i-200Hurricane Gonzalo approached Bermuda late Friday as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, before making direct landfall as a strong Category 2. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 110 mph according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). The hurricane caused widespread structural damage and flooding, with downed trees and power lines. However, damage was less severe than expected, with no reported fatalities or major injuries in Bermuda. After clearing Bermuda, Gonzalo made a close approach to Atlantic Canada, bringing very large waves and storm force winds, but with minimal impacts. Gonzalo is now approaching the northern United Kingdom as a powerful post tropical cyclone, where it is expected to render very heavy rain and gusty winds exceeding 60 mph (100 kilometers per hour) over the next 24 hours.

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October 17th, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo — Update

Posted at 3:48 PM ET

gonzalo-10-17-i-200Hurricane Gonzalo is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and is expected to make a close approach to Bermuda, with closest approach this evening. Model guidance is in close agreement on this scenario. Gonzalo will be the strongest hurricane to affect Bermuda since Hurricane Fabian (2003), also a Category 3. Tropical storm winds are already affecting the island of Bermuda, and the onset of hurricane conditions is expected this afternoon. A significant surge event can be expected with battering 30 foot waves.

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October 16th, 2014

Hurricane Gonzalo

Posted at 4:11 PM ET

gonzalo-i-10-16-smallHurricane Gonzalo is forecast to make a direct hit or close approach to Bermuda sometime on Friday, most likely as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 kilometers) and 150 miles (240 kilometers) from the center of circulation, respectively. After clearing Bermuda, Gonzalo should eventually make landfall in Eastern Atlantic Canada as a strong post-tropical cyclone.

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October 6th, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Chart Room Entries: Third Quarter, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top ten Chart Room stories viewed during the third quarter of 2014:

1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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2. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.

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3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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4. Chart: U.S. Landfall To Basin Ratio - Detected Hurricanes (1900-2013): The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).

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5. Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.

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6. Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.

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7. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is shown in this chart. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.

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8. Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the first quarter, 2014.

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9. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.

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10. Chart: 2013 Catastrophe Bond Transactions: This table lists the 144A property/casualty catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2013.

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September 30th, 2014

Review of MENA Insights GC Videocast

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Here we review a recent series of GC Capital Ideas Videocast interviews with a panel of experts from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

GC Videocast - MENA Insights: Nick Frankland, CEO, Guy Carpenter’s EMEA Operations: Welcome to the beginning of a new series of video interviews with an esteemed panel of experts from the MENA region. The MENA Insights interviews, conducted by Guy Carpenter, offer a snapshot of how (re)insurance in MENA is developing and the many opportunities for (re)insurers.

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GC Videocast - MENA Insights: Dr. Cherif Chentir, Chief Underwriting Officer from SCOR SE: In our first MENA Insights interview, Dr. Cherif Chentir, Chief Underwriting Officer, Middle East, South Eastern Europe, Greece, Cyprus, Malta, SCOR SE, talks about the mega-projects taking place in the region and his belief that insurance penetration can only move in one direction. He looks back over his long career and charts the development of a market that has changed beyond all recognition.

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GC Videocast - MENA Insights: Michael Watson, Chairman and CEO, Canopius: In our second MENA Insights interview, Michael Watson, chairman and chief executive of Canopius, talks about how the MENA region has all the right ingredients for a growth-minded reinsurer, reveals what he thinks of Lloyd’s decision to open an office in the DIFC and why Canopius is considering establishing its own presence in the region.

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GC Videocast - MENA Insights: Fadi AbuNahl, Chief Executive, Trust Re: In our third MENA Insights interview Fadi AbuNahl, chief executive of Trust Re, describes how the MENA (re)insurance market has developed in recent years and what has prompted greater risk retention within the underlying market. He thinks there is plenty of reinsurance premium to go around but cautions against competing on price alone.

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GC Videocast - MENA Insights: Mahomed Akoob, Managing Director, Hannover Re Takaful: In our fourth MENA Insights interview Mahomed Akoob, managing director of Hannover Re Takaful, considers the huge potential of the Takaful and Retakaful market in the region, which he thinks could grow at a faster pace than Asia. Islamic finance is driving much of the demand for Shariah compliant insurance coverage to be taken out for major infrastructure projects.

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GC Videocast - MENA Insights Speaks To Guy Carpenter’s Chris Pleasant: In our fifth and final MENA Insights interview, Chris Pleasant, Managing Director of Guy Carpenter, offers an upbeat vision of the future. While the current soft market presents challenges, it belies the greater (re)insurance opportunity ahead. As local insurance markets mature and the approach to reinsurance buying becomes more sophisticated, MENA will enter the next chapter of growth.

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September 29th, 2014

TRIPRA Renewal Proposals

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The Republican-led Financial Services Committee in the House of Representatives put forward a draft proposal outline to reauthorize the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPRA) on May 1, 2014. After further negotiations, the House Republican leadership presented the TRIA Reform Act of 2014 on June 11 that proposes a five-year reauthorization of the federal program (to the end of 2019) with a similar copay structure to that of the Senate bill. The full senate passed their committee’s recommended version 93-4 on July 17, 2014. However, a number of changes have also been proposed that have the potential to impact the market if fully implemented, including higher program triggers for non-nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological (NBCR) events, an increase to the recoupment rate and an enhancement to the program’s taxpayer repayment requirements. The table below outlines the different terms and durations that have been put forward by the Senate and the House.

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September 25th, 2014

RMS Global Probabilistic Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

RMS released an updated Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) in July 2012, version 3.1.2. The new model revised the annual frequency of a terrorist attack on US soil. No updates were made to geographies outside the United States.

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September 24th, 2014

AIR US Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

AIR implemented significant model updates in version 13 of CLASIC/2TM, released in 2011. The updates impacted hazard components such as the target and landmark database, event frequency estimates and exposure and policy conditions.

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September 23rd, 2014

Commercial Terrorism Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers and other market participants perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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