Executive teams adapting to the changing dynamics of the specialty insurance and global reinsurance markets in an environment of excess capital, growing influence of convergence participants, low investment returns and diminishing reserve releases are presented with a series of strategic dilemmas and opportunities.
Posts Tagged ‘loss reserves’
Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary
In 2012 the insurance industry enjoyed more reserve releases, but many sources say that the releases of the last decade will soon run out. But when? Most insurance commentary reports on the reserve cycle but does not often attempt to explain why it exists. If we can understand the drivers of the cycle, we can do better in predicting where we are and where we are going.
Guy Carpenter and its sister company, Oliver Wyman, the international management consulting firm, have published the third annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks.
Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk® Reserve™ Awarded Patent as Breakthrough Innovation in Reserve Risk Modeling
Guy Carpenter & Company has been awarded a patent for MetaRisk Reserve by the U.S. Patent Office for creating a unique and easy-to-use predictive model for the analysis of reserve risk.
The extent of rising insured losses from global natural catastrophes over the last 40 years is illustrated below.
Thirty-five percent of insured natural catastrophe losses between 2009 and 2011 were located in Asia while only 33 percent were in the United States. Australia and New Zealand also saw a marked increase in natural catastrophe insured losses during this period, with 19 percent of the total. This is in stark contrast to the long-term trend of more than three-quarters of all insured natural catastrophe losses occurring in the United States.
The lines have begun to show deteriorating results in the most recent accident years.
By extrapolating reserving trends, it may be possible to assess the sector’s reserve adequacy. Two cyclical patterns are clear.
- The cycle turned on an accident year basis in 2004. Industry-wide accident year deterioration now appears imminent.
- Guy Carpenter’s view of the cycle shows that over the last 30 years, accident years that begin to show deteriorating results continue to deteriorate.
Guy Carpenter today announced the release of MetaRisk® 7.1, the latest version of the firm’s premier risk and capital management decision making tool. The platform offers access to a variety of new features and enhancements that will improve usability, increase overall functionality and enable the development of more accurate and efficient risk and capital models.
2012 insured losses in aggregate were “normal.”