December 2nd, 2014

Emerging Risk: RMS Global Probabilistic Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Risk Management Solutions (RMS) released an updated Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) in July 2012, version 3.1.2. The new model revised the annual frequency of a terrorist attack on US soil. No updates were made to geographies outside the United States.

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December 1st, 2014

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: November, 2014

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

1. Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

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2. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

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3. Demand for Asia Pacific Catastrophe Reinsurance Remains High in 2014: Guy Carpenter published a new report highlighting the continued increase in 2014 of total Asia Pacific catastrophe limit purchased. However, a confluence of factors, including the weakening of some key zone currencies has meant that reinsurance premium spend in the region has declined significantly.

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4. Cyber Coverage: Directors & Officers (D&O) Liability: Cyber coverage is also having an effect on directors and officers (D&O) liability in the United States. Oversight and increased requirements for disclosure on cybersecurity are making D&O coverage more important than ever. With the rise of data breaches and other cyber-attacks, directors and officers are responsible for making sure that they are taking sufficient steps to protect their company’s digital assets. In the case of a data breach, directors can be hit with shareholder suits and shareholder derivative actions claiming that the directors breached their fiduciary duty to the company for failing to put adequate cyber security measures in place.

Read the article>> 

 

5. Terror Developments: Overview of TRIPRA: Some may question why terrorism risk has a place in a document dedicated to emerging risk. Terrorism as a form of violence to promote cause or promote change is one of the original human conflicts. The wind blows and the earth shakes much the same way now as it has for hundreds, thousands of years. However, terrorism as a risk and a peril has evolved over the years and is a current concern in all parts of the world. Given the growing population, regional conflicts producing a broad list of potential instigators, the expansive reach of social media for extremists spreading their messages and recruiting and the diversity of possible attack modes to cause human and economic loss, terrorism does qualify as an emerging risk.

Read the article>> 

 

6. Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman Publish Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman, both wholly owned subsidiaries of Marsh & McLennan Companies, released the 2014 Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Annual Statistical Review, the first in a two-part series detailing research executed in collaboration with Columbia University. This, the fourth annual report, provides detailed analysis and insight on the property/casualty industry to help insurers strategically evaluate and benchmark inputs to economic capital models.

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7. Regional Variations in Cyber Cover: Here we examine the variations in the regulation of data protection and privacy between the United States and Europe.

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8. Modeling Terrorism: Modeling methodologies for terrorism have been continually refined and updated since the three major modeling companies - AIR Worldwide (AIR), EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions (RMS) - released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from a terrorist attack continues to pose major challenges for (re)insurers and alternative capacity providers. There are three main techniques to model terrorism risk.

Read the article>> 

 

9. Emerging Risk: Periodic Payment Orders: For a number of reasons the United Kingdom represents an extreme example of the impact of annuity compensation structures. For severe bodily injury cases it is now highly likely that the claimant will opt for an annuity structure (known as a periodic payment order, or PPO) rather than a lump-sum. These are often indexed accordingly to the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). As a consequence, the uncertainties that had previously been transferred to the claimant are now retained by the insurer (and to a certain extent, its reinsurers). Unlike an individual claimant, the insurer needs to articulate these risks in its capital modeling.

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10. Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Composite, H1 2014: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first half, 2014.

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November 28th, 2014

Week’s Top Stories: November 22 — 28, 2014

Posted at 8:00 AM ET

Modeling Terrorism: Modeling methodologies for terrorism have been continually refined and updated since the three major modeling companies - AIR Worldwide (AIR), EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions (RMS) - released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from a terrorist attack continues to pose major challenges for (re)insurers and alternative capacity providers. There are three main techniques to model terrorism risk.

Read the article>>

 

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

Read the article>>

 

Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

Read the article>>

 

Risk Profile, Appetite, and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness: Prior to the recent turbulence in the financial markets, insurers and reinsurers were increasing their use of enterprise risk management (ERM) to make risk and capital management decisions. While this was driven in part by rating agencies and regulators, many carriers began to recognize the value of metric-based frameworks and capital models in evaluating their portfolios.

Read the article>>

 

Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman Publish Annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman, both wholly owned subsidiaries of Marsh & McLennan Companies, released the 2014 Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Annual Statistical Review, the first in a two-part series detailing research executed in collaboration with Columbia University. This, the fourth annual report, provides detailed analysis and insight on the property/casualty industry to help insurers strategically evaluate and benchmark inputs to economic capital models.

Read the article>>

 

And, You May Have Missed…

New Solutions Help Mutual Insurers Face Market Challenges: Mutual insurance companies of all sizes currently face challenging market conditions where success requires not only focused distribution and operational excellence, but also access to increasingly sophisticated analytics services and products. How these firms use their resources and advanced technology to respond to these issues will separate market outperformers from underperformers.

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Click here to register to receive e-mail updates>>

November 27th, 2014

GC Capital Tip: Print-Friendly

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Take GC Capital Ideas with you on the train in the morning, or bring a copy of an article to a colleague. With the print-friendly feature, you can print articles in a format that are easy to read and share. When you are reading a story on GC Capital Ideas, look for the button in the upper right corner of the article: “Print This Post.” Click it, and you will see the article in its printable form. Then, just click the print button on your web browser. To get back to GC Capital Ideas after you print, click the “Back” button on your browser.

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November 26th, 2014

Emerging Risk: AIR US Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

AIR implemented significant model updates in version 13 of CLASIC/2TM, released in 2011. The updates impacted hazard components such as the target and landmark database, event frequency estimates and exposure and policy conditions.

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November 25th, 2014

Emerging Risk: Commercial Terrorism Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers and other market participants perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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November 24th, 2014

Modeling Terrorism

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Modeling methodologies for terrorism have been continually refined and updated since the three major modeling companies - AIR Worldwide (AIR), EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions (RMS) - released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from a terrorist attack continues to pose major challenges for (re)insurers and alternative capacity providers. There are three main techniques to model terrorism risk:

Continue reading…

November 21st, 2014

Week’s Top Stories: November 15 — 21, 2014

Posted at 8:00 AM ET

Terror Developments: Overview of TRIPRA: Some may question why terrorism risk has a place in a document dedicated to emerging risk. Terrorism as a form of violence to promote cause or promote change is one of the original human conflicts. The wind blows and the earth shakes much the same way now as it has for hundreds, thousands of years. However, terrorism as a risk and a peril has evolved over the years and is a current concern in all parts of the world. Given the growing population, regional conflicts producing a broad list of potential instigators, the expansive reach of social media for extremists spreading their messages and recruiting and the diversity of possible attack modes to cause human and economic loss, terrorism does qualify as an emerging risk.

Read the article>>

 

Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey: Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.

Read the article>>

 

Emerging Risk: Periodic Payment Orders: For a number of reasons the United Kingdom represents an extreme example of the impact of annuity compensation structures. For severe bodily injury cases it is now highly likely that the claimant will opt for an annuity structure (known as a periodic payment order, or PPO) rather than a lump-sum. These are often indexed accordingly to the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE). As a consequence, the uncertainties that had previously been transferred to the claimant are now retained by the insurer (and to a certain extent, its reinsurers). Unlike an individual claimant, the insurer needs to articulate these risks in its capital modeling.

Read the article>> 

 

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014.  The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.

Read the article>>

 

Cyber Coverage: Directors & Officers (D&O) Liability: Cyber coverage is also having an effect on directors and officers (D&O) liability in the United States. Oversight and increased requirements for disclosure on cybersecurity are making D&O coverage more important than ever. With the rise of data breaches and other cyber-attacks, directors and officers are responsible for making sure that they are taking sufficient steps to protect their company’s digital assets. In the case of a data breach, directors can be hit with shareholder suits and shareholder derivative actions claiming that the directors breached their fiduciary duty to the company for failing to put adequate cyber security measures in place.

Read the article>>

 

And, You May Have Missed…

Guy Carpenter Publishes Flood Risks in Asia - A Detailed Study: Guy Carpenter has released a new report titled Flood Risk in Asia - A Detailed Study. The report provides an in-depth study of the flood potential in Asia along with the prevention and protection systems in place.

Read the article>>

 

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November 20th, 2014

Change in the Threat of Terrorism

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

In the Guy Carpenter Global Terrorism Report Uncertain Future: Evolving Terrorism Risk (1) we provide a comprehensive review and outlook of terrorism risk. Key components of the report are highlighted below.

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November 19th, 2014

Terror Developments: Overview of TRIPRA

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Some may question why terrorism risk has a place in a document dedicated to emerging risk. Terrorism as a form of violence to promote cause or promote change is one of the original human conflicts. The wind blows and the earth shakes much the same way now as it has for hundreds, thousands of years. However, terrorism as a risk and a peril has evolved over the years and is a current concern in all parts of the world. Given the growing population, regional conflicts producing a broad list of potential instigators, the expansive reach of social media for extremists spreading their messages and recruiting and the diversity of possible attack modes to cause human and economic loss, terrorism does qualify as an emerging risk. With this contemporaneity in mind, we will discuss terrorism as an example of an emerging risk that is being aggravated by changes in geo-political events and in the continued notable challenges in modeling its ever changing underlying complexities.

Continue reading…