January 12th, 2017
GC Capital Ideas Top CAT-i Stories: 2016
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here is a look back at the top CAT-i stories for the year 2016.
Archive for the ‘Year in Review’ Category
January 9th, 2017
GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: For The Year 2016
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
A look back at 2016’s most viewed stories.
1. China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.
2. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.
3. Guy Carpenter Forms Strategic Alliance to Develop Cyber Aggregation Model: Guy Carpenter & Company announced the formation of a strategic alliance with Symantec Corporation, a global leader in cyber security, to create a cyber aggregation model. The model will include a comprehensive catalogue of cyber scenarios from which insurers can derive frequency and severity distributions to measure the potential financial impact of loss from both affirmative cyber coverages and “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.
4. Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) Framework: (Re)insurers that are required to implement Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA), or a similar framework such as Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP), may benefit by adopting a strong ORSA/enterprise risk management (ERM) framework. One such framework that could work on a global basis is illustrated below
5. Evolution of Risk Capital: The continued flow of new capital into the (re)insurance industry constitutes the largest change to the sector’s capital structure in recent memory. New capital has entered the market through investments in insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds, sidecars, hedge fund-backed reinsurance companies and collateralized reinsurance vehicles. Investors have increasingly been attracted to low correlation returns from catastrophe risk relative to traditional capital markets risks and the attractive yield for the measured (re)insurance risk relative to other investments, particularly in the current low inflation, low yield era.
6. Insured Versus Uninsured Loss: There are a number of factors that contribute to the gap between economic loss and insured loss and as new risks emerge such as climate change and political risk, this gap will only continue to widen.
7. Chart: Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions for 2015: The table lists the top ten catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2015.
8. The Insurance Of Things & Industry 4.0 - A Matrix View: Technological progress and the accumulation of assets have not only stimulated the development of insurance products; they have in turn been nurtured by the availability of these offerings.
9. Potential Losses From the Kumamoto Earthquake: The catastrophe modeling firm RMS estimated the economic loss for property risks to be between USD2.5 billion and USD3.5 billion. This estimate includes only residential, commercial, and industrial property and contents. Catastrophe modeling firm AIR estimated the insured loss to be between USD1.7 billion and USD2.9 billion for property risks. Both catastrophe modeling firms’ estimates exclude infrastructure, business interruption and contingent business interruption.
10. Hurricane Matthew: Hurricane Matthew became a rare Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The hurricane followed the western edge of a subtropical ridge to inflict catastrophic damage to Haiti as a Category 4 hurricane before crossing eastern Cuba, and turning to the northwest through the Bahamas towards Florida.
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January 12th, 2016
GC Capital Ideas Top Chart Room Entries: For the Year 2015
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top Chart Room stories viewed during the year of 2015:
1. Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.
2. Q1 Cat Bond Issuance Reaches Historic Volume: Chart presents the 144A P&C catastrophe bond issuance from 1998 through the first quarter of 2015. The first quarter is particularly active in terms of issuance for the P&C cat bond market and this characteristic continued into 2015 as USD1.49 billion of 144A P&C cat bond limit was successfully placed with investors, the highest first quarter volume in history.
3. Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2015: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter 2015.
4. Combined Ratio For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q3 2015: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through third quarter 2015.
5. Private Cat Bond Market, First Half, 2015: Chart shows the private catastrophe bond market with USD 753.1 million of limit placed in rule 4(2) private placement format via fifteen transactions in the first six months of 2015. The 2015 year-to-date volume exceeded total full-year issuance in 2014 of USD 561.5 million.
Click here to view additional materials in GC Capital Ideas’ Chart Room >>
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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
January 11th, 2016
GC Capital Ideas Top CAT-i Stories: For The Year 2015
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here is a look back at the top CAT-i stories for the year 2015.
