Here we review the 2015 seasonal predictions for tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific and Atlantic Basins.
Posts Tagged ‘hurricane’
Any hurricane can produce wind, surge and inland flood impacts. The severity and scope of impacts is not always consistent with rating on the Saffir-Simpson scale, particularly for surge as we have seen with Katrina (2005) and Sandy (2012).
Hurricane Betsy made landfall on Key Largo with estimated winds of 125 mph (Category 3 hurricane) before entering the Gulf of Mexico in 1965.
Hurricane Audrey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in 1957.
Seasonal outlook providers note the cooler than average sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic as a key factor for a quiet season.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is signaled by sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific, with warm “El Niño” phases and cold “La Niña” phases. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone development, generally resulting in fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (1) and for African “Cape Verde” type storms.
As illustrated in the figure below, the historical proportion between basin counts and landfalls has been very volatile on an annual basis. There is only a weak correlation between hurricane counts in the Atlantic Basin and the number of U.S. landfalls. The statistical significance is a subject of some debate in the scientific community. (1)
As with any season, a landfalling hurricane can be a serious threat regardless of seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic Basin at large.
Guy Carpenter today released a briefing on the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. According to the report, hurricane activity for the Atlantic Basin is projected to be below average for the 2015 season although impactful landfalls can occur in any hurricane season, even those of reduced activity.
Here we review the evolving role of reinsurance in mitigating public sector risk through the expanding deployment of reinsurance and capital market solutions: