Two explosions were reported in Boston yesterday. The explosions occurred in the Boston Back Bay area at about 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC), on Monday April 15. The explosions occurred after winners had finished the Boston Marathon. One occurred near a sports store, and the other near a viewing stand near the finish line. Explosion locations were reported near 673 Boylston St, or near the intersection of Boylston and Exeter.

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Over the last two years, several powerful earthquakes have caused widespread damage, leading to significant losses for (re)insurers. Four out of the five most costly earthquakes on record have occurred since the start of 2010, and all four of these events were located outside the United States.

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Christopher Ezbiansky, Mergers and Acquisitions Advisory - Americas and Des Potter, Mergers and Acquisitions Advisory - Europe, GC Securities*

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A new capital management paradigm is challenging the traditional reinsurance model. Historically, significant market losses from major catastrophic events and low investment yields were a catalyst for an improved rate environment. Faced with current economic conditions, reinsurers are finding it more difficult to generate adequate returns in excess of their cost of capital, and are seeing an increased competitive threat from alternative capacity from the capital markets. New money appears to be more permanent and therefore limits the firmness and duration of any improved rate environment. Catastrophe bonds, sidecars, structured industry-loss warranties and collateralized reinsurance vehicles are among the alternative market options. Hedge funds are also playing a more active role, with a couple of major names setting up reinsurance operations in Bermuda.

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Event Summary

Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes. Floodwaters in some areas reached record levels, causing damage to thousands of properties and forcing widespread evacuations. A number of towns and cities were affected by severe flooding, including Brisbane, Ipswich, Bundaberg and Rockhampton. Bundaberg was particularly badly hit. The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA) has reported an estimated insured loss of AUD290 million (USD302 million) from the event as at 4pm on January 31. The 2013 flood event comes just two years after significant flooding hit Queensland in January 2011, which resulted in insured losses of around AUD2.4 billion (USD2.5 billion).

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GC Capital Ideas has published several stories recently on emerging markets and how pursuit of them may contribute to profitable growth. We highlight several of the articles here.

How Guy Carpenter Can Help: Catastrophe Risks in Developing Economies: Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients successfully grow their business in emerging markets. Our GC Global Analytics and Advisory team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading risk analytics, strategic and technical advice and capital advisory.

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Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy. Recent studies by Swiss Re and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development suggest flood loss potential will grow as emerging economies continue to prosper.

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Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

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Catastrophe Models: Implications of Emerging Market Growth on the (Re)insurance Sector: Natural disaster risk assessment relies on probabilistic catastrophe models and historical data. The three main catastrophe modeling companies, AIR Worldwide, EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions, have therefore traditionally created modeling solutions for perils and territories considered to be peak risks. Although each modeling company has in recent years launched products for countries outside the more established markets of the United States and Western Europe, several gaps in coverage remain, particularly in emerging markets.

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Implications of Emerging Market Growth: ERM: Although improvements in ERM practices meant (re)insurers were better prepared for the major catastrophes of 2010 and 2011 than those in 2005, the global nature of these losses has prompted some companies to review their perception of risk. This international loss trend, along with insurance growth in emerging market regions, is driving the need for better and more comprehensive tools for modeling risk.

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2012 insured losses in aggregate were “normal.”

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Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company and City University of Hong Kong, issued its annual predictions for the 2012/2013 tropical cyclone season for the Australian region. The final forecast is for near-normal activity (12 tropical cyclones) for the region.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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Al-Qaeda Core Group

Al-Qaeda suffered a massive setback when U.S. forces killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in May 2011. The death of bin Laden was a huge blow to the al-Qaeda core group and represented the most significant counter-terrorism success for the United States to date. This, along with the demise of several other senior al-Qaeda figures in drone strike attacks in Pakistan, has weakened the core group’s capability to conduct spectacular attacks against Western countries. Nevertheless, al-Qaeda’s ideology and threat remain, and its aspiration to carry out large-scale attacks against Western interests has been reinforced by the new leadership of Ayman al-Zawahiri.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients successfully grow their business in emerging markets. Our GC Global Analytics and Advisory team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading risk analytics, strategic and technical advice and capital advisory. We employ over 300 modeling, actuarial and advisory professionals through our GC Analytics®**, Global Advisory and GC Securities* teams who closely collaborate with Guy Carpenter’s global broking force to deliver the best insights and growth opportunities to our clients. We encourage you to contact your Guy Carpenter representative to review and discuss your modeling, advisory and capital needs in more detail. Among the specific services and tools we utilize and offer are proprietary modeling, the i-aXs® data management platform, MetaRisk®, portfolio management, predictive analytics, advisory services and actuarial expertise.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Aggregate Covers

Reinsurance remains the best form of protection against catastrophe losses. Following the increased frequency of major catastrophic events witnessed in 2010 and 2011, many companies are revisiting the benefits of aggregate coverage. Aggregate coverage has long been offered in the reinsurance market because it is a solution that focuses on mitigating the impact of the frequency of loss. While much of the focus for catastrophe coverage is around severe shock losses, aggregates are also useful for horizontal coverage needs or a combination of frequency and severity.

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