The lines have begun to show deteriorating results in the most recent accident years.
Posts Tagged ‘Leong (Jessica)’
By extrapolating reserving trends, it may be possible to assess the sector’s reserve adequacy. Two cyclical patterns are clear.
- The cycle turned on an accident year basis in 2004. Industry-wide accident year deterioration now appears imminent.
- Guy Carpenter’s view of the cycle shows that over the last 30 years, accident years that begin to show deteriorating results continue to deteriorate.
Guy Carpenter has published its second annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks, a resource designed to help insurers assess risk parameters and improve economic capital modeling. The report provides benchmarks for underwriting and reserve risk by line of business and by industry segment for U.S. exposures, and can be used by insurers when benchmarking their economic capital models.
November 12, 2012: Guy Carpenter & Company announces that three members of its actuarial team have been awarded the 2011 Variance Prize for thought leadership in risk valuation, underwriting cycle modeling and risk benchmarks for the property-casualty market. The prize recognizes the best papers published to Variance, the scientific journal of the Casualty Actuarial Society.
As demonstrated in Figure 1, carriers released more reserves in 2011 than in 2010. This was in contrast to the general expectation for reserve releases to taper off from their peak in 2008. By analyzing the data closely, it becomes apparent that much of the 2011 calendar year redundancy was from the general liability - claims occurring line of business, shown in Figure 2 (the dotted lines again represent the movement in 2011). Accident years 2008 and 2009 for the general liability - claims occurring line show an unexpected downward turn in 2011, indicating more reserve releases than expected. This is similar to the downward turn for accident year 1992 in 1995.
Reserve releases have helped support financial results in the face of significant catastrophe losses in recent years. There are nevertheless indications that reserve redundancies will soon run out even though the sector continued to benefit from reserve releases on a calendar year basis in 2011. Figure 1 shows how calendar year redundancies have been a feature of earnings for a composite of 26 large U.S. P&C carriers since 1995.
Here we highlight the top stories on modeling that have appeared in GC Capital Ideas in the first six months of 2012.
1. Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering - Earthquake Aftershocks, EQECAT Perspective: Forecast Models: Earthquake sequences appear to be globally continuous over time. This suggests that seismic sources or faults may be part of a critically-stressed, self-organized network where earthquakes occur as a chain reaction with respect to one another. Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes as stresses move around in the fault network.
2. Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering - Earthquake Aftershocks, EQECAT Perspective: Probabilistic Hazard Analysis: The purpose of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is to quantify the rate (or probability) of exceeding various ground-motion levels at a site or sites, given all possible earthquakes. PSHA involves the following three steps: Characterization of the seismic-hazard source model(s); Specification of the ground motion model(s) or attenuation relationship(s); and Probabilistic calculation.
3. Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering - Earthquake Aftershocks: EQECAT Perspective: Introduction: EQECAT recently released a white paper examining earthquake clustering in the context of seismic hazard and loss assessment. The paper, Spatial and Temporal Earthquake Clustering: Part 2 - Earthquake Aftershocks, is EQECAT’s second in a three-part series about spatial and temporal earthquake clustering.
4. Calling All General Insurance Reserving Actuaries: Does the Bootstrap Model “Work”? Guy Carpenter’s extensive back-testing of reserve distributions created using the popular paid chain ladder bootstrap method has shown that these distributions materially under-estimate reserve risk.