Emil Metropoulos, Workers Compensation and Terrorism Specialty Practice Leader

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Traditionally, workers compensation insurers’ risk assessment was based on data collected at certain times of year, such as policy renewal. And parts of the data set may rely on qualitative metrics like standard loss survey questionnaires, which can omit pertinent questions. By using telematics, employers and insurers can collect real-time data and institute a continuous feedback loop to identify unsafe conditions, immediately warn a worker who may be at risk and monitor and reward those who take corrective action.

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Emil Metropoulos, Workers Compensation and Terrorism Specialty Practice Leader

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The advent of connected devices and the Internet of Things (IoT) is opening exciting new doors in the insurance industry. The auto liability market has transformed from one in which underwriting relied on proxy variables such as driving history, demographics and credit scores to one in which telematics and real-time, personalized driving statistics inform risk assessment.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients manage their terrorism risks around the world. Our GC Analytics®  team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading proprietary catastrophe models, actuarial services and capital models. We encourage you to contact your Guy Carpenter representative to review and discuss your modeling and capital needs in more detail.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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To support the process of managing and underwriting the terrorism peril, (re)insurers are increasingly using data management and modeling tools to analyze the risk. The dynamic nature of terrorism and the uncertainty in identifying the targets and frequency of attacks requires a different approach to manage the risk.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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Overview

The gentle, downward drift that has occurred in global terrorism-specific reinsurance pricing since the market peak in 2002-2004 has recently given way to a flatter pricing environment as reinsurers evaluate their overall capital position and await the outcome of the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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Unstable Territories

It is interesting to note that Maplecroft’s TRI has Somalia and Yemen showing an increasing trend of terrorist activity, as both countries are deeply unstable and some ungoverned regions have become havens for militant groups. As noted above, AQAP in Yemen is now considered to be one of the most significant risks to the Western world. The rising terrorist threat emanating from Somalia, meanwhile, means the country now tops Maplecroft’s TRI.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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Global Terrorist Attacks

The increasingly diverse and dispersed threat has seen worldwide terrorist activity rise in recent years. The number of global terrorist attacks peaked at more than 14,400 in 2006 (see Figure 1). Although there has been a slight dip in the number of attacks over the last five years, they remain at historically high levels. Attacks increased dramatically in Afghanistan and Iraq following the deployment of coalition combat troops. Several other countries have also witnessed a big jump in terrorist activity recently, including Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Paul Knutson, Managing Director, Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice Present, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President
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Al-Qaeda suffered a massive setback when US forces killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in May 2011. The death of bin Laden was a huge blow to the al-Qaeda core group and represented the most significant counter-terrorism success for the United States to date. Although a new leadership structure for al-Qaeda has already emerged, with Ayman Zawahiri at the helm, bin Laden’s ability to inspire and fund individuals and affiliated groups will not be easily replaced.

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Aaron Bueler, Global Head of Workers Compensation Specialty and Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice President of Casualty Specialty
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Sudden natural disasters such as the tragic Tohoku earthquake in March are not the only catastrophes that can impact insurers’ balance sheets and policyholder surplus. Such well publicized natural catastrophes only account for about 10 percent of insurers’ notable capital and surplus impairments triggering regulatory action and concern . Of the remaining 90 percent, by far the single largest cause of impairments over the past 40 years (1969-2009) emanated from inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves — resulting in approximately 40 percent of the cases.

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