Guy Carpenter hosted “The Reinsurance Industry of the Future,” the Reinsurance Symposium held in Baden-Baden, Germany on October 19. A distinguished line-up of industry luminaries expressed their views on whether the current changes impacting the reinsurance sector are permanent and structural in nature, are a tactical response to short-term conditions, or are part of the normal evolutionary process.
Posts Tagged ‘capital’
Matthew Day, Head of Rating Agency Advisory, Strategic Advisory EMEA - Capital Optimization
What drives (re)insurer capital planning? Maybe it is risk appetite, internal dynamic capital modeling or actuarial analysis. Or perhaps it is external pressure from regulators, rating agencies or investors. In reality, it is probably a combination of all of these factors. Faced with conflicting views of what constitutes both the available capital and the assessment of the amount required relative to the risk, optimizing (re)insurer capital adequacy is likely to be a key challenge confronting a company. Rarely will the company be able to fully satisfy all the demands. Developing a management framework to evaluate, analyze and compare these divergent needs is therefore essential to extract the maximum efficiency from (re)insurer corporate capital structure.
Chart shows the evolution of private catastrophe bonds through mid-year 2014 based on deal count and total aggregate limit placed.
Chart shows the growth in 144A catastrophe bonds through mid-year 2014 with capital outstanding reaching a record high.
Chart shows the cumulative return profile of 144A catastrophe bonds (as a proxy for all capital markets-based risk transfer capacity) versus various other capital market asset classes through mid-year 2014.
From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top ten Chart Room stories viewed during the third quarter of 2014:
1. Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line index is presented for 1990 through 2014. The index fell by 11 percent at January 1, 2014.
2. Chart: Rate Movements by Business Segment: Reports rate movements at January 1, 2014.
3. Chart: Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.
4. Chart: U.S. Landfall To Basin Ratio - Detected Hurricanes (1900-2013): The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).
5. Chart: Combined Ratio for Guy Carpenter Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents combined ratio for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.
6. Chart: Return On Equity For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents return on equity for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite, 2004 through first quarter, 2014.
7. Chart: Evolution of Dedicated Reinsurance Capital, 2012 - YE 2013: The evolution of dedicated sector capital is shown in this chart. Guy Carpenter estimates this rose marginally in 2013 to USD322 billion at year-end as underwriting profits from low catastrophe claims and convergence capital inflows offset unrealized losses, sustained share buybacks and dividend payments.
8. Chart: Source Of Earnings For Guy Carpenter Reinsurance Composite, Q1 2014: Chart presents source of earnings for the Guy Carpenter Global Reinsurance Composite for the first quarter, 2014.
9. Chart: Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding: Issuance reached a record high of USD7.1 billion, surpassing 2007’s total. Risk capital outstanding also reached an all-time high of USD18.6 billion last year.
10. Chart: 2013 Catastrophe Bond Transactions: This table lists the 144A property/casualty catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2013.
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The major rating agencies covering the reinsurance sector (A.M. Best, S&P, Moody’s, Fitch) have all voiced concerns with the industry’s ability to adjust to the seemingly overwhelming headwinds currently facing the sector. With A.M. Best recently changing its outlook, the view of the reinsurance sector across the rating agencies is now unanimously negative.
Markus Müller, Global Partners & Strategic Advisory EMEA, Capital Optimization
Increased capital efficiency remains at the forefront of (re)insurers’ strategies - owing largely to the pending introduction of the Solvency II regime, rating agency capital requirements and the continued pressure around shareholder expectations.
Alex Moczarski, President and CEO, Guy Carpenter and Chairman, Marsh & McLennan Companies International, provides concluding remarks at the Guy Carpenter press briefing at the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous in this GC Capital Ideas videocast. He said “The focus for many in the industry continues to be on the deflationary effect of excess capital. This can lead to negative introspection or just waiting for the ‘big one’ to strike. Such passivity won’t do. We must take the initiative. For a broker, this means constant innovation, anticipation of clients’ needs and delivering the best solutions.