1. 7.8 Mw Earthquake - Lamjung, Nepal: Nepal experienced a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on April 25, followed by two major aftershocks on April 25 and 26 of magnitude 6.6 and 6.7, respectively, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Media reports indicate at least 5,582 fatalities, 11,200 injuries, and at least eight million people affected. Infrastructure and transportation routes have been severely disrupted and food and water shortages are of great concern. The USGS PAGER service estimates most probable economic losses between USD1 and USD10 billion. It is clear from media reports that impacts have been widespread and of excessive severity and our first thoughts and concerns are with the millions affected by this tragic event.
2. Typhoon Soudelor: Typhoon Soudelor made landfall in Hualien County, Taiwan at about 05:00 CST Saturday (21:00 UTC Friday), with one-minute sustained winds of 120 mph (195 kilometers per hour) according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Soudelor brought excessive rainfall and strong winds to Taiwan, causing inland flooding, mudslides and reports of widespread damage.
3. Winter Storm - January 26 - 28, 2015: The intense coastal storm is now clearing Atlantic Canada and steadily weakening. Blizzard and winter storm warnings have been discontinued, although winter weather advisories remain for select areas of New England. This storm lived up to expectations as an intense, impactful, and historic coastal storm, despite challenges on the forecast track and the especially sharp edge of the snow shield. Blizzard conditions with snowfall amounts of two to three feet affected a widespread area of New England and wind gusts exceeded hurricane force in some areas. The strong winds also produced a storm surge with greatest severity to coastal Massachusetts.
4. 8.3 Mw Earthquake Near Illapel, Chile: Chile experienced an 8.3-magnitude earthquake on September 16, followed by dozens of aftershocks, including one at magnitude 7.0 and seven at magnitude 6.0 or above. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the earthquake occurred near the coast of Coquimbo, about 46 kilometers (29 miles) west of Illapel at 19:54 local time. A tsunami warning was issued for the entire coast of Chile but has since been lifted. Initial media reports indicate at least 11 fatalities, although emergency crews are still accessing affected areas. The earthquake has forced more than one million people to evacuate from their homes and electrical power was cut off to 240,000 households. Heavy waves following the earthquake caused flooding in coastal towns although most buildings were reported to hold up well. The USGS pager service estimates most probable economic losses between USD 100 million and USD 1 billion. Our first thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by this event.
5. U.S. Texas and Oklahoma Flooding: Another round of heavy thunderstorms and intense rainfall affected the Southern Plains over the weekend. This follows a month of excessive rainfall in the area, with frequent periods of organized and slow-moving intense thunderstorms. Widespread and severe flooding has affected many areas, including flash flooding in both the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth areas. Many area rivers have yet to crest after the last round of heavy rainfall.
6. Hurricane Patricia: Hurricane Patricia made landfall on the Pacific Coast of Mexico as a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Patricia was a compact storm, and made landfall in an area of relatively low population density. Reported impacts in the immediate landfall area are severe. However, the track and compact nature of Patricia appears to have spared Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo and Guadalajara from the most severe impacts, according to media reports.
7. U.S. South Carolina Flooding: Torrential rainfall in South Carolina led to catastrophic flooding throughout the state over the weekend, claiming the lives of at least nine people. Large swaths of the state have experienced over 20 inches of rain in the past week with another two to six inches forecasted through Monday, according to the state climatologist.
8. Tropical Storm Bill: Tropical Storm Bill made landfall at about 11:45 CDT (16:45 UTC) yesterday on Matagorda Island, Texas, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 60 mph according to the NHC. Bill inflicted storm force winds, a storm surge of at least three feet and heavy rainfall to an area still saturated from the excessive rains of last month.
9. Valley and Butte Wildfires - United States: Central and Northern California, two wildfires have consumed over 133,000 acres and destroyed at least 750 homes and ten businesses in a matter of days. The fires have altogether displaced at least 23,000, according to media sources, and a state of emergency has been declared for affected areas by Governor Jerry Brown. Nearly 6,400 firefighters have been mobilized to combat the two fires, according to the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC).
