Archive for the ‘Week in Review’ Category



May 27th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: May 21 - 27, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

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Cyber Risk: As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

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Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

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GC Securities* Completes Catastrophe Bond Queen Street XII Re dac on behalf of Munich Re: GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, announced the placement of a single class of Principal At-Risk Variable Rate Notes (”Notes”) with a principal amount of USD 190,000,000 through the newly formed designated activity company (”dac”) domiciled in Ireland, Queen Street XII Re dac, to benefit Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft Aktiengesellschaft in München (”Munich Re”).  This is the largest issuance of the eleven issuances in Munich Re’s Queen Street series since 2011 and the second largest issuance of all Munich Re’s Queen Street series. Additionally, Queen Street XII Re dac is the first special purpose vehicle authorized for the purposes of Directive 2009/138/EC (as amended) (”Solvency II Directive”) in the 144A catastrophe bond market.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Insured Versus Uninsured Loss: There are a number of factors that contribute to the gap between economic loss and insured loss and as new risks emerge such as climate change and political risk, this gap will only continue to widen.

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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

May 20th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: May 14 - 20, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

Read the article>>


Stochastic-based BCAR: Do You Understand Your “Capital-print”?: Technology and innovation continue to change the world around us, creating both opportunities and new challenges for the (re)insurance industry. Advances in risk quantification such as predictive analytics and capital modeling, to name a few, are changing the way we underwrite, price and manage risk. Similarly, technology is allowing A.M. Best (Best’s) to advance the analytics of risk supporting its assessment of balance sheet strength. Taking advantage of stochastic modeling technology, the evaluation of risk within Best’s capital model is undergoing a fairly substantial overhaul to broaden the lens used to analyze risk relative to capital. The technology allows efficient production of multiple capital metrics adjusted for a range of risk levels rather than risk represented by just one data point, providing deeper insights into balance sheet strength, risk profile and risk appetite.

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Risk Analytic Tools: Public sector-related data can be expansive, containing census data, property risk characteristics, historical loss information, risk rating matrices and natural hazard event scientific tracking. In order to facilitate packaging the sometimes unwieldy data in a way that is useful for risk decision making, utilizing outside resources to improve data transparency can be valuable. Public sector resources devoted to building tools that measure risks that are perceived as “uninsurable” can unlock private sector funding.

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Fort McMurray Wildfires - Canada: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have helped to reduce spread of the wildfire that recently rendered devastating impacts to Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Nevertheless, the fire continues to grow outside the city and has now claimed 2,020 square kilometers (790 square miles), according to media reports. A general trend of cooler temperatures is expected through this week, before another warming trend next weekend.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


And, You May Have Missed…

Escalating Medical Costs: The impact of rising healthcare expenses has been and will continue to be felt around the world, in developed and undeveloped nations alike. Rising healthcare costs are putting a strain on governments worldwide. Nowhere in the world, however, are expenses as high as they are in the United States, where the impact extends into the medical component of workers compensation costs. Although the rate of growth has seen some stability, it still outpaces the US growth rate of inflation. The figure below illustrates that per capita spending in the United States in 2010 was over USD 8,000. A key driver for higher US costs is that it spends more on hospital care and medical specialists. Hospital costs are 60 percent higher in the United States than in other Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Spending on the use of specialists is more than two times higher. Forecasters believe this trend will increase.

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May 13th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: May 7 - 13, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Fort McMurray Wildfires - Canada: Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have helped to reduce spread of the wildfire that recently rendered devastating impacts to Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada. Nevertheless, the fire continues to grow outside the city and has now claimed 2,020 square kilometers (790 square miles), according to media reports. A general trend of cooler temperatures is expected through this week, before another warming trend next weekend.

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Guy Carpenter Reports on Kumamoto Earthquake, Seismic Risk and Earthquake Cover in Japan: Guy Carpenter & Company released a briefing and analysis of the Kumamoto Earthquake that struck Japan in April 2016.

