Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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The time-honored principle of diversification used in many areas of financial management applies equally well to reinsurance placements. From the ancient days of river commerce in China, where merchants divided their cargo between barges to avoid total loss, diversification has been a key principle of insurance and later reinsurance markets. Given the current financial turmoil in reinsurance markets, there is a legitimate pressure from investors, top management, and the rating agencies for cedents to seek only the highest rated of reinsuring partners. But this worthy objective needs to be balanced with the diversification principle, so that cedents can reduce their probability of zero recovery, as demonstrated in the above analysis.  

This series is limited to consideration of diversification among a panel of reinsurers. Cedents also have options to diversify to other forms of risk transfer, notably risk securitization. In particular, catastrophe bonds as currently structured may reduce the credit risk practically to zero, because they mandate a full collateralization of the limit at risk.

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Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Instrat®, Guy Carpenter’s quantitative services unit, has developed a reinsurer credit model. It allows an analyst to input a mixture of reinsurers and measure the impact of the diversification effect. The model allows for the specification of correlation levels for reinsurer defaults. It also allows for the chance of partial recoveries.

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Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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In many instances, a common and useful approach to risk management issues involves establishing metrics and monitoring actions in light of certain benchmarks. Risk metrics are generally easier to understand and capture important summary information as opposed to trying to deal with, for example, a comparison of entire probability distributions.

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Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Case 1: Base Case

A hypothetical ceding company contracts for the USD200 million casualty cover from a single Aaa rated reinsurer. The probability of a default is 1 percent, with a loss of USD200 million, while the probability of no default is 99 percent and would carry no loss.

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Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Cedents are becoming increasingly concerned about the security of their reinsurers, particularly in light of the global financial catastrophe. Diversification, a time-honored approach to managing risk, may offer part of the solution. Cedents may benefit from diversifying reinsurance placements among many reinsurers. Thus, the approach applied to asset management can be applied to reinsurance placements, as well. The syndication process carried out within the broker market results in an important reduction of the “no recovery” potential that could arise from reinsurer defaults. Diversification may reduce the probability of no recovery, even if the likelihood of default among reinsurers is correlated.

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Donald Mango, Chief Actuary
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The financial catastrophe currently tearing through financial markets has changed the face of risk. Diversification, once the standard for reducing exposure, has been weakened by a convergence of threats on both sides of the balance sheet. (Re)insurer capital is under assault, and a more robust risk management technique is needed. Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) may help the situation, offering an integrated view of portfolio perils and the tools necessary to develop an effective risk transfer strategy.

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