Archive for the ‘Quarter in Review’ Category



July 8th, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Chart Room Entries: Second Quarter, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top ten Chart Room stories viewed during the second quarter of 2014:

1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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2. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.

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3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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4. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is presented below. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.

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5. Chart: Chile Holds Spot on Most Expensive Earthquakes for Insurers: In light of April’s 8.2 magnitude earthquake in Chile we highlight a spring 2013 GC Capital Ideas table ranking the most expensive earthquakes for insurers. A seismic event in 2010 put the South American nation on that list.

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6. Chart: Confirmed Annual U.S. Tornado Activity: The chart reports confirmed annual U.S. tornado activity from 1950 to 2013 of F2 or higher strength with wind speeds of 113 mph and higher on the Fujita scale.

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7. Chart: 2013 Catastrophe Bond Transactions: This table lists the 144A property/casualty catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2013.

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8. Chart: Reserve Cycle Measured by Accident Year: In this chart Guy Carpenter is looking at the reserve cycle in a different way: by studying the booked ultimate loss by accident year. We choose accident year because actuaries typically analyze losses according to their year of accident. The estimate of the ultimate loss for a particular accident year ideally should not change over time if the initial estimate was correct. However, using U.S. industry data, we find that as a particular accident year is re-estimated periodically, a cycle appears.

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9. Chart: Risk Capital Issued by Quarter: Property/casualty catastrophe bonds issuance in the period 1997 to 2013.

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10. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

July 2nd, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Second Quarter, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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2. April Renewals Bring Price Reductions & Focus on Tailored Coverage: Guy Carpenter reports that the April 1, 2014 renewal was marked by price reductions and more tailored reinsurance coverage. Strong balance sheets, an abundance of capacity and a consolidation of buying led to lower reinsurance pricing across most territories and business segments at the renewal.

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3. Reinsurance Pricing Falls Again at June 1, 2014 as Competition Heightens: Guy Carpenter reports that downward pressure on reinsurance pricing has increased since the June 1, 2013 renewal due to continued competitive pressure from alternative markets, strong reinsurer balance sheets and low loss experiences. In its June 2014 renewal briefing, Guy Carpenter reports that competition increased as markets offered abundant capacity at reduced pricing. Terms and conditions also came under pressure and multi-year transactions continued to be an area of investigation. Traditional reinsurers sought to protect their market share and alternative providers looked to utilize growing funds.

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4. The Total Value of Reinsurance for Long-Tail Business: Can we learn from Solvency II to unlock the hidden value of reinsurance for long-tail business?

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5. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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6. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.

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7. January 1, 2014 Renewals Bring Downward Pressure on Pricing: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that reinsurance rates-on-line fell at the January 1, 2014 renewal in nearly all classes and regions. According to Guy Carpenter’s 2014 global renewal report, strong balance sheets, relatively low loss experiences and an unprecedented influx of convergence capital spurred competition and innovation at renewal. These factors led in turn to surplus capacity across most business segments as competition spilled beyond property catastrophe lines.

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8. Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman Publish Third Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Report: Guy Carpenter and its sister company, Oliver Wyman, the international management consulting firm, published the third annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks in September of 2013.

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9. Catastrophe Bond Outlook for 2014: The growing influence of alternative markets capacity is pressuring traditional reinsurers’ business model and challenging them to compete against a model with lower-cost of capital that continues to enter the reinsurance market. Most reinsurance companies have responded to the challenge by leveraging their incumbent status on reinsurance programs, offering similar or better terms and similar or reduced pricing. Particularly, traditional players are emphasizing their ability to efficiently provide reinstatements, which are seen by many as a critical part of core reinsurance programs, particularly for working reinsurance layers.

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10. Industry Reserve Update - Which Way Is The Cycle Turning?: With the release of the 2013 annual statutory statements, we have updated the Guy Carpenter reserve cycle analysis as shown in the chart. Overall, the figures indicate a trend showing the industry continuing to release reserves through this year, as two lines of business appear to exert the greatest impact on the cycle.

