The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter and City University of Hong Kong, today released its fourth annual report presenting the findings of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 22 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.

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While reinsurance premiums remained broadly stable in the established markets of the United States, Canada and Western Europe between 2007 and 2011, strong growth has been recorded in emerging market regions, particularly China, India and other countries in South and East Asia.

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Flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence. 

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Thirty-five percent of insured natural catastrophe losses between 2009 and 2011 were located in Asia while only 33 percent were in the United States. Australia and New Zealand also saw a marked increase in natural catastrophe insured losses during this period, with 19 percent of the total. This is in stark contrast to the long-term trend of more than three-quarters of all insured natural catastrophe losses occurring in the United States.

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Guy Carpenter reports that dynamic capital growth and ample reinsurance capacity resulted in a relatively stable renewal at April 1, 2013. In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that the convergence of traditional and alternative capital sources is changing the marketplace, with non-traditional capacity now making up an estimated 14 percent of global property catastrophe limit.

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As we approach the April 1 Japan reinsurance renewals, we review recent GC Capital Ideas stories focusing on Asia Pacific. 

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Floods are among the most destructive hazards and as more people move to urban areas, flooding is having a growing impact on larger populations and economic losses.

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Edward Fenton, Managing Director
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As in every past year, Japanese (re)insurers look to the January 1, 2013, reinsurance renewal for guidance as to the likely state of the market for their renewals at April 1. This year they will have been encouraged with a market characterized by excess capital, overcapacity and easing prices for loss-free business. This scenario is evidenced by the Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Rate on Line index, which fell at renewal, albeit marginally. This environment will come as a welcome change to Japanese buyers, who have fought their way through the last two renewals against adverse market conditions caused by a series of significant losses in the Asia Pacific region.

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Guy Carpenter announced that Tony Gallagher will be appointed Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the firm’s Pacific Region effective March 1, 2013. Mr. Gallagher will be based in Sydney and will report to James Nash, CEO of the firm’s Asia Pacific region.

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Joan Lamm-Tennant, PhD, Chief Economist and Risk Strategist
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The macroeconomic environment continues to be top-of-mind among insurance leaders. With growth in global real gross domestic product (GDP) slowing from 4.1 percent in 2010 to 3 percent in 2011, insurance leaders continue to experience significant headwinds challenging profitable growth. As reported by Swiss Re, insurance overall direct premiums declined 0.8 percent in real terms in 2011. Nevertheless, pockets of opportunities do exist and will continue in the near term. Stabilizing social/political conditions, investments in infrastructure and demographic progression continue to fuel strong positive GDP growth and increasing insurance penetration in emerging economies. In these economies, overall direct premiums increased 1.3 percent in real terms in 2011, with non-life premiums increasing 9.1 percent.

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