Severe weather hit the central United States over the last several days, spawning several tornadoes, large hail and damaging straight-line winds. The town of Moore, Oklahoma experienced the worst of the outbreak. A rare EF5 tornado, the most powerful ranking on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, obliterated scores of buildings and killed at least 24 people, 9 of them children. The tornado was reported to be 1.3 miles wide and spent 40 minutes on the ground, leaving a 17 mile trail of destruction. According to AIR Worldwide, the estimated value at risk from the EF5 is between USD2 billion and USD6 billion. Oklahoma’s Insurance Commissioner, John Doak, stated that insured losses could exceed the cost of the 2011 Joplin tornado, which was nearly USD3 billion.

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Here we review all of the CAT-i report events that appeared on GC Capital Ideas in the second half of 2012.

Floods in Eastern Australia, February 1: Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes. Floodwaters in some areas reached record levels, causing damage to thousands of properties and forcing widespread evacuations.

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Update: Sandy, October 31: The full scope of Sandy’s impacts will still take a day or two to emerge. As storm surge recedes and those affected survey the damage, the last 24 hours have brought new reports of downed trees and power lines, with localized inland flooding, over an incredibly large area from the Mid-Atlantic to the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada.

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Tropical Storm Isaac, August 30:  Tropical Storm Isaac now carries maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. It continues its slow drift, now to the north-northwest. Storm surge, inland flooding, and inland tornadoes remain as ongoing hazards with Isaac.

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Here we gather recent GC Capital Ideas posts that focus on flood risk and flood events in the Asia Pacific region. 

Floods in Eastern Australia:  Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes.

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Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.

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Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

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Guy Carpenter Develops Database of Industrial Estates in China, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion.

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Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report, there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.

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Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary:  In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand. Flooding also forced seven huge industrial estates in central regions to close, causing damage to the industrial sector in the billions of U.S. dollars.

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Event Summary

Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes. Floodwaters in some areas reached record levels, causing damage to thousands of properties and forcing widespread evacuations. A number of towns and cities were affected by severe flooding, including Brisbane, Ipswich, Bundaberg and Rockhampton. Bundaberg was particularly badly hit. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has reported an estimated insured loss of AUD290 million (USD302 million) from the event as at 4pm on January 31. The 2013 flood event comes just two years after significant flooding hit Queensland in January 2011, which resulted in insured losses of around AUD2.4 billion (USD2.5 billion).

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As always, our immediate thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by Sandy, both in North America, and across the Caribbean. Many areas along the East Coast, and the Caribbean, bear signs of unspeakable consequences from this historic storm. The death toll in North America is now at least 55 (including one in Canada), in addition to the 67 who died in the Caribbean last week.

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Sandy made landfall on Monday October 29, at about 8PM EDT (00:00 UTC October 30), as a powerful post-tropical cyclone or “frontal system.” Maximum sustained winds at landfall were 80 mph, with a minimum pressure of 946 mb. Sandy made landfall just south of Atlantic City, New Jersey, but its effects were and continue to be felt as far away as Maine, Lake Michigan, and Tennessee. The Northeast has not seen a storm of this size or intensity in recorded history. Sandy was different from Irene (2011) because of its size, intensity, approach to the coast and structure.

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Hurricane Sandy has continued to intensify to a 940 mb storm, with 90 mph winds, and expected landfall between coastal Delaware and Atlantic City. Sandy is a category-1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and approaching category-2 status. This is a dangerous, large and historic storm, posing a greater threat than Irene (2011). Storm force winds extend outward over 450 miles.

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Hurricane Sandy is still expected by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to interact with a cold frontal system from the mainland to produce a historic post-tropical cyclone that will impact the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States early next week. Given the expansive nature of the storm, tropical storm force winds are anticipated at least 200 miles away from the track. It is possible that an area 50-100 miles on either side of the track could experience sustained hurricane force winds.

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Hurricane Sandy poses a significant threat to the Atlantic Coast from North Carolina to Newfoundland this weekend into next week. The interaction of Sandy with a cold frontal system will lead to a historic “nor-easter” type cyclone. Threats include storm surge, tropical storm or hurricane force winds, and excessive rainfall. Power outages, coastal damage, with downed trees and power lines are possible over a very large area from North Carolina to Nova Scotia. The exact track is still very uncertain, and interests along the entire Atlantic East Coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

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Hurricane Sandy has the potential to interact with a frontal system leaving the U.S. coast, causing the development of a “nor-easter” type of post-tropical cyclone. The feature could then drift westward into the northeastern United States this weekend into next week. Interests along the U.S. East Coast should monitor this system closely. A more imminent threat is already underway for Jamaica, Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas.

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