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

April 8th, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: First Quarter 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. January 2014 Renewal Report: Capacity: Evolution, Innovation and Opportunity: The January 1, 2014 renewal saw rates on line (ROLs) fall significantly in nearly all regions and business segments as relatively low loss experiences, strong balance sheets and an influx of capital spurred competition and innovation in the reinsurance market. This culminated in a marketplace focused on meeting individual client needs as reinsurers reacted to the challenge posed by alternative markets and alternative markets, in turn, sought to deliver unique solutions. Insurers also looked to capitalize by adapting their buying strategies and prioritizing their risk transfer goals.

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2. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

Read the article>> 

 

3. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.

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4. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.

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5. Global Catastrophe Review, 2013: The year provided a respite for the (re)insurance industry following above-average losses in 2011 and 2012, with insured losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters estimated at around USD40 billion, according to Guy Carpenter & Company. This is considerably less than the ten-year average loss of approximately USD60 billion and well below the most significant years of 2005 and 2011. This can be partly attributed to the unusually quiet 2013 Atlantic tropical season. About 47 percent of insured losses in 2013 were reported in the Americas, 31 percent in Europe and 20 percent in Asia and Australasia.

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6. Chart: Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions: The chart ranks deals in 2013, as compiled by GC Securities*, a division of MMC Securities Corporation.

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7. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.

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8. Chart: U.S. Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Quoting Behavior: In this graphic, the January 1, 2014 average quote across all programs is represented by the line at 0 percent, while the red dots indicate reinsurers’ distances from the mean across all the programs that they quoted. The size of the line represents the variability from the average for all quotes provided by the reinsurer. Each reinsurer is represented across the bottom of the chart by its A.M. Best rating. Quotes representing non-concurrent terms were excluded.

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9. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is presented in this graphic. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.

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10. Chart: Pension Fund Capital Under Management and Allocations into Reinsurance: The illustration shows that pension funds alone are worth around USD30 trillion. Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis of possible capital allocation percentages to the (re)insurance space in consultation with sector experts, a maximum of USD900 billion of this amount could potentially be available for insurance-linked investments. This figure is, of course, much greater than currently needed, demonstrating the existing convergence-driven supply excess. Given Guy Carpenter estimates global property catastrophe limit is currently in excess of USD300 billion, and the insurance linked securities market only accounts for around 15 percent of this amount, pension funds have so far made very small investments in reinsurance relative to their overall size.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

January 8th, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Fourth Quarter 2013

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Convergence Capital’s Impact on the Reinsurance Market: The growth in convergence capital has resulted in insurance linked securities (ILS) catastrophe risk pricing decoupling from price expectations in the traditional reinsurance market, with some ILS products now offering the most competitive terms for reinsurance buyers. Strong appetite for U.S. hurricane catastrophe bonds, for example, has tightened spreads in the secondary market by an average of approximately 45 percent on a weighted notional basis since issuance in 2012. Despite the significant decrease in ILS pricing over the last 12 months, investor demand continues to be robust. Indeed, projections by GC Securities indicate that the catastrophe bond market alone could reach USD23 billion by the end of 2016.

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2. Demand for Asia Pacific Catastrophe Reinsurance at a Record High in 2013: Total Asia Pacific catastrophe limit purchased in 2013 increased for the tenth year in a row, but once again failed to keep pace with strong gross domestic product growth in the region, according to a new report released today by Guy Carpenter.

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3. July 1 Renewals Indicate Downward Pressure on Reinsurance Rates Likely to Continue through 2013: Guy Carpenter reports that reinsurance market rates on line (ROLs) continued to be driven by an influx of capital from third-party investors at the July 1 renewals, in spite of catastrophe losses reaching approximately USD20 billion during the first six months of 2013 (above the ten-year average for the period). In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that robust catastrophe bond, sidecar and collateralized reinsurance activity throughout the year has for the first time pushed pricing in the capital markets to “decouple” or breakaway from levels set by the traditional market. This has in turn prompted downward pressure on overall traditional market pricing.

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4. January 1, 2014 Renewals Bring Downward Pressure on Pricing: Guy Carpenter reports that reinsurance rates on line fell at the January 1, 2014 renewal in nearly all classes and regions. According to Guy Carpenter’s 2014 global renewal report, strong balance sheets, relatively low loss experiences and an unprecedented influx of convergence capital spurred competition and innovation at renewal. These factors led in turn to surplus capacity across most business segments as competition spilled beyond property catastrophe lines.

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5. Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable?: It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.

