Posts Tagged ‘Catastrophe’



April 30th, 2019

Closing The Gap: Insurance Penetration and Public Sector Risk Financing in Asia Pacific

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

michael-schwarz_resizedIn recent years, the issue of low penetration in catastrophe insurance across the growing economies of Asia Pacific, and the critical protection gap between economic losses caused by natural disaster events and insurance-covered losses are receiving the attention they merit. The insurance industry can play a significant role in narrowing the gap to help ensure sustainable economic development in one of the most dynamic regions of the world, according to Michael Schwarz, Head of Public Sector - Asia Pacific, Guy Carpenter.

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March 7th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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February 28th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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February 21st, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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February 20th, 2019

Risk Financing Strategies Needed as Exposure to Flood Increases

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

extreme-weather-2The affordability of flood resilience will become an increasingly critical issue as rising sea levels and urbanization expose a growing number of people and population centers to floods, says the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2019.

The 14th edition of the Global Risks Report, prepared with the support of Guy Carpenter’s parent company, Marsh & McLennan Companies, states that robust risk financing strategies will be required to fund investment in adaptation and to pay for recovery when floods occur. Continue reading…

February 14th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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January 22nd, 2019

Mw 6.7 Earthquake – Near Coquimbo, Chile

Posted at 5:14 PM ET

1_smallA magnitude (Mw) 6.7 earthquake was reported near Coquimbo, Chile around 01:32 UTC January 20, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The epicenter was located at a depth of 53 km (33 miles) and about 15 km (9 miles) SSW of Coquimbo, Chile, between the regions of Atacama and O’Higgins. Media reports to date indicate variable damage to property and infrastructure, although impacts appear to have been limited by the resilient building codes in the area. Some disruption to transportation has also been reported, along with some impacts to infrastructure and numerous power outages. Continue reading…

January 22nd, 2019

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2019.

Composite 2015 YE

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December 26th, 2018

GC Capital Ideas: CAT-i Stories: Fourth Quarter 2018

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here is a look back at the CAT-i articles from October 1 through December.

Mw 7.0 Earthquake – Near Anchorage, Alaska: The magnitude (Mw) 7.0 earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska, on November 30 occurred at a depth of 44.1 km as the result of a slip on an intraslab fault within the subducting Pacific slab. According to the United States Geological Survey, the faulting involved a moderately dipping fault striking north-south, below the shallower thrust-faulting interface between the Pacific Plate and the North America Plate. A tsunami warning was issued but later lifted by the U.S. National Weather Service. Damage was reported to buildings, including interior damage and some cracked foundations with some building collapses.

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California Wildfire Activity: November Wildfire activity in California rendered especially severe impacts in Northern and Southern California, including areas of Butte, Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.  Rates of extreme fire spread were enabled by especially dry, windy conditions on November 8 and the days following. Aggressive firefighting efforts allowed containment efforts to progress despite adverse conditions. Camp, Woolsey and Hill Fires burned an estimated 20,297 structures since November 8, including at least 13,972 residential structures from the Camp Fire alone, according to Cal Fire statistics (as reported in the CAT-i on November 29). These fires have also claimed at least 91 lives. Media reports indicate estimated insured losses for the Camp and Woolsey Fires of around USD 9-13 billion as reported by RMS.

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Hurricane Michael: Hurricane Michael, the strongest hurricane to affect the Continental U.S. since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, made landfall on October 10 as a high-end Category-4 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. The storm rendered severe to complete damage to areas from Panama City to Port Saint Joe, with especially severe damage in Mexico Beach due to severe wind and storm surge. Wind caused roof and wall collapse, especially for cinderblock construction and even commercial properties. Some coastal areas of Mexico Beach were scoured to the foundation by storm surge and wave battering. At least 12 fatalities were reported by media by the time the CAT-i was released.

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Super Typhoon Trami: In the West-Pacific Basin, Typhoon Trami made landfall in the city of Tanabe, Japan (Wakayama prefecture) on 30 September, according to media reports. Before reaching Honshu, the typhoon had rendered considerable impacts while making close approach to Okinawa, Kyūshū and Shikoku Islands. Trami brought significant flood impacts as a result of heavy rainfall and storm surge, as well as variable property damage due to wind. Significant power outages and transportation disruption were reported by media. Over 4.3 million people were given evacuation orders or advisories. Media reports indicated at least four fatalities and 120 injured.

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