Posts Tagged ‘loss reserves’
Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling solution delivers a faster and more flexible aggregation tool as well as an updated and unique predictive model for calculating Solvency II and ORSA issues.
Here we review GC Capital Ideas stories on the impact of insurance market cycles on insurers’ reserves.
Micah Woolstenhulme, Manager, ERM Services, Strategic Advisory
The Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research is an ongoing project sponsored by Guy Carpenter & Company and Oliver Wyman to assist property/casualty (P&C) companies with profiling enterprise risk. Articulating an individual company’s risk profile requires assessment of both absolute and relative financial uncertainties. The absolute uncertainties can ultimately be codified in an economic capital model, but robust review of relative historical performance invariably improves the codification of certain systemic risks.
Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas stories on how better analytics can support (re)insurers’ capital modeling and benchmarking.
Incorporating reserve value added (RVA) into reinsurance decision making for long-tail lines is a step in the right direction. However, it is not the full story, as the decision is still typically made in the context of a single accident year and usually for a single line of business in isolation. The cycle correlations clearly show that this is sub-optimal. We are encouraging our clients a step further along the sophistication and hence simplicity/complexity spectrum.
So what can be done to mitigate such cyclical effects? The first steps are to acknowledge them and to try to quantify their impact. The latter is more of a challenge than the former. Most internal capital models are not truly multiyear and arguably fail to adequately capture both the correlation between lines of business and in particular across accident years. Cycle (and recognition pattern) scenario testing is a good way to achieve this. This provides a neat and practical way to correlate between years and lines of business.