July 18th, 2014

Week’s Top Stories: July 12 — 18, 2014

Posted at 8:00 AM ET

Chart: U.S. Landfall To Basin Ratio - Detected Hurricanes (1900-2013): The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).

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July 1 Renewals Reveal Continued Double Digit Price Decreases Across Many Lines and Geographies: Guy Carpenter reports that market pressures at July 1 renewals continued to drive price decreases across virtually all geographies and lines of business, many in the double digit range. As loss activity remained minimal, reinsurers added to surplus capacity and additional capital continued to come into the market via alternative sources.

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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part III: What Are We Preparing For Anyway?: Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with ratings on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.

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And, You May Have Missed…

The Total Value of Reinsurance for Long-Tail Business: Can we learn from Solvency II to unlock the hidden value of reinsurance for long-tail business?

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July 17th, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season: What We Know Can Happen — Historical Impacts: Hurricane Andrew

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Hurricane Andrew made U.S. landfall in 1992. The storm originated from a tropical wave and experienced disruptive wind shear until arriving in the West Atlantic. Once in the West Atlantic, Andrew first reached hurricane status on the morning of August 22 and then developed explosively into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph when it made landfall on Florida’s coast.

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July 16th, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season: What We Know Can Happen — Historical Impacts: Hurricane Charley

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Hurricane Charley made U.S. landfall in 2004 with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Storm surge of six to seven feet was observed near Sanibel and Estero Islands, Florida.

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July 15th, 2014

Chart: U.S. Landfall To Basin Ratio — Detected Hurricanes (1900-2013)

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).

Continue reading…

July 14th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part III: What Are We Preparing For Anyway?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-waller2James Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

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Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with ratings on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).

Continue reading…

July 11th, 2014

Week’s Top Stories: July 5 — 11, 2014

Posted at 8:00 AM ET

July 1 Renewals Reveal Continued Double Digit Price Decreases Across Many Lines and Geographies: Guy Carpenter reports that market pressures at July 1 renewals continued to drive price decreases across virtually all geographies and lines of business, many in the double digit range. As loss activity remained minimal, reinsurers added to surplus capacity and additional capital continued to come into the market via alternative sources.

Read the article>>  

 

Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.

Read the article>> 

 

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part I: One Never Truly Knows: The risk of a landfalling hurricane is a serious threat for any tropical season, regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large. In fact, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) along the U.S. coast and northern Caribbean are trending above average, and tropical cyclone development in these areas close to the mainland is cause for concern. Such development depends on short-term weather patterns at the time of occurrence, not on how many hurricanes are expected in the Atlantic basin at large.

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Update: Hurricane Arthur: Hurricane Arthur is the first hurricane to make U.S. landfall since 2012, and the earliest to make North Carolina landfall for any hurricane season since 1908. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Arthur made landfall in North Carolina on July 3 at about 11:15 p.m. EDT (0315 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/hr).

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Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

Read the article>>  

 

And, You May Have Missed… 

Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.

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July 10th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part II: El Niño Phenomenon

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-waller1James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist

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The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).

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July 9th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Appoints CEO Of Benelux Region

Posted at 11:15 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the appointment of Roelant de Haas as CEO of the Benelux region, effective September 1. He succeeds Wim Raeymaekers who takes up the position of Chairman of the region and will be focused on developing clients and markets.

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July 9th, 2014

U.S. & Canada Severe Thunderstorms

Posted at 4:34 PM ET

severe-storms-july-5-8-small

A strong and slow-moving frontal system initiated a series of severe thunderstorm events from July 5-8 affecting an area from the Canadian Prairies to the U.S. East Coast. There have been at least five fatalities. 

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July 9th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part I: One Never Truly Knows

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

Contact

The 2004 hurricane season was a weak El Niño year, which brought five landfalling U.S. hurricanes, four of which affected Florida.

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