10. Winter Storm - December 26 - 29, 2015: A complex frontal system has rendered significant impacts to the Southern, Southwestern, and Midwestern States, with an ongoing threat from the Midwest to the Saint Lawrence Valley to the Northeast. The system brought severe thunderstorms to the Northern Gulf states, with a confirmed EF-4 tornado affecting the Dallas area, causing several fatalities and extensive structural damage. Excessive rainfall has produced significant and historic flooding in the Central Mississippi Valley. Significant winter weather including heavy snow and ice continues to threaten areas from the Midwest to the Northeast, after nearly 40 inches of snowfall in New Mexico and over half an inch of ice reported from Texas to Illinois. Significant power outages have been reported for some areas. Transportation disruption has been especially severe for both land and air.
January 7th, 2016
GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: For the Year 2015
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
A look back at 2015’s most viewed stories.
1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2015: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2015.
2. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.
3. Microinsurance Consortium and Venture Incubator Announces New Name: The Microinsurance Consortium, led by a group of leading companies in the insurance industry, announced a new name for their microinsurance venture incubator (MVI) - Blue Marble Microinsurance. The consortium consists of American International Group, Inc., Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited, Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC together with Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc., Hamilton Insurance Group, Ltd., Old Mutual plc, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, XL Catlin, and Zurich Insurance Group.
4. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.
5. Port of Tianjin Explosions Set to Become One of Asia’s Largest Insured Man-Made Loss Events: Potential Losses Between USD 1.6 Billion to USD 3.3 Billion: Guy Carpenter released a report on the Port of Tianjin Explosions. The report provides initial loss estimates and outlines the many variables involved in assessing the losses emanating from the two massive initial explosions that occurred at Tianjin Port on August 12 of this year.
6. Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.
7. Guy Carpenter Mid-Year Review Assesses Key Industry Trends: Guy Carpenter released its 2015 Mid-Year Report on the (re)insurance landscape. In addition to providing a brief recap of renewal activity highlighted in their release on July 9, the report assesses key industry trends, including a detailed assessment of mergers and acquisitions activity and highlights other notable themes such as cyber security risk, increased regulation and public-private partnerships.
8. June 1, 2015 Renewals Show Rate of Price Declines Moderating: Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, a leading global risk and reinsurance specialist and a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies (NYSE:MMC), reports that after two years of price decreases averaging 15 percent on U.S. property catastrophe placements, risk-adjusted pricing moderated at the most recent June renewals.
9. Capital Optimization: Using Internal Reinsurance for Group Capital Management: Increased capital efficiency remains at the forefront of (re)insurers’ strategies - owing largely to the pending introduction of the Solvency II regime, rating agency capital requirements and the continued pressure around shareholder expectations.
10. Reinsurance Versus Subordinate Debt: Which Is Best for Solvency Capital?: In recent months a number of market commentators have opined on the merits of proportional reinsurance versus subordinated debt (sub debt), some favoring reinsurance solutions and some favoring sub debt, but generally finding results in line with the products their companies offered. Guy Carpenter feels reinsurance or sub debt alone is unlikely to provide the best solution to meet solvency capital requirements. Instead, a blended approach should be considered.
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January 14th, 2015
GC Capital Ideas Top CAT-I Stories: For the Year 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here is a look back at the 10 most popular CAT-i stories for 2014.
1. Severe Weather Outbreak in U.S.: April 26 to 30, 2014: A multi-day severe weather outbreak rendered severe impacts from April 26 to 30 affecting a large area of the United States. The outbreak occurred along a powerful spring frontal system that evolved from the Southern Rockies and pressed towards the Southern Great Lakes and affected the Atlantic Coast. According to the U.S. Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there were widespread reports of straight-line (nontornadic) wind and hail over the Southern States, Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. Tornado reports were widespread, with strong to violent tornadoes reported in states including Alabama, Arkansas, Kansas, Tennessee, Iowa and Mississippi. Severe flooding was also reported in Alabama and Florida.
