Posts Tagged ‘loss reserves’



October 13th, 2014

Understanding Emerging Risks: Executive Summary

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

(Re)insurers today face a degree of change and uncertainty that appears to be evolving at an ever quickening pace. Guy Carpenter has published a report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks, highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber-attacks, terrorism and new compensation structures for long-term bodily injuries. The report seeks to identify and categorize these risks that are now confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.

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August 14th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Launches MetaRisk® 7.3

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the release of MetaRisk® 7.3, the latest version of the firm’s premier risk and capital management decision-making tool.

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June 19th, 2014

Chart: Reserve Cycle Measured by Accident Year

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

In this chart Guy Carpenter is looking at the reserve cycle in a different way: by studying the booked ultimate loss by accident year. We choose accident year because actuaries typically analyze losses according to their year of accident. The estimate of the ultimate loss for a particular accident year ideally should not change over time if the initial estimate was correct. However, using U.S. industry data, we find that as a particular accident year is re-estimated periodically, a cycle appears. Continue reading…

May 22nd, 2014

Insurance Gaps in Emerging Economies

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

From our Chart Room, we review the increasing gap between GDP growth and reinsurance in the Asia Pacific region and the small proportion of losses that were insured in both the advanced and emerging economies. 

 

Chart: Increasing Gap Between GDP Growth and Reinsurance Limit in Asia Pacific: The chart shows that growth in reinsurance catastrophe limit in the Asia Pacific region has clearly not kept pace with economic growth since 2006. Stronger rates of economic growth in such emerging markets mean the gap between economic and insured losses has the potential to increase further.

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Chart: Economic and Insured Losses in Advanced and Emerging Economies: The chart shows how small a proportion of losses were insured in both advanced and emerging markets between 2002 and 2011.

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May 9th, 2014

Industry Reserve Update: Conclusions

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

leong-jessica-bio-sep-2013Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary

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What does the analysis mean for financial year 2014? Given the trends in the cycle, it is useful to break this question down into two sections:

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May 8th, 2014

Liability Line That Appears To Be Deteriorating

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

leong-jessica-bio-sep-2013Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary

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Liability line that appears to be deteriorating: Commercial auto liability.

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May 7th, 2014

Liability Lines That Appear To Be Improving

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

leong-jessica-bio-sep-2013Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary

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Liability lines that appear to be improving: Workers compensation, medical professional liability and commercial multi peril.

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May 6th, 2014

What is driving the continued release of reserves?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

leong-jessica-bio-sep-2013Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary

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Seventy percent of the improvement for accident year 2012 can be attributed to two lines: homeowners and private passenger auto.

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May 5th, 2014

Industry Reserve Update — Which Way Is The Cycle Turning?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

leong-jessica-bio-sep-2013Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary

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With the release of the 2013 annual statutory statements, we have updated the Guy Carpenter reserve cycle analysis as shown in the chart. Overall, the figures indicate a trend showing the industry continuing to release reserves through this year, as two lines of business appear to exert the greatest impact on the cycle.

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April 29th, 2014

Insurance Industry Reserve Releases to Continue Through 2014

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today released an updated analysis of industry reserves. Based on 2013 annual statutory statements, Guy Carpenter has updated their analysis of the reserve cycle by examining accident year data for eleven lines of business. According to the analysis, workers compensation reserves appear to be improving, despite noted deterioration over the last year. Similarly, medical professional liability and commercial multi peril lines appear to be making tentative turns to show greater reserve release in accident year 2012 than expected. Conversely, other lines such as commercial auto liability continued to exhibit deterioration.

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