November 22nd, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Conclusion

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The obvious response to the issues emerging risks provide is to make sure reserves and capital position are more than robust enough for any eventuality - however remote - and then release them when the risks fail to materialize. But, there are many arguments against this as a practical strategy:

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November 21st, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks, Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The chart below attempts to illustrate the solvency calculation issue. Suppose the best estimate is 20 and the assessment from modeling is that the 1-in-200-year ultimate loss is 100. If all else stays the same and with the simplifying assumption that the yield curve stays flat, one can say that the sum of the 1-year solvency capital requirements (SCRs) approximated the difference between 100 and 20 (i.e. 80). Yet, because of the discounting, when in time the change in own funds is recognized, is important. The black line represents a linear recognition pattern so the 1-year SCRs are all equal with increments of 10. The blue line represents a Binary Fast recognition so the first year SCR is 80 and the remaining years’ SCR are zero. This means that the deterioration is recognized quickly. The red line again shows binary recognition but with a slow pattern as the movement is only occurring toward the end of the liabilities’ life. The two curves in light blue and light red represent less severe versions of the binary forms.

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November 18th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: November 12 - 18, 2016

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

7.8 Mw Earthquake in New Zealand: A magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck central New Zealand on November 13, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The quake occurred at 11:02 PM local time (11:02 UTC) about 93 kilometers (57 miles) north-northeast of Christchurch and about 215 kilometers (133 miles) southwest of Wellington.

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Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Volcano Potential in Asia Pacific: Later in 2016, Guy Carpenter plans to release a report on the potential for losses caused by volcanic eruption across the region and the implications from an insurance point of view.

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Technology Innovation Identified as Top Growth Opportunity for (Re)insurance Industry in 2017, According to Guy Carpenter Annual Market Pulse Survey: Technology innovation will provide the biggest growth opportunities for (re)insurers in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter & Company. Now in its fifth year, the annual survey polled executives from insurance and reinsurance companies during the 2016 Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCIAA) Annual Meeting held in Dallas, Texas. The goal of this year’s survey was to identify the top opportunities and threats to profitable growth in the year ahead, as well as examine the most significant disruptive forces impacting the industry.

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Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks: As discussed in the Executive Summary of this report, the term “crystalization of risk” refers to the timescale over which we realize that the risk is manifesting itself and how this view changes until ultimate understanding of quantum is reached and all liabilities are discharged. The “Reserving Risks” section in last year’s report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks looked at how information emerges in the presence of reserving cycles. The profit or loss in any particular financial year is made up of not only the profit or loss from the same accident year but also any recognized changes in the reserves on prior years.

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Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Strategic Growth Analysis - The Guy Carpenter Approach: The changes in today’s property and casualty (P&C) insurance marketplace present insurers with many challenges to capital management and risk transfer techniques. Insurers are compelled to leverage their capital positions to increase and diversify their market shares to an unprecedented degree.  Preserving the status quo is not an option for long-term viability.  Profitable growth is a key priority for companies seeking additional return.  Companies need to enter new lines of business or geographies strategically with proper analysis. Guy Carpenter offers proprietary analytical tools, intellectual capital and expertise to help companies determine and evaluate their growth plans while maintaining an acceptable level of risk and profitability.

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November 17th, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks, Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As discussed in the Executive Summary of this report, the term “crystalization of risk” refers to the timescale over which we realize that the risk is manifesting itself and how this view changes until ultimate understanding of quantum is reached and all liabilities are discharged. The “Reserving Risks” section in last year’s report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks looked at how information emerges in the presence of reserving cycles. The profit or loss in any particular financial year is made up of not only the profit or loss from the same accident year but also any recognized changes in the reserves on prior years.

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November 16th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Convergence Capital

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-smConvergence” or “alternative” capital, which first entered the reinsurance market with catastrophe bonds, has grown steadily over the past ten years and now also includes industry loss warranties, sidecars and collateralized reinsurance. Convergence capital now accounts for just under 20 percent of the global catastrophe limit.
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November 15th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Protection Gap

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-smThe gap between uninsured and insured risk continues to be an issue for the region. Insurance and reinsurance penetration rates remain low in many Asian countries. As the chart below shows, purchases in catastrophe reinsurance limit have grown, but in actual value terms the majority of growth is in territories with the highest levels of protection already.

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November 14th, 2016

7.8 Mw Earthquake in New Zealand

Posted at 3:45 PM ET

7-8_mw_earthquake_new_zealand-smA magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake struck central New Zealand on November 13, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The quake occurred at 11:02 PM local time (11:02 UTC) about 93 kilometers (57 miles) north-northeast of Christchurch and about 215 kilometers (133 miles) southwest of Wellington.

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November 14th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Volcano Potential in Asia Pacific

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-sm

Later in 2016, Guy Carpenter plans to release a report on the potential for losses caused by volcanic eruption across the region and the implications from an insurance point of view.

Continue reading…

November 11th, 2016

Week’s Top Stories: November 5 - 11, 2016

Posted at 7:30 AM ET

Technology Innovation Identified as Top Growth Opportunity for (Re)insurance Industry in 2017, According to Guy Carpenter Annual Market Pulse Survey: Technology innovation will provide the biggest growth opportunities for (re)insurers in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter & Company. Now in its fifth year, the annual survey polled executives from insurance and reinsurance companies during the 2016 Property Casualty Insurers Association of America Annual Meeting held in Dallas, Texas. The goal of this year’s survey was to identify the top opportunities and threats to profitable growth in the year ahead, as well as examine the most significant disruptive forces impacting the industry.

Read the article>>


Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Mergers and Acquisitions: In 2015, outbound mergers and acquisitions (M&A) abounded in the region, but a pause in transactions occurred in 2016. The flow of inbound M&A increased this year, largely caused by overseas companies making significant investments in joint ventures following recent regulatory changes in India.

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Managing Catastrophe Model Uncertainty, Issues and Challenges: Here we repeat our series authored by John Major, which focuses on the issues and challenges in managing catastrophe model uncertainty.

Read the article>>


China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS): The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is instituting sweeping changes through its three-tiered China Risk Oriented Solvency System (C-ROSS) framework that will dramatically impact how (re)insurers conduct business. It will strengthen capital requirements, risk management and transparency disclosures - bringing China in line with, and in some cases overtaking, global standards. The C-ROSS framework is similar to Solvency II: three tiers focusing on quantitative, qualitative and disclosure requirements.

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Analytics: Fueling Risk-Informed Decisions: Today’s rapidly changing global environment presents insurers with many challenges and opportunities as capital management and risk transfer techniques evolve at an unprecedented pace. Stakeholders, regulators and ratings agencies are deepening their focus on risk management practices, and revolutionary developments in technology, including the Internet of Things and hyper-connectivity, are driving companies to adapt to the challenges that senior management faces to support risk management decisions material to their business.

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And, You May Have Missed…

Newest Versions of Patented Capital Modeling Tools Enhance Automation and Integration, Estimate Inflationary Risk, and Improve Run-Time: Guy Carpenter Introduces MetaRisk® ReserveTM 5 and MetaRisk® 9: Guy Carpenter announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 5 and MetaRisk® 9, the latest updates to its powerful suite of capital modeling tools built on more than 25 years of research and development.

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November 10th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Post-El Niño: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-smIn June, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, released the 2016 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls. The predictions were for the period from May through October for three regions:

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