2. Balkans Floods: Heavy rain caused widespread flooding across several countries in the Balkans region of Southeast Europe. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia were badly affected by the floods in May. According to Serbia’s Meteorological Institute, three months’ worth of rain fell in just three days in mid-May, resulting in the worst floods to hit the country since rainfall measurements began some 120 years ago. Bosnia also experienced its heaviest rainfall since records began in 1894, reports said.
3. 6.0Mw Earthquake - American Canyon, California: A 6.0-magnitude earthquake was reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) about 4 miles northwest of American Canyon, California and five miles north-northwest of Napa, California. The quake occurred at 3:20 a.m. local time (10:20 UTC) near the north shore of San Pablo Bay, with a magnitude of 6.0. The quake depth was 7.0 miles (11.3 km).
4. 8.2Mw Earthquake Near Chile Coast: An 8.2-magnitude earthquake was reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) about 40 miles off the northern coast of Chile on the evening of April 1. More than 60 aftershocks were reported following the initial event, one of which was measured of magnitude 6.2. Shaking was felt as far away as La Paz Bolivia, over 290 miles (470 km) away.
5. Severe Weather Outbreak In U.S.: June 3, 2014: A severe weather outbreak led to excessive wind gusts, significant hail, and a handful of tornadoes on June 3, according to reports. The area most severely affected covered the eastern two thirds of Nebraska together with portions of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Illinois.
6. Hurricane Gonzalo: Hurricane Gonzalo was forecast to make a direct hit or close approach to Bermuda sometime on Friday, October 17, most likely as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane and tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 45 miles (75 kilometers) and 150 miles (240 kilometers) from the center of circulation, respectively.
7. Hurricane Arthur: Hurricane Arthur was the first hurricane to make U.S. landfall since 2012, and the earliest to make North Carolina landfall for any hurricane season since 1908. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Arthur made landfall in North Carolina on July 3 at about 11:15 p.m. EDT (0315 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/hr).
8. Hurricane Odile: Hurricane Odile made a direct hit to the Southern end of the Baja Peninsula, Mexico, in mid-September, with impacts of great severity. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 125 mph, a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
9. Hawaii Double Threat: Hurricanes Iselle and Julio: Hurricane Iselle was poised to become the first hurricane in 22 years to make a direct landfall in Hawaii. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Iselle was located 305 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii and 510 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii.
10. Severe Weather Outbreak in U.S.: June 16, 2014: An especially volatile environment produced a violent severe weather outbreak affecting areas of Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin. Severe to complete property damage was reported in Pilger, Nebraska and surrounding areas. Initial evidence indicated two tornadoes in close proximity near Pilger, with EF-2 to EF-3 intensities. Tornadoes were also reported in Southern Wisconsin where severe damage occurred. Hail and straight-line (nontornadic) wind reports also covered a very widespread area, with reports of hail exceeding two inches in diameter and wind gusts exceeding 74 mph.
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January 13th, 2015
GC Capital Ideas Top Chart Room Entries: For the Year 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top ten Chart Room stories viewed during the year of 2014:
1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.
2. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.
3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.
4. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is presented in the chart. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.
5. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.
6. Chart: 2013 Catastrophe Bond Transactions: This table lists the 144A property/casualty catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2013.
7. Chart: Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions: The chart ranks deals in 2013, as compiled by GC Securities*, a division of MMC Securities Corporation.
8. Chart: Pension Fund Capital Under Management and Allocations into Reinsurance: As the chart illustrates , pension funds alone are worth around USD30 trillion. Based on Guy Carpenter’s analysis of possible capital allocation percentages to the (re)insurance space in consultation with sector experts, a maximum of USD900 billion of this amount could potentially be available for insurance-linked investments. This figure is, of course, much greater than currently needed, demonstrating the existing convergence-driven supply excess. Given Guy Carpenter estimates global property catastrophe limit is currently in excess of USD300 billion, and the ILS market only accounts for around 15 percent of this amount, pension funds have so far made very small investments in reinsurance relative to their overall size.
