Floods are among the most destructive hazards and as more people move to urban areas, flooding is having a growing impact on larger populations and economic losses.
Here we bring together recent GC Capital Ideas’ posts that have focused on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries.
Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.
Lloyd’s: What Will Success Look Like? If Lloyd’s is successful in achieving the growth and diversification outlined in its near-term and long-term strategic plans, it can expect to capitalize on business opportunities in emerging market economies such as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Growth, however, will not necessarily be limited to these markets. Other countries in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America are experiencing strong growth and increasing insurance penetration, and these territories also present attractive opportunities for Lloyd’s.
Growth Potential in Developing Markets: Positive premium growth trends in developing markets are expected to be sustained over the next decade. During this time, emerging markets are expected to drive global economic growth, and foreign direct investment in these emerging regions is likely to increase. In Brazil alone, investment in infrastructure is expected to amount to USD550 billion over the next few years as the country prepares to host the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics in 2016. China and India too are expected to continue to see robust growth in the next ten years.
State of the Reinsurance Market, Part II: Inflation/Deflation Expectations, Investment Returns: Expansionary monetary policy has fueled concerns that inflation could increase in the medium term, but the picture is less clear in the near term. While consumer price indices in Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), the United States and the rest of the G7 currently exhibit positive trends, consensus forecasts show borderline disinflationary trends in the nearer term in the United States and many developed markets.
Here we gather recent GC Capital Ideas posts that focus on flood risk and flood events in the Asia Pacific region.
Floods in Eastern Australia: Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes.
Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.
Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.
Guy Carpenter Develops Database of Industrial Estates in China, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion.
Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report, there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.
Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand. Flooding also forced seven huge industrial estates in central regions to close, causing damage to the industrial sector in the billions of U.S. dollars.
David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Positive premium growth trends in developing markets are expected to be sustained over the next decade. During this time, emerging markets are expected to drive global economic growth, and foreign direct investment in these emerging regions is likely to increase. In Brazil alone, investment in infrastructure is expected to amount to USD550 billion over the next few years as the country prepares to host the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics in 2016. China and India too are expected to continue to see robust growth in the next ten years.
David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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The trend of increasing non-peak zone insured losses has coincided with rapid economic growth in emerging economies. During the last decade, developing nations have driven global economic growth, symbolized by China becoming the second-largest economy in the world. Increasingly stable economic and socio-political conditions in many countries in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Eastern Europe and Africa have supported growing investment in these regions because of the attractive opportunities for companies seeking long-term growth.
October 31, 2012: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion. In light of the disproportionate contribution of losses from industrial estates to overall insured loss, Guy Carpenter & Company has developed a database of industrial parks in Asia to help clients better identify and evaluate potential risks in the region.
Guy Carpenter has received approval from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) to open a new branch office in Shanghai, China. The new branch will be headed up by Phil Xue.
Matthew Day, Senior Vice President
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Initiatives such as those described are designed to help Lloyd’s grow in developing markets. The growth of emerging markets, combined with the global movement of capital, is resulting in the development of local underwriting skills and capacity. In recognition of the increasing importance of regional insurance markets, and the fact that insureds are looking for local experts with cultural and linguistic understanding, Lloyd’s is in the process of enhancing its network of local distribution platforms. Work is also underway to streamline the broker accreditation and coverholder approval process.
Australia & New Zealand
The handful of casualty placements in Australia/New Zealand at the July 1, 2012, renewal continued to operate against a backdrop of a benign claims environment. As a result, reinsurers were constrained in their efforts to increase rates to offset their declines in investment interest income. General casualty lines renewed within a range of down 4 percent to up 3 percent, with reinsurers seeking rate increases of 3 percent to 5 percent.
