David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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RMS released an updated Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) in July 2012, version 3.1.2. The new model revised the annual frequency of a terrorism attack on U.S. soil. No updates were made to geographies outside the United States.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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AIR implemented significant model updates in version 13 of CLASIC/2^TM, released in 2011. The updates impacted hazard components such as the target and landmark database, event frequency estimates and exposure and policy conditions.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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To support the process of managing and underwriting the terrorism peril, (re)insurers are increasingly using data management and modeling tools to analyze the risk. The dynamic nature of terrorism and the uncertainty in identifying the targets and frequency of attacks requires a specialized approach to manage the risk.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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Although the need for the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007 (TRIPRA) is clear, reinsurance protection can help companies withstand the non-renewal or alteration of the program. Indeed, even though the federal backstop currently remains in place, some insurers have decided to further protect their balance sheet with reinsurance protections. These standalone reinsurance protections typically exclude losses resulting from nuclear, biological, radiological or chemical instruments, but would protect all losses from their property, casualty and workers’ compensation business written. Standalone reinsurance pricing continues to vary depending on thegeographical location of the risk(s) as well as proximity of the risk to a perceived target of terrorism.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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There are now limited expectations of terrorism insurance being addressed in Congress before TRIPRA’s expiration in 2014. If TRIPRA is not extended or is substantially modified, there will be an impact on embedded terrorism insurance coverage, standalone terrorism pricing/demand for capacity and TRIPRA captive placements.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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The future of the federal terrorism insurance backstop continues to dominate the U.S. terrorism (re)insurance market. Despite the reduced risk of a spectacular terrorist attack on the scale of the September 11, 2001, attacks, extremists continue to pursue attacks on U.S. soil and (re)insurers are therefore lobbying to extend the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007 (TRIPRA). The program is currently due to expire in December 2014 and there is considerable uncertainty at this time as to whether Congress will renew the program or how it may propose to alter its structure. Should TRIPRA not be renewed or if substantial changes are made to the program, it may impact primary commercial lines writers and their ability to provide the same terrorism insurance limits currently offered today. Without TRIPRA, some insurers could withdraw from certain geographical areas or may actually exit lines of business, for example, workers’ compensation.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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To help (re)insurers manage the global terrorist threat, terrorism reinsurance pools have been created in a number of countries. The pools were established in reaction to the specific threats faced within each country, and each pool generally requires a declaration by the national government that a terrorist event has occurred to trigger coverage. In the countries where compulsory or optional terrorism reinsurance pools exist, property insurance policies can be extended to include terrorism coverage in accordance with the local pool. In such situations, any standalone terrorism and sabotage policy would be issued as difference in conditions (DIC) and difference in limits (DIC/DIL) of the locally issued property policy.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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The unrest around the world outlined earlier in the report has begun to impact the terror (re)insurance market, not only with regard to supply and demand but also in terms of how risks and coverages are defined. Although there is an abundance of capacity in the market due to the absence of a recent major terrorism loss (resulting in a stable to softening treaty terrorism market), civil unrest and/or riot coverages in some international terrorism programs are impacting several carriers. Indeed, the dramatic increase in global unrest has caused an increased frequency of localized or territory-specific losses in the facultative reinsurance market.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
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Since the devastating terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the (re)insurance sector has focused primarily on the potential for similar attacks in major metropolitan areas around the world. The threat posed by transnational terrorists, and al-Qaeda in particular, has dominated (re)insurers’ approach to terrorism risks. However, as described in Section 1 of this report, the nature of the terrorist threat has evolved in recent years. The core al-Qaeda group has been weakened by the deaths and arrests of several key leaders and improved counter-terrorism strategies. These developments have hindered al-Qaeda’s ability to launch spectacular attacks in the United States and other Western nations and prompted regional affiliate groups to independently strengthen and increasingly target Western interests around the world.

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