9. Chart: U.S. Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Quoting Behavior: In this chart, the January 1, 2014 average quote across all programs is represented by the line at 0 percent, while the red dots indicate reinsurers’ distances from the mean across all the programs that they quoted. The size of the line represents the variability from the average for all quotes provided by the reinsurer. Each reinsurer is represented across the bottom of the chart by its A.M. Best rating. Quotes representing non-concurrent terms were excluded.
10. Chart: European Property Catastrophe - Typical ROL Changes: The chart compares changes at January 2014 with January 2013.
Click here to view additional materials in GC Capital Ideas’ Chart Room >>
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*Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
January 8th, 2015
GC Capital Ideas Tops Stories: For the Year 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
A look back at 2014’s most viewed stories.
1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.
2. January 2014 Renewal Report: Capacity: Evolution, Innovation and Opportunity: The January 1, 2014 renewal saw rates on line (ROLs) fall significantly in nearly all regions and business segments as relatively low loss experiences, strong balance sheets and an influx of capital spurred competition and innovation in the reinsurance market. This culminated in a marketplace focused on meeting individual client needs as reinsurers reacted to the challenge posed by alternative markets and alternative markets, in turn, sought to deliver unique solutions. Insurers also looked to capitalize by adapting their buying strategies and prioritizing their risk transfer goals.
3. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.
4. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.
5. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.
6. July 1 Renewals Reveal Continued Double Digit Price Decreases Across Many Lines and Geographies: Guy Carpenter reports that market pressures at July 1 renewals continued to drive price decreases across virtually all geographies and lines of business, many in the double digit range. As loss activity remained minimal, reinsurers added to surplus capacity and additional capital continued to come into the market via alternative sources.
7. Reinsurance Pricing Falls Again at June 1, 2014 as Competition Heightens: Guy Carpenter reports that downward pressure on reinsurance pricing has increased since the June 1, 2013 renewal due to continued competitive pressure from alternative markets, strong reinsurer balance sheets and low loss experiences. In its June 2014 renewal briefing, Guy Carpenter reports that competition increased as markets offered abundant capacity at reduced pricing. Terms and conditions also came under pressure and multi-year transactions continued to be an area of investigation. Traditional reinsurers sought to protect their market share and alternative providers looked to utilize growing funds.
8. Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our popular series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.
9. Catastrophe Bond Outlook for 2014: The growing influence of alternative markets capacity is pressuring traditional reinsurers’ business model and challenging them to compete against a model with lower-cost of capital that continues to enter the reinsurance market. Most reinsurance companies have responded to the challenge by leveraging their incumbent status on reinsurance programs, offering similar or better terms and similar or reduced pricing. Particularly, traditional players are emphasizing their ability to efficiently provide reinstatements, which are seen by many as a critical part of core reinsurance programs, particularly for working reinsurance layers. Traditional players are also hedging their bets and creating their own capital markets divisions to attract, manage and utilize capital from third-party sources whether in the form of fund management, managed accounts or sidecars. This will allow reinsurers the opportunity to securitize the most capital-intensive parts of the business while providing valuable cost-efficient capacity in other business lines.
10. April Renewals Bring Price Reductions & Focus on Tailored Coverage: Guy Carpenter reports that the April 1, 2014 renewal was marked by price reductions and more tailored reinsurance coverage. Strong balance sheets, an abundance of capacity and a consolidation of buying led to lower reinsurance pricing across most territories and business segments at the renewal.
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Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. (MMCSEL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, main office 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product. **GC Analytics is a registered mark with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
January 9th, 2014
Top GC Capital Ideas Stories of 2013
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
A look back at 2013’s most viewed stories.
