Guy Carpenter has developed a state-of-the-art probabilistic flood model for mainland France in collaboration with hydrological and hydraulic modeling experts, JBA Consulting (JBA) and Intermap Technologies (Intermap), a global provider of high-quality 3D digital elevation models.

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Guy Carpenter Managing Director Kevin Stokes provides a forecast of events leading up to the July 1 renewals for property catastrophe reinsurance. The first quarter loss events will likely not have a major impact on pricing. He also reviews the 2010 Guy Carpenter storm forecast.

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An Afriqiyah Airways plane carrying 104 passengers and crew on an international flight crashed as it attempted to land at Tripoli International Airport on May 12, killing all but one person on board. Afriqiyah Airways said Flight 8U771 was carrying 93 passengers and 11 crew. The sole survivor, a child reported to be Dutch, is being treated in a hospital. The Airbus A330-200 was flying from Johannesburg in South Africa to the Libyan capital when it crashed just short of the runway around 06:00 local time (04:00 UTC) after a nine hour flight, the airline said. Eyewitnesses said the aircraft started to break up as it came in to land in clear weather before totally disintegrating. Two flight recorders have been recovered and an investigation has been launched into the cause of the crash. Market sources quoted by Insurance Day said the aircraft had an insured value of USD123 million on a policy led by Catlin. Insurance Day added Afriqiyah Airways is thought to have a liability policy with a USD1 billion limit.

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 Chris Klein, Guy Carpenter’s Head of Business Intelligence, reviews trends in global catastrophe losses along with insured losses. Guy Carpenter’s ten year moving average of losses ticked down in 2009 to USD36.2 billion.

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An explosion and large fire on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico left 11 workers missing and 17 others injured on April 20. The blaze on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which broke out around 22:00 local time (03:00 UTC on April 21), sent flames and smoke high into the sky about 40 miles off the coast of Louisiana. Seventeen workers were injured, three critically, and the 11 missing men are now feared dead. Reports said the rig, which is owned by Transocean Ltd, was under contract to the oil giant BP at a cost of USD533,000 (EUR395,000) a day and doing exploratory drilling. The rig was listing badly as it was consumed by flames and it eventually sunk on April 22, leaking oil into the Gulf of Mexico. The well is currently leaking oil at a rate of about 1,000 barrels per day. Reports said the rig was built in 2001 in South Korea at a cost of about USD350 million. Transocean said the 400-by-250-foot (120-by-80 meter) rig was located around 42 miles offshore Venice, Louisiana, on Mississippi Canyon block 252.

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Severe weather in southern regions of the United States spawned several tornadoes over the weekend, causing widespread property damage and killing at least 12 people. The storms affected the southern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. The dead included 10 people in rural Mississippi and 2 others in Alabama while at least 70 people were injured. A state of emergency has been declared in 17 Mississippi counties and reports said hundreds of properties have been destroyed or damaged.

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An explosion and large fire on an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico left 11 workers missing and 17 others injured on April 20. The blaze on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, which broke out around 22:00 local time (03:00 UTC on April 21), sent flames and smoke high into the sky about 40 miles off the coast of Louisiana. Seventeen workers were injured, three critically, and rescuers are still searching for 11 missing people. It was not known whether the missing workers were able to make it to one of the rig’s lifeboats. Reports said the rig, which is owned by Transocean Ltd, was under contract to the oil giant BP at a cost of USD533,000 (EUR 395,000) a day and doing exploratory drilling. The rig is listing badly and threatening to topple over, the US Coast Guard said. Reports said the rig, which was built in 2001 in South Korea at a cost of about USD350 million, has a replacement value of up to USD700 million today. Transocean said the 400-by-250-foot (120-by-80 meter) rig is located approximately 42 miles offshore Venice, Louisiana, on Mississippi Canyon block 252.

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At least 25 workers were killed in an explosion at a coal mine in Montcoal, West Virginia, on April 5. Reports said the blast occurred towards the end of the afternoon at the underground mine run by Performance Coal Company, a subsidiary of Massey Energy. The explosion at the Upper Big Branch Mine was the deadliest mining disaster in the United States since 1984, according to reports. In addition to the 25 fatalities, four miners are still missing and two others were hospitalised. A massive rescue operation was launched after the blast as emergency services rushed to the scene. However, the operation was suspended later because rising methane gas levels heightened the risk of another blast. The operation has since resumed, with rescuers drilling into the mine to release poisonous gases and ventilate the mine chamber.

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