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6. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Click here to read article >>


7. Super Typhoon Haiyan: Super Typhoon Haiyan meets or surpasses the record of the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history, and is among the strongest ever recorded. Haiyan made landfall during the early morning hours of November 8 near Guiuan, with estimated 1-minute wind speeds of 185-195 mph.

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8. Indexation Clauses in Liability Reinsurance Treaties: A Comparison Across Europe: The Indexation Clause - otherwise referred to as the stability clause, inflation clause, or severe inflation clause - is designed to maintain the real monetary value of the retention and (where applicable) the limit under a long-tail excess of loss reinsurance treaty over the duration of the claims payout pattern. The clause is only relevant to losses that are of a long-tail nature (that take a long time to become paid) and is commonly found in the terms and conditions of motor liability, general liability and professional liability excess of loss reinsurance contracts of European cedents.

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9. Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.

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10. Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Rate on Line Index, January 2013: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance ROL index fell marginally at the January 1, 2013, renewal. This is the seventh consecutive annual renewal in which changes to the index have equaled 10 percent or less, indicating a global market with capacity appropriate to meet demand.

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October 8th, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Third Quarter 2013

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. July 1 Renewals Indicate Downward Pressure on Reinsurance Rates Likely to Continue through 2013: Guy Carpenter reports that reinsurance market rates on line (ROLs) continued to be driven by an influx of capital from third-party investors at the July 1 renewals, in spite of catastrophe losses reaching approximately USD20 billion during the first six months of 2013 (above the ten-year average for the period). In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that robust catastrophe bond, sidecar and collateralized reinsurance activity throughout the year has for the first time pushed pricing in the capital markets to “decouple” or breakaway from levels set by the traditional market. This has in turn prompted downward pressure on overall traditional market pricing.

Read the article >>

 

2. Influx of Convergence Capital Triggers Downward Pressure on Pricing at June 1 Renewals: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector has witnessed dynamic capital growth in 2012 and 2013, spurred by an influx of capital from alternative sources.

Read the article >>

 

3. Chart: Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit: The increasing influence of alternative capacity is demonstrated by the chart below, which shows the growth of convergence capacity as a percentage of global property catastrophe limit from 2008 to 2013 (projected).

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4. Rising Sea Levels Ranked as the Greatest Climate Change Threat: Guy Carpenter released today an analysis of the evolving risk landscape spurred by global warming. Climate change, global warming and the resulting landscape shift for risk management is a growing area of concern among governments, the general public, the private sector and the (re)insurance industry at large. According to the report, global warming is an established scientific fact that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.

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5. Guy Carpenter Mid-Year Report Highlights Catalysts for Growth in (Re)insurance Industry: Guy Carpenter released its mid-year market report, highlighting a time of dynamic capital growth in the reinsurance industry. As investors supply capacity through a convergence of alternative and traditional vehicles, the report details the ways in which this new supply of capital and excess capacity has changed the nature of the sector’s capital structure.

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6. The Total Value of Reinsurance for Long-Tail Business: Can we learn from Solvency II to unlock the hidden value of reinsurance for long-tail business? Reinsurance on a long-tail business such as casualty provides lasting capital benefits until the complete run off of the underlying business. It not only reduces underwriting risk, but also the future reserve risk for that book of business.

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7. 2013 Reinsurance Renewals Update: As we look toward the July 1 reinsurance renewal next week, here we review the key GC Capital Ideas stories that have covered the prior renewals this year.

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8. Effective Enterprise Risk Management: With Solvency II and similar regimes in place and still on the horizon in some countries, and the continuing evolution of rating agency requirements, the last decade has seen the (re)insurance industry fully embrace the practice of enterprise risk management (ERM). As a trusted advisor to (re)insurers globally, Guy Carpenter has observed firsthand what it takes to implement ERM successfully. An ERM program’s effectiveness may be enhanced with the benefit of adherence to a set of simple tenets.

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9. Cyber, Climate Change and Space Highlighted as Critical Emerging Risks in Guy Carpenter Report: Guy Carpenter published a new report highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber risk, climate change and space risk. The report seeks to identify pressing emerging risks confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.

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10. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article >>

 

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

July 3rd, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Second Quarter 2013

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. April 1 Renewals See Reinsurance Pricing Stabilize Amid Dynamic Capital Growth: Guy Carpenter reports that dynamic capital growth and ample reinsurance capacity resulted in a relatively stable renewal at April 1, 2013. In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that the convergence of traditional and alternative capital sources is changing the marketplace, with non-traditional capacity now making up an estimated 14 percent of global property catastrophe limit.

