Later in 2016, Guy Carpenter plans to release a report on the potential for losses caused by volcanic eruption across the region and the implications from an insurance point of view.
In June, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, released the 2016 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls. The predictions were for the period from May through October for three regions:
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center predicts there is 55 percent to 60 percent chance that strong El Niño conditions will transition to La Niña conditions in the fall and winter of 2016-2017.(1) This kind of transition year has been observed four times since 1950 (1966, 1973, 1983 and 1998).
Earthquakes in Taiwan and the Kumamoto prefecture of Japan and floods in southern China were the largest events. The reinsurance share of these losses appears modest. Barring a major catastrophe before the end of the year, catastrophe reinsurers are expected to return a healthy profit in Asia Pacific for the fourth year in a row.
In the Asia Pacific region, purchases in original currency terms of total catastrophe treaty reinsurance limit grew year on year. Increased purchase in Japan largely drove the growth, with lesser growth experienced in India and China. Changes in pro rata arrangements at some Australian cedents reduced the overall catastrophe excess of loss requirements from Australia; these movements were not large enough to push the overall region-wide purchase backwards.
Andrew Cox, Managing Director; Matthew Eagle, Head of GC Analytics® - International; and Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director
On January 1, 2016, the Solvency II regulatory regime took effect. Some celebrated; others were weary from the months and years of preparation.
In the Northwest Pacific Basin, Typhoon Sarika and Super Typhoon Haima have recently affected areas of the Philippines, Vietnam and Mainland China. Both typhoons made landfall in the northern Philippines within a week, as a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Reported impacts in the northern Philippines have been especially severe, with reports of moderate to complete damage over areas of northern Luzon. Damage from wind, flooding and mudslides have been reported, together with reports of downed trees and powerlines.
Here we review the top five CAT-i stories covering July through September of 2016.
In the Northwest Pacific Basin, Typhoon Megi made landfall in central Taiwan Tuesday afternoon, local time. The typhoon brought reports of excessive rainfall, flash-flooding, and roof damage for affected areas. Isolated rainfall amounts exceeding 1,250 millimeters (50 inches) were reported, with general rainfall amounts of 250 millimeters (10 inches) or more.
