Guy Carpenter has published a new  briefing: 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Reach or Exceed 1995-2012 Average.  The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be a busy one, carrying at least average activity with respect to the 1995-2012 “active” period. Seasonal outlook providers consistently emphasize two factors: the absence of El Niño, which implicates average activity, and higher tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), which implicate higher activity.

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GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, today announced the placement of the Series 2013-1 Notes, with notional principal of $175,000,000, through a newly formed catastrophe bond shelf program, Blue Danube II Ltd., to benefit Allianz. This is the second time that Allianz has accessed PCS-MITT triggered cat bond protection and the eighth overall cat bond issuance benefitting Allianz since 2007.

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The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter and City University of Hong Kong, today released its fourth annual report presenting the findings of the GCACIC’s research activities from the past year. The report details the findings of 22 projects conducted by the GCACIC, which focus on climate problems in the Asia-Pacific region as well as on a global scale.

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GC Securities, a division of MMC Securities Corp., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, today announced the placement of the Series 2013-1 Notes, with notional principal of $300,000,000, through an existing catastrophe bond shelf program, Long Point Re III Ltd., to benefit Travelers. This is the second time that Travelers has accessed indemnity-triggered, fully collateralized reinsurance protection from the catastrophe bond market.

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A new briefing has been published with the purpose of informing Guy Carpenter’s approach to hurricane risk in the context of new scientific findings.

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Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company and City University of Hong Kong, issued its annual predictions for the 2012/2013 tropical cyclone season for the Australian region. The final forecast is for near-normal activity (12 tropical cyclones) for the region.

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Guy Carpenter has published a new briefing: Superstorm Sandy: Initial Impacts and Implications

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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As Table 1 shows, the three perils of wind, earthquake and flood have caused the heaviest losses to (re)insurers. While hurricanes in the United States have unsurprisingly generated the biggest wind losses, the most expensive earthquakes and floods have a more international flavor. Indeed, the most expensive earthquake loss and flood loss on record occurred last year in Japan and Thailand, respectively. Moreover, both the Tohoku earthquake/tsunami and the Thai floods revealed risks that (re)insurers had not previously considered, with CBI claims - resulting from supply chain failure - accounting for a large share of insured losses. High impact, low frequency events (such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones) and perils that typically are more regular (such as floods) are widespread in several developing markets, raising the prospect of more hidden loss potential.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Fortunately, 2012 has so far offered (re)insurers some respite on the global catastrophe front. Despite significant severe weather events in the United States, insured catastrophe losses during the first six months of the year were limited to around USD15 billion. This is lower than the most recent ten-year average loss of approximately USD19 billion and significantly below the USD76 billion recorded during the first half of 2011 (see Figure 1).

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Increasingly unstable air, diminishing wind shear and water temperatures in excess of 27 degrees C will enable tropical cyclone development. The historical record shows a greater threat to land from storms originating in these areas.

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