1. January 1, 2013 Renewals Bring Stable Reinsurance Pricing: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector enters 2013 equipped with ample dedicated capital and stable pricing. In its 2013 global renewal report, The Route to Profitable Growth, Guy Carpenter finds that the January 1, 2013 renewals took place against a stable backdrop, with only loss-affected lines and select regions experiencing price volatility. The market was supported by a combination of factors including lower than normal catastrophe losses during the first nine months of 2012, new reinsurance capacity and record-high levels of capital.
2. July 1 Renewals Indicate Downward Pressure on Reinsurance Rates Likely to Continue through 2013: Guy Carpenter reports that reinsurance market rates on line (ROLs) continued to be driven by an influx of capital from third-party investors at the July 1 renewals, in spite of catastrophe losses reaching approximately USD20 billion during the first six months of 2013 (above the ten-year average for the period). In a briefing, Guy Carpenter comments that robust catastrophe bond, sidecar and collateralized reinsurance activity throughout the year has for the first time pushed pricing in the capital markets to “decouple” or breakaway from levels set by the traditional market. This has in turn prompted downward pressure on overall traditional market pricing.
3. Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the turbulence in the financial markets in 2009, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.
4. Chart: Guy Carpenter Global Rate on Line Index, January 2013: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance ROL index fell marginally at the January 1, 2013 renewal. This is the seventh consecutive annual renewal in which changes to the index have equaled 10 percent or less, indicating a global market with capacity appropriate to meet demand.
5. April 1 Renewals See Reinsurance Pricing Stabilize Amid Dynamic Capital Growth: Guy Carpenter reports that dynamic capital growth and ample reinsurance capacity resulted in a relatively stable renewal at April 1, 2013. In a briefing, Guy Carpenter comments that the convergence of traditional and alternative capital sources is changing the marketplace, with non-traditional capacity now making up an estimated 14 percent of global property catastrophe limit.
6. Influx of Convergence Capital Triggers Downward Pressure on Pricing at June 1 Renewals: Guy Carpenter reports that the reinsurance sector has witnessed dynamic capital growth in 2012 and 2013, spurred by an influx of capital from alternative sources. In its June 2013 renewal briefing, Guy Carpenter finds that this surge in alternative or convergence capital has changed the nature of the sector’s capital structure as investors grow increasingly comfortable with supplying capacity through a convergence of both traditional and alternative vehicles. This market dynamic has also begun to impact significantly reinsurance pricing for peak property catastrophe risks in the United States, with surplus capacity and lower target returns driving downward pressure on pricing for June 1 renewals and likely through the remainder of 2013.
7. Chart: Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit: The increasing influence of alternative capacity is demonstrated by the chart below, which shows the growth of convergence capacity as a percentage of global property catastrophe limit from 2008 to 2013 (projected).
8. Chart: Guy Carpenter Regional ROL Index, January 2013: There was variation regionally in the Guy Carpenter Regional Property Catastrophe Reinsurance ROL index. U.S. property catastrophe pricing was most affected by the landfall of Superstorm Sandy while other regions were flat to down.
9. Indexation Clauses in Liability Reinsurance Treaties: A Comparison Across Europe: The Indexation Clause - otherwise referred to as the stability clause, inflation clause, or severe inflation clause-is designed to maintain the real monetary value of the retention and, where applicable, the limit under a long-tail excess of loss reinsurance treaty over the duration of the claims payout pattern. The clause is only relevant to losses that are of a long-tail nature (that take a long time to become paid) and is commonly found in the terms and conditions of motor liability, general liability, and professional liability excess of loss reinsurance contracts of European cedents.
10. Guy Carpenter’s January 1 Reinsurance Renewals Press Briefing: Nick Frankland: Guy Carpenter’s 2013 Reinsurance Renewal Report executive summary was discussed at a press briefing held in London on January 3. It reports that the reinsurance sector enters 2013 equipped with ample dedicated capital and stable pricing. Guy Carpenter found that the January 1, 2013 renewals took place against a stable backdrop, with only loss-affected lines and select regions experiencing price volatility.
