Guy Carpenter released its mid-year market report, which addresses the top risks (re)insurers face as they seek profitable growth.
David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Over the last five years, robust economic growth has been replaced by financial crisis, economic stagnation and fears of a Eurozone split. Although the insurance sector has remained solid and functioned admirably in the face of such difficulty, the operating environment is as challenging as ever.
Alex Moczarski, President and Chief Executive Officer, Guy Carpenter & Company, and Chairman, Marsh & McLennan Companies International, introduces the Guy Carpenter press briefing at the Monte Carlo Rendez-Vous in this GC Capital Ideas videocast.
2012 Macroeconomic Themes
As we bid farewell to a tumultuous 2011 and enter 2012, it is becoming very clear that the (re)insurance sector will remain exposed to profound changes in the global economy. The coming year promises to be one of economic, monetary and political transition.
Standard & Poor’s has downgraded the U.S. sovereign debt rating to AA+ from AAA. Implications for (re)insurers worldwide are mixed. Although there are broad economic implications, markets appear to have anticipated at least some of these, which could forestall rash or catastrophic outcomes. The long-term effects, however, could be profound.
Chris Klein, Guy Carpenter’s Head of Business Intelligence, reviews the dramatic change and improvement in reinsurers’ fortunes following the global financial crisis. He reviews the year- end 2009 earnings results of the Guy Carpenter Bermuda Reinsurance Composite. He also reviews the primary drivers for capital decline and then growth among those reinsurers in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The impact of capital growth on capacity is also discussed.
A briefing published today by Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC looks ahead to the possible effects of inflation on long-tail reinsurance, as well as the impact of the credit crunch on reinsurers in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis. The briefing, Casualty Specialty Update, examines the twin pressures that inflation and the global credit crunch are exerting on the global casualty reinsurance industry.
Peter Zaffino, President & CEO
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All eyes will be on January, 1 2009. As we approach the next renewal season, another round of rate decreases seems likely. The pace should be slower than it was through 2008, thanks to greater underwriter discipline than in previous downturns. Thus, even though the market has not been catastrophe-free, it has been able to absorb the losses, as the industry is well-capitalized. Fears of a mega-catastrophe and pressure from broader economic conditions should keep underwriters from assuming inadequately priced risk.