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2. Influx of Convergence Capital Triggers Downward Pressure on Pricing at June 1 Renewals: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector has witnessed dynamic capital growth in 2012 and 2013, spurred by an influx of capital from alternative sources. In its June 2013 renewal briefing, Guy Carpenter finds that this surge in alternative or “convergence” capital has changed the nature of the sector’s capital structure, as investors grow increasingly comfortable with supplying capacity through a convergence of both traditional and alternative vehicles. This market dynamic has also begun to impact significantly reinsurance pricing for peak property catastrophe risks in the U.S., with surplus capacity and lower target returns driving downward pressure on pricing for June 1 renewals and likely through the remainder of 2013.

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3. GC Securities*: First Quarter Cat Bond Activity Signals Robust Issuance Ahead: GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, today released an analysis of first quarter activity and trends within the catastrophe risk market for 2013. Two natural peril-exposed catastrophe bond transactions closed during the first quarter of 2013, for a total of USD520 million of issuance. This seemingly low level of primary issuance activity is deceiving, however, as activity in the capital markets and the influence of “non-traditional” capacity - a term that is rapidly approaching obsolescence - has never been higher.

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4. Chart: Five Most Expensive Earthquakes for Insurers: Over the last two years, several powerful earthquakes have caused widespread damage, leading to significant losses for (re)insurers. Four out of the five most costly earthquakes on record have occurred since the start of 2010, and all four of these events were located outside the United States.

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5. Chart: Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit: The increasing influence of alternative capacity is demonstrated by the chart below, which shows the growth of convergence capacity as a percentage of global property catastrophe limit from 2008 to 2013 (projected).

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6. Reinsurance Pricing Trends: Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts that have focused on 2013 reinsurance pricing trends.

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7. January 1, 2013 Renewals Bring Stable Reinsurance Pricing: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector enters 2013 equipped with ample dedicated capital and stable pricing. In its 2013 global renewal report, The Route to Profitable Growth, Guy Carpenter finds that the January 1, 2013 renewals took place against a stable backdrop, with only loss-affected lines and select regions experiencing price volatility. The market was supported by a combination of factors including lower than normal catastrophe losses during the first nine months of 2012, new reinsurance capacity and record-high levels of capital.

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8. Chart: Global Natural Catastrophe Losses: The extent of rising insured losses from global natural catastrophes over the last 40 years is illustrated below.

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9. Chart: Global Flood Risks and Flood Model Coverage by Three Main Modeling Vendors: Flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

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10. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article >>

 

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* Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

April 2nd, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: First Quarter 2013

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. January 1, 2013 Renewals Bring Stable Reinsurance Pricing: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector enters 2013 equipped with ample dedicated capital and stable pricing. In its 2013 global renewal report, The Route to Profitable Growth, Guy Carpenter finds that the January 1, 2013 renewals took place against a stable backdrop, with only loss-affected lines and select regions experiencing price volatility. The market was supported by a combination of factors including lower than normal catastrophe losses during the first nine months of 2012, new reinsurance capacity and record-high levels of capital.

Read the article >>

 

2. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article >>

 

3. Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Rate on Line Index, January 2013: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Rate on Line index fell marginally at the January 1, 2013, renewal. This is the seventh consecutive annual renewal in which changes to the index have equaled 10 percent or less, indicating a global market with capacity appropriate to meet demand.

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4. Guy Carpenter’s January 1 Reinsurance Renewals Press Briefing: Nick Frankland: Guy Carpenter’s 2013 Reinsurance Renewal Report Executive Summary was discussed at a press briefing held in London on January 3. It reports that the reinsurance sector enters 2013 equipped with ample dedicated capital and stable pricing. Guy Carpenter found that the January 1, 2013, renewals took place against a stable backdrop, with only loss-affected lines and select regions experiencing price volatility.

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5. Chart: Guy Carpenter Regional Rate on Line Index, January 2013: There was variation regionally in the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Rate on Line Index. U.S. property catastrophe pricing was most affected by the landfall of Superstorm Sandy while other regions were flat to down.

