Posts Tagged ‘life’



September 27th, 2016

Longevity Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The impacts to society from changes in longevity and life expectancy will be wide-ranging and incredibly difficult issues to grapple with. A 2012 International Monetary Fund (IMF) study revealed that if individuals lived three years longer than expected the cost of aging could increase by 50 percent. This translates to 50 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) in advanced economies and 25 percent of 2010 GDP in emerging economies. Globally that amounts to tens of trillions of US dollars. The United Nations expects the aggregate expenses of the elderly will double over the period between 2010 and 2050. The figure below shows the projected trend of rising life expectancy to continue in all regions of the globe regardless of economic advancement.

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August 23rd, 2016

Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

william-garland-smWill Garland, Managing Director

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Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy:

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April 28th, 2016

Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

william-garland-sm3Will Garland, Managing Director

Contact

Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy:

Continue reading…

April 20th, 2016

Emerging Risks for Life, Health and Longevity

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on the emerging risks affecting life, health and longevity. 

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November 11th, 2015

Longevity Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The impacts to society from changes in longevity and life expectancy will be wide-ranging and incredibly difficult issues to grapple with. A 2012 International Monetary Fund (IMF) study revealed that if individuals lived three years longer than expected the cost of aging could increase by 50 percent. This translates to 50 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) in advanced economies and 25 percent of 2010 GDP in emerging economies. Globally that amounts to tens of trillions of US dollars. The United Nations expects the aggregate expenses of the elderly will double over the period between 2010 and 2050. The figure below shows the projected trend of rising life expectancy to continue in all regions of the globe regardless of economic advancement.

Continue reading…

November 10th, 2015

Life, Health and Longevity Emerging Risks

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

In the last 150 years, dramatic improvements have been made in life expectancy. Some developments such as immunizations for smallpox, polio and measles created quantum improvements, while the proliferation of better lifestyles, clean water and more nutritious diets provided gradual and continuing change. While most historical life expectancy developments resulted from improvement in children’s mortality, in the 20th century, mortality rates declined significantly for older ages.

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October 14th, 2015

A Clearer View of Emerging Risks: Executive Summary, Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Crystalizing risks, as defined in Guy Carpenter’s 2014’s emerging risk report, are highly interrelated with the technology risks discussed in this year’s report. When we refer to crystalizing risk, the term refers to the timescale over which underwriters realize that the technology risk is manifesting itself — and how this view changes and intensifies until ultimate understanding of quantum is reached and liabilities are discharged. The risks associated with new technologies, implemented rapidly on such a global scale, by their nature operate to a large extent somewhat outside the bounds of our current knowledge. A viable response is therefore to establish business practices that aim to detect “weak signals” and monitor them in case they become “clear tendencies with a high potential for danger” (1). Most (re)insurers have groups of experts assigned to the task of building early warning systems that attempt to identify such lead indicators. Once such indicators are identified it is important that their financial and reserving implications are recognized promptly and accounted for correctly. In this respect a key task of regulators is to enforce prudent risk management and reserving methodologies that preserve a sustainable and level playing-field for responsible competition.

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September 13th, 2015

Guy Carpenter Examines Emerging Risks Impacting the (Re)insurance Industry

Posted at 9:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today published a new report, A Clearer View of Emerging Risks, which examines four key areas where risks continue to emerge or are largely unknown.

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September 12th, 2015

Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward

Posted at 10:30 PM ET

william-garland-sm3Will Garland, Managing Director

Contact

Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy:

Continue reading…

November 18th, 2014

Emerging Risk: Periodic Payment Orders

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

For a number of reasons the United Kingdom represents an extreme example of the impact of annuity compensation structures. For severe bodily injury cases it is now highly likely that the claimant will opt for an annuity structure (known as a periodic payment order, or PPO) rather than a lump-sum. These are often indexed accordingly to the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) (1). As a consequence, the uncertainties that had previously been transferred to the claimant are now retained by the insurer (and to a certain extent, its reinsurers). Unlike an individual claimant, the insurer needs to articulate these risks in its capital modeling. These risks can be categorized as follows:

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