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The Emerging Risks Quandary, Anticipating Threats Hidden in Plain Sight: Marsh & McLennan Companies’ Global Risk Center has published a report, The Emerging Risks Quandary. Many companies struggle to articulate the precise relevance of global and emerging risks to their business, and are poorly organized to make timely decisions. This report explores what impedes corporate efforts and sets out how companies can blend creativity and pragmatism to look beyond predictable and controllable risks to complex uncertainties that have the potential to generate more than mere volatility in corporate earnings.

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China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>


Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


And, You May Have Missed…

Meeting the Challenges: Regulatory Advisory: The regulatory issues facing insurers and reinsurers today often require highly specialized expertise that may not be readily accessible to clients - from taking credit for reinsurance on financial statements to complying with regulatory requirements in contract wordings to shepherding new products through the approval process. Guy Carpenter Strategic Advisory℠ has a team of professionals whose deep expertise and knowledge can help companies navigate the regulatory realm.

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May 6th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 30 – May 6, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Increasing Confidence and Transparency in Your Catastrophe Risk Decisions: Could you afford to find that the portfolio you just acquired in North Carolina is more exposed to hurricane than previously assumed? What if next year’s Category 2 hurricane caused a loss in excess of 15 percent of your policyholders’ surplus?  How will the changes in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps impact your exposure to earthquake risk in the central and eastern United States?

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Fort McMurray Wildfires - Canada: Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada has suffered widespread and severe impacts as a result of wildfire activity. Media reports indicate that over 80,000 people have been evacuated. No serious injuries or deaths have been reported, however, the fire has destroyed homes in several neighborhoods. Our first thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by this event.

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China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>


Partnerships: The Way To Public Sector Risk Financing: The impact that catastrophic loss can have on the fiscal position and tax base of government entities across the globe is significant. Impacted areas can take decades to recover when economic recovery is limited. Approximately 73 percent or USD 2.7 trillion of natural catastrophe losses globally between 1970 and 2014 were uninsured. The creation of private sector pre-financing options will not only relieve the burden on taxpayers and in turn, public finances, but will migrate the management of these catastrophes to insurance and reinsurance companies where claims handling and risk management is core to their operations. This allows local economies to come back on line more quickly.

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Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>


And, You May Have Missed…

Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks: As discussed in the Executive Summary of this report, the term “crystalization of risk” refers to the timescale over which we realize that the risk is manifesting itself and how this view changes until ultimate understanding of quantum is reached and all liabilities are discharged. The “Reserving Risks” section in last year’s report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks looked at how information emerges in the presence of reserving cycles. The profit or loss in any particular financial year is made up of not only the profit or loss from the same accident year but also any recognized changes in the reserves on prior years.

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April 29th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 23 - 29, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter Announces Senior Promotion and Appointment: Guy Carpenter & Company announced that Peter Stubbings has been promoted to CEO of the firm’s Bermuda operations, with immediate effect. In addition, Richard Keegan is to join the Bermuda team as Senior Vice President in May.

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Transferring Public-Held Risk to the Private Sector Markets: Fiscal constraints are increasing across many developed and emerging economies amid growing catastrophic loss potential brought on by the geopolitical climate, demographic trends and global climate change. As a result, heads of government, international trade organizations and private sector risk bearers are increasing their calls to reexamine the roles and responsibilities of society to better manage these complicated risks.

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Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward: Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy.

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Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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Update on China Counterparty Risk Charges for Offshore Reinsurers: China’s developing insurance market is a potential bright spot for growth in an otherwise challenging landscape for global reinsurers. Driven by a maturing economy and expected increases in household penetration ratios, property/casualty insurance premium, totaling USD 121.6 billion in 2014, is projected to increase to roughly USD 300 billion by 2030.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Cat Bond Pricing Dynamics, Fourth Quarter 2015: Pricing dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2015 were mixed, with bonds trading in different directions based on the risk level, peril exposure and relative market size rather than the market shifting categorically in one direction across all names. The typical fourth quarter “Dead Cat” market (in which bonds prior to their scheduled redemption date that have little to no remaining modeled risk exposure are still paying their full scheduled coupon) was active. Notably however, the required return for Dead Cat liquidity providers in the fourth quarter of 2015 averaged 255 basis points per annum, whereas in the fourth quarter of 2014 the required return was averaged closer to 220 basis points.

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April 22nd, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 16 - 22, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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Public Sector Risk: Conclusion: We have seen significant growth in public sector entities transferring risk to the reinsurance market utilizing traditional risk transfer structures and alternative risk transfer structures such as collateralized reinsurance and catastrophe bonds.

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7.8 Mw Earthquake Near Ecuador Coast: A Mw 7.8 earthquake struck the Esmeralda Province near the west coast of northern Ecuador on April 16, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. The quake occurred at 6:58 PM local time (23:58 UTC) about 17 miles (27 km) south-southeast of Muisne and about 106 miles (170 km) west-northwest of Quito, the capital of Ecuador.

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U.S. Southern Plains Flooding: In southeast Texas, a significant flood event has affected the Greater Houston Metro area as well as areas north and west. Heavy and persistent rainfall has produced catastrophic flooding, enabled by a slow-moving upper low and frontal boundary, together with available moisture. Record daily rainfall amounts were observed at Houston International Airport, with amounts of 15 to 18 inches reported north and west of the Houston area. National Weather Service flood and flash flood watches and warnings remain active for areas of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and some additional rainfall is expected with thunderstorms. Media reports indicate at least seven fatalities and first responders expect this number to rise. Reports indicate that over 1,000 homes have been inundated.

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Life, Health and Longevity Emerging Risks: In the last 150 years, dramatic improvements have been made in life expectancy. Some developments such as immunizations for smallpox, polio and measles created quantum improvements, while the proliferation of better lifestyles, clean water and more nutritious diets provided gradual and continuing change. While most historical life expectancy developments resulted from improvement in children’s mortality, in the 20th century, mortality rates declined significantly for older ages.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Regulation: A World View: Financial market regulation has been under review for a number of years but the global financial crisis in 2008 made it a key priority in many countries. While the previous insurance regulatory framework did remarkably well in the protection of insurance consumers and companies during the financial crisis, the insurance industry has not been immune from these factors. Today, new and upcoming regulations are having a profound impact on companies’ balance sheets and risk management practices. Although primarily aimed at larger, global (re)insurers, the changes will impact medium and small (re)insurers as well.

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April 15th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 9 - 15, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the year end, 2015 compared to the year end, 2014.

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US Residual Markets: The US residual property insurance market segment is comprised of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans, Beach and Windstorm Plans and two state run insurance companies - Florida Citizens Property Insurance Company (Florida Citizens) and Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Louisiana Citizens). These insurance facilities grew out of the civil strife in the 1960s to ensure continued access to insurance in urban areas. Over time they have evolved and their mandate has grown beyond their urban focus. Today these facilities are significant providers of some of the most wind- and earthquake-exposed property insurance in the country.

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Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, YE 2015: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through year end 2015.

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>> 

 

China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>

 

And, You May Have Missed…

Catastrophe Bond: Fourth Quarter Primary Issuance: After 2015 began with record historical issuance levels in the first quarter, the fourth quarter of 2015 was dramatically different as only USD 1.425 billion of 144A property and casualty (P&C) catastrophe bonds benefiting five sponsors were completed. This represented the second lowest level since 2005 and the lowest level since 2009. One explanation for this development may be that sponsors who would ordinarily have been willing to issue in the fourth quarter of the calendar year may have had the flexibility to delay their issuance to the following first quarter in order to obtain best execution and/or avoid transaction crowding. We view sponsors’ willingness to focus on best execution rather than specific renewal dates (while still important for overall capital planning purposes) as a further sign of the maturity of the insurance-linked securities (ILS) space.

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April 8th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: April 2 - 8, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>

 

China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

Read the article>>

 

Evolution of Risk Capital: The continued flow of new capital into the (re)insurance industry constitutes the largest change to the sector’s capital structure in recent memory. New capital has entered the market through investments in insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds, sidecars, hedge fund-backed reinsurance companies and collateralized reinsurance vehicles. Investors have increasingly been attracted to low correlation returns from catastrophe risk relative to traditional capital markets risks and the attractive yield for the measured (re)insurance risk relative to other investments, particularly in the current low inflation, low yield era.

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Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015.

Read the article>>

 

Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

And, You May Have Missed…

The Rise of Emerging Risk and Casualty Catastrophe Models: The modeling of emerging and casualty catastrophe risks remains challenging and the models continue to vary in their approach, level of development and industry acceptance. With the potential scenarios numerous, diverse and constantly changing, there is no single model or approach that could contemplate all of them. Furthermore, the various disaster scenarios with which carriers are being increasingly confronted needs to be prioritized and synthesized within their enterprise risk management framework. By their very definition, there may be limited data on hand on which to base any modeling. As a result, much of the industry continues to rely on multiple models and actuarial approaches that encompass model applications, probable maximum loss (PML) estimates, realistic disaster scenarios, experience and exposure ratings to create a broad set of scenarios and deterministic views.

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April 1st, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: March 26 – April 1, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Risk Analytic Tools: Public sector-related data can be expansive, containing census data, property risk characteristics, historical loss information, risk rating matrices and natural hazard event scientific tracking. In order to facilitate packaging the sometimes unwieldy data in a way that is useful for risk decision making, utilizing outside resources to improve data transparency can be valuable. Public sector resources devoted to building tools that measure risks that are perceived as “uninsurable” can unlock private sector funding.

Read the article>>

 

Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

Guy Carpenter Reports Stable Capital at January 1, 2016 Renewals: Guy Carpenter & Company reports that overall capital levels dedicated to reinsurance have stabilized, showing no growth for the first time in several years.  In a highly competitive environment, companies assessed broader opportunities and the rate of incoming capital slowed. However, moderate loss experience kept capacity at abundant levels for the January 1, 2016 renewals. The continued scarcity of costly catastrophe losses and more than adequate capacity led to reinsurance pricing reductions, although there are signs the rate of descent is slowing as compared to 2015. 

Read the article>>

 

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.

Read the article>>

 

Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Reserving and Capital Setting: Conclusion: The obvious response to the issues emerging risks provide is to make sure reserves and capital position are more than robust enough for any eventuality - however remote - and then release them when the risks fail to materialize. But, there are many arguments against this as a practical strategy.

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March 25th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: March 19 - 25, 2016

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Public Sector Risk: Terrorism: A number of countries provide for government supported terrorism risk transfer solutions to manage global threats of terrorism. The actual mechanisms employed are a spectrum between loan and direct support, as illustrated in the chart below.

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Guy Carpenter Cites El Niño and North Atlantic Oscillation as Key Climate Drivers in 2015: Guy Carpenter reported that 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, while a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was evident both at the beginning and close of the year.

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Guy Carpenter Launches GC AdvantagePoint® 2.0, The Latest Version Of Its Advanced Risk Management Platform: Guy Carpenter announced the launch of GC AdvantagePoint® 2.0, the latest release of its cutting edge client portfolio and risk management platform.

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Chart: Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions for 2015: The table lists the top ten catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2015.

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Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem: There are three main questions to be tackled in sequence:

1. Which emerging risks potentially expose my company?

2. What means do I have to quantify those risks?

3. How are these risks likely to crystalize?

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And, You May Have Missed…

Chart: Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit: The chart presents alternative capital capacity as a percentage of global property catastrophe reinsurance limit from 2008 to year-end 2015.

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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSE L), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities LLC, MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.