Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 5 and MetaRisk® 9, the latest updates to its powerful suite of capital modeling tools built on more than 25 years of research and development.
Loss reserves are arguably one of the most difficult risks to estimate and monitor. In fact, inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves have been the leading cause of property/casualty company impairments. According to A.M. Best, from 1969 to 2009 they triggered approximately 40 percent of all impairments - four times more than those emanating from natural catastrophes (1). There are many uncertainties in managing long-tailed, heavily legislated lines of business that can be triggered from emerging risks. Unforeseen inflation and anticipated legislative changes over a 10 to 30 year period present many demands. In order to prepare for emerging risk scenarios, future trends and related uncertainties need to be explicitly identified, contemplated and estimated.
Loss reserves are arguably one of the most difficult risks to estimate and monitor. In fact, inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves have been the leading cause of property/casualty company impairments. According to A.M. Best, from 1969 to 2009 they triggered approximately 40 percent of all impairments - four times more than those emanating from natural catastrophes (1). There are many uncertainties in managing long-tailed, heavily legislated lines of business that can be triggered from emerging risks. Unforeseen inflation and anticipated legislative changes over a 10 to 30 year period present many demands. In order to prepare for emerging risk scenarios, future trends and related uncertainties need to be explicitly identified, contemplated and estimated.
The modeling of emerging and casualty catastrophe risks remains challenging and the models continue to vary in their approach, level of development and industry acceptance. With the potential scenarios numerous, diverse and constantly changing, there is no single model or approach that could contemplate all of them. Furthermore, the various disaster scenarios with which carriers are being increasingly confronted needs to be prioritized and synthesized within their enterprise risk management framework. By their very definition, there may be limited data on hand on which to base any modeling. As a result, much of the industry continues to rely on multiple models and actuarial approaches that encompass model applications, probable maximum loss (PML) estimates, realistic disaster scenarios, experience and exposure ratings to create a broad set of scenarios and deterministic views.
Loss reserves are arguably one of the most difficult risks to estimate and monitor. In fact, inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves have been the leading cause of property/casualty company impairments. According to A.M. Best, from 1969 to 2009 they triggered approximately 40 percent of all impairments - four times more than those emanating from natural catastrophes (1). There are many uncertainties in managing long-tailed, heavily legislated lines of business that can be triggered from emerging risks. Unforeseen inflation and anticipated legislative changes over a 10 to 30 year period present many demands. In order to prepare for emerging risk scenarios, future trends and related uncertainties need to be explicitly identified, contemplated and estimated.
Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of MetaRisk® ReserveTM 4.5. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling solution delivers a faster and more flexible aggregation tool as well as an updated and unique predictive model for calculating Solvency II and ORSA issues.
Jay Woods and John S. Haldeman II, Co-chairmen of Guy Carpenter’s Mutual Company Specialty Practice
Mutual insurance companies of all sizes currently face challenging market conditions where success requires not only focused distribution and operational excellence, but also access to increasingly sophisticated analytics services and products. How these firms use their resources and advanced technology to respond to these issues will separate market outperformers from underperformers.
Guy Carpenter announced today the launch of MetaRisk Reserve 4.0TM. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling tool delivers improved statistical models and an enhanced user interface.
Michelle Harnick, Managing Director
Given that the leading cause of financial impairment of insurance companies is inadequate reserves and our view that a reserve “cycle” not only exists but may soon enter a period of adverse development, Guy Carpenter has spent considerable resources researching and building models to better understand and manage reserve risk.
Jessica Leong, Lead Casualty Specialty Actuary
What does the analysis mean for financial year 2014? Given the trends in the cycle, it is useful to break this question down into two sections:
