Posts Tagged ‘hurricane season’



June 28th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part II: Factors Influencing 2017 Forecasts

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

El Niño Southern Oscillation

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a phenomenon of shifting sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropical East Pacific. The warm phase, or “El Niño,” is related to elevated wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic Basin, which disrupts tropical cyclone formation, usually with a reduction in hurricane counts for the Atlantic Basin. The cool phase, or “La Niña,” is related to elevated hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin due to reduced wind shear.

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June 27th, 2017

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Storm Outlook for 2017: Normal to Above Average: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As hurricane season begins in the North Atlantic Basin, several agencies have produced seasonal outlooks of 2017 tropical activity including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), The Weather Company (TWC/IBM) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) (1). These seasonal outlooks give a sense of overall expected activity for the basin at large but do not estimate the number of landfalls. These agencies stress the need for readiness for a landfalling hurricane, as with any hurricane season.

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January 17th, 2017

Further Considerations on the Hurricane “Shield” Theory

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

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A recent New York Times article titled “Conditions That Form More Hurricanes Also Protect U.S., Study Finds” (1) notes a hurricane “shield” for the U.S. coast during busy hurricane seasons. The article, based on recent research by James Kossin, (2) provides valuable insight, including some notes of caution from other experts in the field, but the observations should be treated with a moment of pause. Some key points to consider:

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July 29th, 2015

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - What Are We Preparing for Anyway?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).

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July 28th, 2015

Atlantic Hurricane Season, Historical Impacts – Hurricane Betsy

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Hurricane Betsy made landfall on Key Largo with estimated winds of 125 mph (Category 3 hurricane) before entering the Gulf of Mexico in 1965.

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July 27th, 2015

Atlantic Hurricane Season, Historical Impacts — Hurricane Audrey

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Hurricane Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in 1957.

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July 21st, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season: What We Know Can Happen — Historical Impacts: Hurricane Betsy

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Hurricane Betsy made landfall on Key Largo, Florida, in 1965 with estimated winds of 125 mph — a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale — before entering the Gulf of Mexico.

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July 17th, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season: What We Know Can Happen — Historical Impacts: Hurricane Andrew

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Hurricane Andrew made U.S. landfall in 1992. The storm originated from a tropical wave and experienced disruptive wind shear until arriving in the West Atlantic. Once in the West Atlantic, Andrew first reached hurricane status on the morning of August 22 and then developed explosively into a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph when it made landfall on Florida’s coast.

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July 16th, 2014

Atlantic Hurricane Season: What We Know Can Happen — Historical Impacts: Hurricane Charley

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Hurricane Charley made U.S. landfall in 2004 with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Storm surge of six to seven feet was observed near Sanibel and Estero Islands, Florida.

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