Posts Tagged ‘Catastrophe’



June 26th, 2018

North Atlantic Hurricane Season for 2018 – Near Normal But With Uncertainty

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, PhD, Research Meteorologist

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With the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season having commenced on June 1, seasonal outlook providers on both sides of the Atlantic continue to issue predictions. As with any hurricane season, each outlook provider emphasizes the need for proper preparation, since impactful hurricanes have been known to make landfall even during quiet years.

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June 25th, 2018

Volcanic Eruptions: A Complex and Largely Overlooked Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Delioma Oramas-Dorta, Catastrophe Risk Analyst

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Volcanic eruptions are complex phenomena that may affect populations and economies in ways we may not be familiar with. Large volcanic eruptions can spew ash spreading hundreds or even thousands of kilometers; and deposited ash may damage buildings at different levels, from catastrophic structural damage in extreme cases of significant ash fall accumulation, to abrasion or corrosion of nonstructural elements such as roofs, gutters and cladding.

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May 16th, 2018

Chart: Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2018.

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May 2nd, 2018

2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season; Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, PhD, Research Meteorologist

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Seasonal outlook providers continue to issue early predictions for the 2018 North Atlantic hurricane season. The Weather Company (IBM) is expecting a season of near-normal activity. Earlier this month, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University (CSU), predicted a season more in line with the 1995-2017 elevated average. Meanwhile, North Carolina State University (NCSU) issued a prediction for above-normal activity, relative to the 1995-2017 average.

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April 30th, 2018

Guy Carpenter Licenses First-of-its-Kind Cyber Risk Modeling Platform from CyberCube Following Strategic Alliance

Posted at 9:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter & Company today announced that its two year strategic relationship with CyberCube Analytics, formerly part of Symantec Corporation, has produced the industry’s first cyber risk modeling platform with an inside-out view of cyber risk exposure.

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April 26th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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April 25th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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April 24th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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April 23rd, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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