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6. Chart: Global Significant Insured Losses, 2011 to Q4 2012: 2012 insured losses in aggregate were “normal.”

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7. Indexation Clauses in Liability Reinsurance Treaties: A Comparison Across Europe: The Indexation Clause - otherwise referred to as the Stability Clause, Inflation Clause or Severe Inflation Clause (SIC) - is designed to maintain the real monetary value of the retention and (where applicable) the limit under a long-tail excess of loss (XL) reinsurance treaty over the duration of the claims payout pattern.

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8. Capital Model Trends: Here we highlight recent stories that have appeared on GC Capital Ideas discussing trends around capital models.

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9. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our popular series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

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10. Periodic Payment Orders - Issues and Implications for Reinsurance: Following the passage of the Courts Act 2003, which gave courts in England and Wales the power to impose rest-of-life structured settlements, known as periodical payment orders (PPOs) to provide for the long-term care and loss of earnings of severely injured third parties, the actual incidence of such awards in the market has been relatively low. It is clear however that the trend towards PPOs has accelerated over the past year, partly driven by low interest rates. This trend presents real challenges to both insurers and reinsurers of casualty classes, particularly for motor.

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January 10th, 2013

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Fourth Quarter 2012

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Risk Profile, Appetite and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article >>

 

2. Superstorm Sandy: Initial Impacts and Implications: Guy Carpenter has published a new briefing. As documented by the National Hurricane Center, Superstorm Sandy made landfall as a post-tropical cyclone at 8PM EDT, Monday Oct 29, 2012, with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour.

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3. Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand.

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4. Terrorism: Global Terror Attacks and Hotspots: The increasingly diverse and dispersed threat has seen worldwide terrorist activity rise in recent years. The number of global terrorist attacks peaked at more than 14,400 in 2006. Although there has been a slight dip in the number of attacks over the last five years, they remain at historically high levels. Attacks increased dramatically in Afghanistan and Iraq following the deployment of coalition combat troops. Several other countries have also witnessed a big jump in terrorist activity recently, including Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.

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5. Comparing Solvency II Standard Scenarios for Windstorms with Catastrophe Model Outcomes - Updated Study: With the generalized use of catastrophe models to measure the natural catastrophe exposure of insurance portfolios, the outcomes of these models have more and more influence in the determination of reinsurance needs. With the introduction of the Solvency II regime, the decision on reinsurance purchase should also be an integral part of a company’s risk management process.

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6. Guy Carpenter Publishes Second Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Report: Guy Carpenter has published its second annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks, a resource designed to help insurers assess risk parameters and improve economic capital modeling. The report provides benchmarks for underwriting and reserve risk by line of business and by industry segment for U.S. exposures, and can be used by insurers when benchmarking their economic capital models.

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7. Indexation Clauses in Liability Reinsurance Treaties: A Comparison Across Europe: The Indexation Clause - otherwise referred to as the Stability Clause, Inflation Clause or Severe Inflation Clause (SIC) - is designed to maintain the real monetary value of the retention and (where applicable) the limit under a long-tail excess of loss reinsurance treaty over the duration of the claims payout pattern. The clause is only relevant to losses that are of a long-tail nature (i.e., that take a long time to become paid) and is commonly found in the terms and conditions of motor liability, general liability and professional liability third party loss excess of loss reinsurance contracts of European cedents.

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8. Reinsurance Protection: Aggregate Covers: Reinsurance remains the best form of protection against catastrophe losses. Following the increased frequency of major catastrophic events witnessed in 2010 and 2011, many companies are revisiting the benefits of aggregate coverage. Aggregate coverage has long been offered in the reinsurance market because it is a solution that focuses on mitigating the impact of the frequency of loss. While much of the focus for catastrophe coverage is around severe shock losses, aggregates are also useful for horizontal coverage needs or a combination of frequency and severity.

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9. Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.

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10. Periodic Payment Orders - Issues and Implications for Reinsurance: Following the passage of the Courts Act 2003, which gave courts in England and Wales the power to impose rest-of-life structured settlements, known as periodical payment orders (PPOs), to provide for the long-term care and loss of earnings of severely injured third parties, the actual incidence of such awards in the market has been relatively low. It is clear however that the trend towards PPOs has accelerated over the past year, partly driven by low interest rates. This trend presents real challenges to both insurers and reinsurers of casualty classes, particularly for motor.

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