Posts Tagged ‘GC Analytics’



June 28th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part II: Factors Influencing 2017 Forecasts

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

El Niño Southern Oscillation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon of shifting sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical East Pacific. The warm phase, or “El Niño,” is related to elevated wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, which disrupts tropical cyclone formation, usually with a reduction in hurricane counts for the Atlantic Basin. The cool phase, or “La Niña,” is related to elevated hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin due to reduced wind shear.

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June 27th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As hurricane season begins in the North Atlantic Basin, several agencies have produced seasonal outlooks of 2017 tropical activity including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Weather Company (TWC/IBM) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) (1). These seasonal outlooks give a sense of overall expected activity for the basin at large but do not estimate the number of landfalls. These agencies stress the need for readiness for a landfalling hurricane, as with any hurricane season.

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June 12th, 2017

GC Capital Ideas CAT-i Stories: For First Half, 2017

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here is a look back at the CAT-i stories covering January through mid-June of 2017.

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June 6th, 2017

The Challenge in Applying Models Effectively

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review GC Capital Ideas posts about how (re)insurers are utilizing model applications to improve their understanding of their risk exposure.

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May 24th, 2017

Guy Carpenter Sees Market Shift Towards Core Model Strategy

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

eagle_matthew-sm1Matthew Eagle, Head of International Analytics

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Industry Moves Away From Multi-Model Approach Given Current Market Conditions

Insurers and reinsurers are increasingly adopting a core model strategy based around a detailed assessment of its capabilities, instead of the multi-model or blended approach as investment in modeling capabilities comes under pressure, says Matthew Eagle, Head of GC Analytics® - International at Guy Carpenter.

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May 12th, 2017

Canada Flood Events, May 6 - 11

Posted at 7:06 AM ET

canadaflood-5-11-map-smA slow-moving upper-level weather pattern with an embedded frontal system has brought periods of heavy rainfall to areas of eastern Canada to include the Saint Lawrence, Ottawa and Rideau Rivers and surrounding watersheds. The heavy rainfall together with melting snow has caused significant flooding for areas of southern Québec and eastern Ontario to include areas of Montréal and the National Capital Region. Flood control measures in north Montréal were also compromised, causing the flood threat to amplify. At least 4,141 homes have been flooded in Québec. More heavy rainfall is expected over the coming days.

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May 4th, 2017

Midwestern United States Flood/SCS Event, April 28 – May 4

Posted at 2:36 PM ET

gen-significant-flood-april-28-may-4-sm

A significant severe thunderstorm outbreak with heavy rainfall has affected areas from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes and Northeast, with historic flooding in parts of the Central Mississippi Valley. Significant rainfall amounts of over ten inches occurred over saturated soils of the Central Mississippi Valley and surrounding watersheds. The rainfall produced historic flooding on some rivers, and the Mississippi River itself is expected to approach record flood stage at Cape Girardeau over the coming days. Flood impacts have been locally severe and include reports of property damage, numerous road closures, evacuations and water rescues. A levee breach has forced evacuations near Pocahontas, Arkansas.

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March 23rd, 2017

Strategic Growth Analysis – The Guy Carpenter Approach: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

chu_julia_photograph-smJulia Chu, Managing Director

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The analysis progresses with a retrospective financial analysis that demonstrates “what if” the company had a share of the wallet in that particular business. Synergies between the existing business and growth opportunities can be exposed. Our research compares annual volatility, which is the standard deviation of ten or more years of a company’s underwriting margin, with the pro-forma profitability or five year average underwriting margin if the company had written specific businesses.

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March 22nd, 2017

Strategic Growth Analysis – The Guy Carpenter Approach: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

chu_julia_photograph-smJulia Chu, Managing Director

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The changes in today’s property and casualty (P&C) insurance marketplace present insurers with many challenges to capital management and risk transfer techniques. Insurers are compelled to leverage their capital positions to increase and diversify their market shares to an unprecedented degree. Preserving the status quo is not an option for long-term viability. Profitable growth is a key priority for companies seeking additional return. Companies need to enter new lines of business or geographies strategically with proper analysis. Guy Carpenter offers proprietary analytical tools, intellectual capital and expertise to help companies determine and evaluate their growth plans while maintaining an acceptable level of risk and profitability.

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February 8th, 2017

Southern U.S. Severe Thunderstorms

Posted at 2:11 PM ET

us-local-storm-reports-february-7-2017-smA severe thunderstorm outbreak has affected areas from Louisiana to Kentucky to Florida. Several tornadoes have been reported in Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. This includes a probable EF-3 tornado affecting the East New Orleans area, according to media reports. Significant property damage has been reported for several areas, with especially severe impacts for the East New Orleans tornado. Downed trees and powerlines with light to moderate property damage have been reported for affected areas of the Florida Panhandle. At least 36 injuries and one fatality have been reported in the media. Rescue and damage survey operations are ongoing, and it is too early to ascertain the full scope and severity of this event. Our first thoughts and concerns are with those directly affected by this event.

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