July 30th, 2015
Review of 2015 Tropical Cyclone Season Activity Predictions
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here we review the 2015 seasonal predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
Posts Tagged ‘climate’
July 15th, 2015
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes 2015 Predictions for Tropical Cyclone Formations and Landfalls
Posted at 4:45 PM ET
The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter, and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, today released their 2015 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls.
July 22nd, 2014
2014 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Predictions
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
A recent study shows it is possible to use a regional climate model to more accurately predict the number of tropical cyclone formations compared to predictions based solely on a global climate model.
July 15th, 2014
Chart: U.S. Landfall To Basin Ratio — Detected Hurricanes (1900-2013)
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
The chart indicates that the proportion of hurricanes counted in the Atlantic Basin and those that made landfall has been very volatile through the years. While there is indeed a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls, statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community (Coughlin et al., 2009; Dailey et al., 2009).
July 14th, 2014
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part III: What Are We Preparing For Anyway?
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
James Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist
Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with ratings on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).
July 10th, 2014
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part II: El Niño Phenomenon
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist
The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).
July 9th, 2014
2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part I: One Never Truly Knows
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
James Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist
The 2004 hurricane season was a weak El Niño year, which brought five landfalling U.S. hurricanes, four of which affected Florida.
June 24th, 2014
Uncertainty Surrounding the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Posted at 11:30 PM ET
Guy Carpenter today released its briefing on the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The report examines the factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season and emphasizes that while predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and preparation is key for property owners and the (re)insurance industry alike.
June 23rd, 2014
Review Of Climate Change
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas stories focused on climate change.
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes New Annual Report: The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter, released its fifth annual report presenting the highlights of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 16 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.
Third U.S. Climate Report Is Available: The White House released the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment report on May 6, 2014. The report was constructed with input of many U.S. scientists and coordinated by a cross section of U.S. interests including the energy sector.
Responding to Climate Change: It is vital for (re)insurers to consider how climate change could impact future losses. Global warming potentially poses a serious financial threat to the insurance industry with implications for catastrophe risk perception, pricing and modeling assumptions.
Climate Change: A Look into the Future: Global climate models project a best estimate of a further two to four degree (Celsius) increase in the mean temperature of the Earth by the end of this century. Although this may seem insignificant on an intuitive level, the resulting impacts are of significant concern. Sea-level rise is the most significant threat for coastal areas as a result of melting glaciers. Apart from this threat, changing weather patterns will result in drought and inland flood threats for some areas.
Global Warming: Adaptation Measures: The IPCC publications represent scientific consensus among many of the world’s top scientists (and scientific consensus is difficult to achieve). Their findings are generally consistent with the broader scientific literature.
Global Warming: Losses: Economic losses resulting from natural disasters increased from USD75.5 billion in the 1960s to USD659.9 billion in the 1990s (IPCC AR4, 2007 - Working Group II, Section 1.2.8.4). Insured losses have also increased, and “the dominant signal is of significant increase in the values of exposure” (IPCC AR4, 2007 - Working Group II, Section 1.3.8.4). Furthermore, the IPCC states that “failure to adjust for time-variant economic factors yields loss amounts that are not directly comparable and a pronounced upward trend for purely economic reasons.”
May 20th, 2014
Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes New Annual Report
Posted at 2:00 PM ET
The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of the City University of Hong Kong and Guy Carpenter, today released its fifth annual report presenting the highlights of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 16 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.
