Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC sister company Oliver Wyman, and the Financial Times have released a new report entitled: Global Emerging Risks Survey: Steering the Course, Seizing the Opportunity.
Chris Klein, Guy Carpenter’s Head of Business Intelligence, reviews the dramatic change and improvement in reinsurers’ fortunes following the global financial crisis. He reviews the year- end 2009 earnings results of the Guy Carpenter Bermuda Reinsurance Composite. He also reviews the primary drivers for capital decline and then growth among those reinsurers in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The impact of capital growth on capacity is also discussed.
Henry Keeling, President and CEO — International Operations
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At the end of 2008, the normal pre-renewal uncertainty was magnified by the effects of the most severe financial crisis in more than 70 years. Financial markets were in turmoil, and the cost of capital was rising. Yet, these pressures were counterbalanced by capital positions that remained sufficient, despite the impairment of investment assets. The outcome was relatively benign, but anxiety was endemic before the January 1, 2009 reinsurance renewal. Now, 12 months later, the marketplace is much different, indicating the remarkable recovery that has occurred in 2009.
Emil Metropoulos, Senior Vice President
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The global financial crisis that has unleashed havoc on credit and equity markets is the most recent casualty catastrophe (with both systemic and classic clash characteristics), and it may be the largest in recent memory … but it certainly isn’t the first. In fact, there have been many, and their frequency has increased over the past two decades, allowing financial markets little reprieve from one disaster to the next.
The stock market crash of Oct. 19, 1987, kicked off the modern casualty catastrophe age. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 22 percent of its value, earning the event the appellation “Black Monday.” Since then, we have endured the initial public offering (IPO) laddering and equity analyst scandals associated with the “dot-com bubble,” as well as accounting irregularities at Enron, Tyco, WorldCom, Adelphia and others. The loss of shareholders’ wealth with each of these events was profound, but none has been as severe as the one that currently has the world’s financial markets in its grasp.
Carl Bach, Managing Director and John Barrows, Vice President
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This year, the number of traditional multi-line insurance carriers increased from 50 percent to 63 percent, with specialty carriers slipping to 34 percent. The response in 2007 was equivalent to 2008. More than half of all respondents had 2008 GWP of less than USD100 million, and 24 percent were between USD101 million and USD500 million. None wrote more than USD1 billion in 2008.
Carl Bach, Managing Director and John Barrows, Vice President
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Operating Platform
Carriers are still flexible with regard to the services that PAs/MGAs provide, including system use and claim handling. Ninety-five percent of respondents expect the PA/MGA to underwrite, rate, quote and bind the business, as well as issue and service policies, up from 80 percent in 2008. Loss control and premium audit services remain important to some carriers, securing 40 percent and 42 percent, respectively — roughly unchanged year-over-year.
Carl Bach, Managing Director and John Barrows, Vice President
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The Program Administrators and Managing General Agents (PA/MGA) market has remained remarkably consistent from 2008 to 2009, despite the outbreak of the worst financial crisis in more than 70 years. While the number of respondents perceiving market growth has declined since last year, the outlook remains quite upbeat, especially given the year’s tumultuous market conditions.
David Lewin, Head of the European Casualty Specialty, discusses the impact of monetary and non-monetary inflation in this new GC Capital Ideas podcast. Click the audio player below to listen to the interview, or download the interview in a file that will work with your iPod.
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David Lewin, Managing Director
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When problems in the subprime mortgage market erupted into a full financial catastrophe last year, conventional wisdom suggested that property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies would suffer. The culprit, many believed, would not be investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) like the life insurers. Rather, it would be the possibility of slipped bond ratings because of problems with bond insurers, ultimately lowering the value of the bonds held in P&C investment portfolios. The increase in insured losses as a direct result of subprime and the ensuing credit crunch would certainly drive P&C companies to have poor returns, the thinking continued. Even at the mid-point of 2008, talk of a turn in the market began to percolate.
Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Evolution of the Property-Catastrophe Reinsurance Market
This year’s 8 percent Guy Carpenter World ROL Index increase differs profoundly from the 65 percent surge that followed Hurricane Andrew and the 24 percent hike following the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. Even after losing 18 percent of its aggregate capital following the 2008 financial catastrophe, reinsurers were unable to push for the high rates that some expected. The evolution of the reinsurance industry over the past two decades suggests that carriers have become much more adept at managing risk and capital, making it easier to absorb shock losses and manage the cost to transfer risk.
