November 10th, 2016
Posted at 12:30 AM ET
Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 5 and MetaRisk® 9, the latest updates to its powerful suite of capital modeling tools built on more than 25 years of research and development.
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Category: Property
Tagged: cap mgmt, capital, Capital Models, ERM, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, loss reserves, MetaRisk, MetaRisk Reserve, modeling, Models, profitability, Property, Reinsurance, risk, White (Steve)
July 20th, 2015
Posted at 10:45 PM ET
Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling solution delivers a faster and more flexible aggregation tool as well as an updated and unique predictive model for calculating Solvency II and ORSA issues.
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Category: Casualty, Property
Tagged: cap mgmt, capital, Capital Models, Casualty, casualty reserve, GC Analytics, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, loss reserves, MetaRisk, MetaRisk Reserve, modeling, Models, ORSA, Property, Solvency II, White (Steve)
December 17th, 2014
Posted at 5:30 AM ET
Guy Carpenter announced today the launch of MetaRisk Reserve 4.0TM. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling tool delivers improved statistical models and an enhanced user interface.
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Category: Casualty, Property
Tagged: cap mgmt, capital, Capital Models, Casualty, casualty reserve, GC Analytics, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, loss reserves, MetaRisk, MetaRisk Reserve, modeling, Models, Property, Solvency II, White (Steve)
December 15th, 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
“Dark matter” can be lurking on an insurer’s balance sheets in the form of a casualty catastrophe or an emerging and not as yet fully understood risk such as cyber. While there have been significant advances in quantifying the uncertainty pertaining to these risks, it is worth considering how they may manifest themselves in the future and what can be done about them now to protect from the “dark matter” downside.
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Category: Casualty
Tagged: Casualty, casualty reserve, Catastrophe, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, Liability, loss reserves, risk
November 17th, 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
From an “emerging risks” perspective it can be seen that the inadequacies of the “lump sum” method of compensation have been highlighted by a number of systemic factors:
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Category: Casualty
Tagged: Annuities, Casualty, Continental Europe, emerging risks, France, Germany, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, life, long term disability, medical, Reinsurance, risk
November 13th, 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Compensation for provision of long-term care for bodily injury is becoming an increasingly challenging problem for society in general and insurers in particular.
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Category: Casualty
Tagged: Annuities, Casualty, emerging risks, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, health, inflation, investment, Liability, life, long tail, long term disability, medical, UK
March 19th, 2014
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Victoria Jenkins, Managing Director
Contact
On a Hunch
Our experience in doing this has led to an “actuarial hunch” that PPO claims converted to their Ogden equivalents are not from the same underlying statistical distribution as traditional lump sum values. Fitting severity distributions to these claims in among the traditional lump sums can feel a bit like fitting to “apples and oranges.” On comparing claimants with similar injuries, claims settled more recently as a PPO, revalued to an Ogden basis, just seem to be more expensive than claims that were settled a few years ago prior to the arrival of PPO settlements. This difference persists even after adjusting for inflation and after adjusting for the fact that it is often the larger claims that settle as a PPO. If our observation turns out to be true, excess of loss reinsurance pricing could have an implicit double loading. First, in the inclusion of these claims in the original lump sum severity curve fitting process (including the derivation of the development pattern applied to lump sums) and second, in the PPO loading applied afterwards. Similarly this sort of distortion could affect the parameterization of capital models for classes of business that have experienced PPO claims.
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Category: Casualty
Tagged: Annuities, Casualty, Guy Carp, Guy Carpenter, inflation, Jenkins (Victoria), Legislation, UK
June 11th, 2013
Posted at 11:00 PM ET
Guy Carpenter & Company has been awarded a patent for MetaRisk Reserve by the U.S. Patent Office for creating a unique and easy-to-use predictive model for the analysis of reserve risk.
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Category: Casualty
Tagged: Casualty, casualty reserve, Donald Mango, Guy Carp, inflation, loss reserves, MetaRisk, MetaRisk Reserve, Models, risk management
March 7th, 2013
Posted at 1:00 AM ET
Here we bring together recent GC Capital Ideas’ posts that have focused on the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries.
Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.
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Lloyd’s: What Will Success Look Like? If Lloyd’s is successful in achieving the growth and diversification outlined in its near-term and long-term strategic plans, it can expect to capitalize on business opportunities in emerging market economies such as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Growth, however, will not necessarily be limited to these markets. Other countries in Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America are experiencing strong growth and increasing insurance penetration, and these territories also present attractive opportunities for Lloyd’s.
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Growth Potential in Developing Markets: Positive premium growth trends in developing markets are expected to be sustained over the next decade. During this time, emerging markets are expected to drive global economic growth, and foreign direct investment in these emerging regions is likely to increase. In Brazil alone, investment in infrastructure is expected to amount to USD550 billion over the next few years as the country prepares to host the soccer World Cup in 2014 and the summer Olympics in 2016. China and India too are expected to continue to see robust growth in the next ten years.
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State of the Reinsurance Market, Part II: Inflation/Deflation Expectations, Investment Returns: Expansionary monetary policy has fueled concerns that inflation could increase in the medium term, but the picture is less clear in the near term. While consumer price indices in Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), the United States and the rest of the G7 currently exhibit positive trends, consensus forecasts show borderline disinflationary trends in the nearer term in the United States and many developed markets.
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Category: Property
Tagged: Brazil, BRIC, Catastrophe, China, disinflation, emerging markets, flood, Guy Carp, India, inflation, investment, Lloyd's, macroeconomic, nat cat, Property, Reinsurance, Russia