In honor of her being awarded Insurance Woman of the Year by the Association of Professional Insurance Women, we highlight Joan Lamm-Tennant’s recent article that appeared on GC Capital Ideas. Joan is Guy Carpenter’s Chief Economist and Risk Strategist.
The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter and City University of Hong Kong, today released its fourth annual report presenting the findings of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 22 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.
While reinsurance premiums remained broadly stable in the established markets of the United States, Canada and Western Europe between 2007 and 2011, strong growth has been recorded in emerging market regions, particularly China, India and other countries in South and East Asia.
Flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.
Thirty-five percent of insured natural catastrophe losses between 2009 and 2011 were located in Asia while only 33 percent were in the United States. Australia and New Zealand also saw a marked increase in natural catastrophe insured losses during this period, with 19 percent of the total. This is in stark contrast to the long-term trend of more than three-quarters of all insured natural catastrophe losses occurring in the United States.
Guy Carpenter reports that dynamic capital growth and ample reinsurance capacity resulted in a relatively stable renewal at April 1, 2013. In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that the convergence of traditional and alternative capital sources is changing the marketplace, with non-traditional capacity now making up an estimated 14 percent of global property catastrophe limit.
As we approach the April 1 Japan reinsurance renewals, we review recent GC Capital Ideas stories focusing on Asia Pacific.
Edward Fenton, Managing Director
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As in every past year, Japanese (re)insurers look to the January 1, 2013, reinsurance renewal for guidance as to the likely state of the market for their renewals at April 1. This year they will have been encouraged with a market characterized by excess capital, overcapacity and easing prices for loss-free business. This scenario is evidenced by the Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Reinsurance Rate on Line index, which fell at renewal, albeit marginally. This environment will come as a welcome change to Japanese buyers, who have fought their way through the last two renewals against adverse market conditions caused by a series of significant losses in the Asia Pacific region.
Here we gather recent GC Capital Ideas posts that focus on flood risk and flood events in the Asia Pacific region.
Floods in Eastern Australia: Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes.
Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.
Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.
Guy Carpenter Develops Database of Industrial Estates in China, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion.
Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report, there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.
Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand. Flooding also forced seven huge industrial estates in central regions to close, causing damage to the industrial sector in the billions of U.S. dollars.
Event Summary
Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes. Floodwaters in some areas reached record levels, causing damage to thousands of properties and forcing widespread evacuations. A number of towns and cities were affected by severe flooding, including Brisbane, Ipswich, Bundaberg and Rockhampton. Bundaberg was particularly badly hit. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has reported an estimated insured loss of AUD290 million (USD302 million) from the event as at 4pm on January 31. The 2013 flood event comes just two years after significant flooding hit Queensland in January 2011, which resulted in insured losses of around AUD2.4 billion (USD2.5 billion).
