Posts Tagged ‘loss reserves’



December 4th, 2017

Critical Tool for Making Strategic Enterprise Risk Management Decisions

Posted at 2:43 PM ET

hettinger_cropped-smThomas Hettinger, Managing Director, Strategic Advisory

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  • There are indications that new A.M. Best Stochastic Based BCAR factor assignments may require more capital for companies entering a new line of business than for established writers growing in that line
  • Companies will be under extra pressure to choose growth strategies carefully because of potential capital pressures from A.M. Best and their potential for low returns due to the extended soft positions of many markets
  • With current capital positions evaluated, robust and current market insight is critical to accurately assess potential growth areas

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November 9th, 2017

For MPL, Market Softening Continues in 2016—Signs of Pressure Emerge

Posted at 4:00 AM ET

Steve Underdal, Managing Director; Greg Bliss, Managing Director; Matt Walter, Senior Vice President and Blake Berman, Senior Vice President

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Since 2010, the medical professional liability (MPL) industry has been navigating a soft market, with declining profitability, diminished investment gains and rising accident year operating ratios. Yet, reserve redundancies have kept calendar year combined ratios below 100 percent, allowing carriers to pay dividends to policyholders while maintaining favorable returns on equity. Recent trends in the MPL insurance industry, including more aggressive competition among carriers and a leveling off of frequency trends, are driving accident year combined ratios higher. Without the continued tailwind of favorable reserve development, current market rates could prove unsustainable, driving market hardening in the coming years.

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October 23rd, 2017

Industry in investor “sweet spot” – GC@BB Commentary

Posted at 3:15 AM ET

richard-hewitt-smiling-smRichard Hewitt, Head of Business Intelligence, EMEA

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  • Insurers bucking standard competitive cycle response
  • Current dynamics look set to continue for long term in spite of recent catastrophe losses
  • Investor appeal will remain strong

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October 16th, 2017

Guy Carpenter Reports US Insurance Market at a Crossroads but Opportunity Exists

Posted at 8:20 AM ET

303405_guy-carpenter_cover-2-sm1Guy Carpenter today released a study outlining a dynamic insurance industry facing a changing economy and pressure in once-stable lines, but with opportunity for those with management skill and understanding of risk.

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November 22nd, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Conclusion

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The obvious response to the issues emerging risks provide is to make sure reserves and capital position are more than robust enough for any eventuality - however remote - and then release them when the risks fail to materialize. But, there are many arguments against this as a practical strategy:

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November 21st, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks, Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The chart below attempts to illustrate the solvency calculation issue. Suppose the best estimate is 20 and the assessment from modeling is that the 1-in-200-year ultimate loss is 100. If all else stays the same and with the simplifying assumption that the yield curve stays flat, one can say that the sum of the 1-year solvency capital requirements (SCRs) approximated the difference between 100 and 20 (i.e. 80). Yet, because of the discounting, when in time the change in own funds is recognized, is important. The black line represents a linear recognition pattern so the 1-year SCRs are all equal with increments of 10. The blue line represents a Binary Fast recognition so the first year SCR is 80 and the remaining years’ SCR are zero. This means that the deterioration is recognized quickly. The red line again shows binary recognition but with a slow pattern as the movement is only occurring toward the end of the liabilities’ life. The two curves in light blue and light red represent less severe versions of the binary forms.

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November 17th, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: The Crystalization of Emerging Risks, Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

As discussed in the Executive Summary of this report, the term “crystalization of risk” refers to the timescale over which we realize that the risk is manifesting itself and how this view changes until ultimate understanding of quantum is reached and all liabilities are discharged. The “Reserving Risks” section in last year’s report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks looked at how information emerges in the presence of reserving cycles. The profit or loss in any particular financial year is made up of not only the profit or loss from the same accident year but also any recognized changes in the reserves on prior years.

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November 10th, 2016

Newest Versions of Patented Capital Modeling Tools Enhance Automation and Integration, Estimate Inflationary Risk, and Improve Run-Time: Guy Carpenter Introduces MetaRisk® Reserve™ 5 and MetaRisk® 9

Posted at 12:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 5 and MetaRisk® 9, the latest updates to its powerful suite of capital modeling tools built on more than 25 years of research and development.

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October 31st, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem, Part III: Quantifying Emerging Risks; Expert Judgement

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Data quality and availability should also be examined in depth. Because the risks are new, the data may not be captured correctly to power the model, which will lead to further uncertainty and may even preclude the use of a model altogether.

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October 23rd, 2016

US Property/Casualty Insurers Facing Increasingly Complex Operating Environment: Guy Carpenter Report

Posted at 6:00 AM ET

balancing-risk-and-growth-in-a-changing-market-smGuy Carpenter & Company today released a study which found that, in a challenging operating environment, only 40 of the top 100 US property/casualty (P&C) insurers reported an underwriting profit over the last five accident years.

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