With 2009 coming to a close, this week we’re taking a look at the most popular stories of the year.

Cat Bonds Persevere in Tumultuous Market*: A slow issuance year in 2008 masks a story of resilience and risk management flexibility. After a record-setting year in 2007, catastrophe bond issuances fell 62 percent by issuance volume and 52 percent by transaction count last year. During the first half of the year catastrophe bond issuance was tempered by ample capacity and favorable rates in the traditional reinsurance market, dampening sponsor demand for alternative capacity sources, with the fourth quarter quieter than expected. Overall, however, catastrophe bonds generally withstood the impact of onerous market forces and survived a substantial financial market test of their utility as risk and capital management instruments.

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Cat Bond Update: Second Quarter 2009: The catastrophe bond market continues to advance, though issuances are down from 2008. The activity represents a positive rally from the hiatus during the second half of 2008. For the first half of 2009, nine bonds have been issued, with aggregate risk capital of USD1.38 billion. The continuing stabilization of financial markets and a decrease in catastrophe bond spreads, however, could result in more issuance activity in the second half of the year, particularly for sponsors which had considered issuances in the first and second quarters but deferred their plans because catastrophe bond spreads were considered to be too wide (i.e., catastrophe bond protection was considered to be too expensive).

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David Priebe, Chairman of Global Client Development *
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The third quarter is usually quiet for the catastrophe bond market, and 2009 was consistent with past years. Issuers completed two transactions, bringing USD412 million in risk capital to the market. Nonetheless, risk capital issued was up by a third relative to the same quarter last year, as both catastrophe bonds issued were upsized considerably. The consensus estimate for the entire year remains USD3 billion to USD4 billion, implying a strong fourth quarter for primary issuance.

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David Priebe, Chairman of Global Client Development
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A year ago, (re)insurers’ access to capital markets was in doubt. A worldwide financial crisis decimated balance sheets, sent equity values tumbling and caused credit markets to come to a standstill. Today, however, the situation has changed completely. Catastrophe bond issuances have resumed, and the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market is gaining momentum. (Re)insurers are turning to capital markets to address a wide range of strategic and tactical needs. It is clear that this source of capital remains both viable and reliable.

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Norman Brown, Managing Director, GC Securities and Bart Zanelli, Managing Director, GC Securities*
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A mergers and acquisitions (M&A) trend is beginning to form in the (re)insurance industry. With capital being restored to carriers’ balance sheets, M&A is expected to accelerate next year and particularly in 2011. Both strategic and tactical opportunities are being pursued, and as some (re)insurers capitalize on them, others will follow. A podcast at the end of this article provides deeper commentary and insights into the (re)insurance M&A market.

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Norm Brown and Bart Zanelli, both Managing Directors in GC Securities*, discuss the (re)insurance industry M&A market in this new GC Capital Ideas podcast. Click the audio player below to listen to the interview, or download the interview in a file that will work with your iPod.

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* Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

After a record year of M&A in 2003, the (re)insurance industry nearly fell silent in 2004. The number of transactions completed dropped from 42 (at a value of USD18 billion) in 2003 to 17 in 2004, with a total value of USD449 million. From 2005 through last year, the M&A market saw a growth trend emerge, ultimately reaching 59 transactions at an aggregate value of USD16.6 billion in 2008. Carriers have been busy this year, too: 40 deals have closed, with a total value of USD7.1 billion, at the end of the third quarter of 2009. And, the trend is likely to continue upward.

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* Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp.*
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The third quarter is traditionally quiet for the catastrophe bond market, and 2009 was no exception. Two transactions were closed, resulting in USD412 million in new risk capital.¹ Nonetheless, risk capital issued was up by a third relative to the same quarter last year, as both catastrophe bonds issued were upsized considerably. The consensus estimate for the entire year remains USD3 billion to USD4 billion, implying a strong fourth quarter for primary issuance.

• Issuance Activity
• Catastrophe Bond Redemptions
• Risk Capital Outstanding
• Issuance Composition
• Industry Loss Warranties
• Outlook for the Fourth Quarter

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For the first three quarters of 2009, 11 catastrophe bonds* were issued, for USD1.79 billion in risk capital. This trails the result posted for the first three quarters of 2008: 13 issuances, amounting to USD2.69 billion in catastrophe protection. Year-to-date issuance activity is down 33.5 percent from the same period in 2008.

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* Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

Catastrophe bond* risk capital outstanding peaked at the end of 2007, at USD14.02 billion. It then fell to USD12 billion by the end of 2008 before reaching USD11.3 billion at the end of July 2009. The current level is consistent with that of mid-year 2007.

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* Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the United States through GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC. Main Office: 1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10036. Phone: (212) 345-5000. Securities or investments, as applicable, are offered in the European Union by GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Reinsurance products are placed through qualified affiliates of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC. MMC Securities Corp., MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd. and Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC are affiliates owned by Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. This communication is not intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any security, financial instrument, reinsurance or insurance product.

GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp.*
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Six catastrophe bond transactions were completed in the second quarter of 2009, with USD808 million in risk capital coming to market. The number of bonds issued is down 25 percent year-over-year (from eight last year), and risk principal issued is off 54 percent from the USD1.75 billion issued during the second quarter of 2008. For the first half of the year, nine catastrophe bonds were issued, generating risk capital of USD1.38 billion. The first half of 2008 was more robust, with 11 transactions resulting in USD2.4 billion issued. From the first half of last year to the first half of this year, risk capital issued declined 42.5 percent, due in part to pricing conditions.

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