The extent of rising insured losses from global natural catastrophes over the last 40 years is illustrated below.
Posts Tagged ‘loss reserves’
Thirty-five percent of insured natural catastrophe losses between 2009 and 2011 were located in Asia while only 33 percent were in the United States. Australia and New Zealand also saw a marked increase in natural catastrophe insured losses during this period, with 19 percent of the total. This is in stark contrast to the long-term trend of more than three-quarters of all insured natural catastrophe losses occurring in the United States.
The lines have begun to show deteriorating results in the most recent accident years.
By extrapolating reserving trends, it may be possible to assess the sector’s reserve adequacy. Two cyclical patterns are clear.
- The cycle turned on an accident year basis in 2004. Industry-wide accident year deterioration now appears imminent.
- Guy Carpenter’s view of the cycle shows that over the last 30 years, accident years that begin to show deteriorating results continue to deteriorate.
Guy Carpenter today announced the release of MetaRisk® 7.1, the latest version of the firm’s premier risk and capital management decision making tool. The platform offers access to a variety of new features and enhancements that will improve usability, increase overall functionality and enable the development of more accurate and efficient risk and capital models.
2012 insured losses in aggregate were “normal.”
Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients successfully grow their business in emerging markets. Our GC Global Analytics and Advisory team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading risk analytics, strategic and technical advice and capital advisory. We employ over 300 modeling, actuarial and advisory professionals through our GC Analytics®**, Global Advisory and GC Securities* teams who closely collaborate with Guy Carpenter’s global broking force to deliver the best insights and growth opportunities to our clients. We encourage you to contact your Guy Carpenter representative to review and discuss your modeling, advisory and capital needs in more detail. Among the specific services and tools we utilize and offer are proprietary modeling, the i-aXs® data management platform, MetaRisk®, portfolio management, predictive analytics, advisory services and actuarial expertise.
Guy Carpenter has published its second annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks, a resource designed to help insurers assess risk parameters and improve economic capital modeling. The report provides benchmarks for underwriting and reserve risk by line of business and by industry segment for U.S. exposures, and can be used by insurers when benchmarking their economic capital models.
The three key risks outlined in Guy Carpenter’s report: Overcoming Key Risks on the Road to Profitable Growth, Mid-Year Market Overview help explain the persistent low valuations experienced by many companies in the sector. It is apparent that nearly all P&C carriers are affected directly by at least one of these risks. In Guy Carpenter’s role as trusted strategic advisor, there are many opportunities to assist clients in addressing these issues.