Posts Tagged ‘El Nino’



July 24th, 2017

Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre Publishes New Annual Report

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

gcacic_advThe report, covering the Centre’s activities during 2016, is divided into five sections.

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June 28th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part II: Factors Influencing 2017 Forecasts

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

El Niño Southern Oscillation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon of shifting sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical East Pacific. The warm phase, or “El Niño,” is related to elevated wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, which disrupts tropical cyclone formation, usually with a reduction in hurricane counts for the Atlantic Basin. The cool phase, or “La Niña,” is related to elevated hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin due to reduced wind shear.

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June 27th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As hurricane season begins in the North Atlantic Basin, several agencies have produced seasonal outlooks of 2017 tropical activity including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Weather Company (TWC/IBM) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) (1). These seasonal outlooks give a sense of overall expected activity for the basin at large but do not estimate the number of landfalls. These agencies stress the need for readiness for a landfalling hurricane, as with any hurricane season.

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November 10th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Post-El Niño: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-smIn June, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, released the 2016 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls. The predictions were for the period from May through October for three regions:

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November 9th, 2016

Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2016: Executive Summary: Post-El Niño: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

bromo-volcano-east-java-indonesia-smThe U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center predicts there is 55 percent to 60 percent chance that strong El Niño conditions will transition to La Niña conditions in the fall and winter of 2016-2017.(1) This kind of transition year has been observed four times since 1950 (1966, 1973, 1983 and 1998).

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March 21st, 2016

Guy Carpenter Cites El Niño and North Atlantic Oscillation as Key Climate Drivers in 2015

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today reported that 2015 marked one of the strongest El Niño periods on record, while a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was evident both at the beginning and close of the year.

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July 30th, 2015

Review of 2015 Tropical Cyclone Season Activity Predictions

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review the 2015 seasonal predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Basins. 

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July 29th, 2015

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - What Are We Preparing for Anyway?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).

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July 23rd, 2015

Impact of SSTs on the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Seasonal outlook providers note the cooler than average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic as a key factor for a quiet season.

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July 22nd, 2015

El Niño’s Impact on the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is signaled by sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific, with warm “El Niño” phases and cold “La Niña” phases. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone development, generally resulting in fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (1) and for African “Cape Verde” type storms.

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