Posts Tagged ‘modeling’



June 22nd, 2010

Terrorism - Reinsurers Standing By, Part IV: Terrorism Analytics and Rating Agency Requirements

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

David Flandro, Head of Global Business Intelligence and Julian Alovisi, Senior Vice President
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To support the process of managing and underwriting the terrorism peril, (re)insurers
are increasingly using tools to analyze the risk. The dynamic nature of terrorism, and
the uncertainty in identifying the targets and frequency of attacks, requires a different
approach to manage the risk.

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June 17th, 2010

A National Flood Modeling Solution for Mainland France

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter has developed a state-of-the-art probabilistic flood model for mainland France in collaboration with hydrological and hydraulic modeling experts, JBA Consulting (JBA) and Intermap Technologies (Intermap), a global provider of high-quality 3D digital elevation models.

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June 17th, 2010

Une solution nationale de modélisation du risque d’inondation pour le territoire français

Posted at 12:59 AM ET

Guy Carpenter a développé un modèle probabiliste d’inondation pour le territoire français, en collaboration avec un bureau d’étude spécialisé dans la modélisation hydrologique et hydraulique, JBA Consulting (JBA), et un fournisseur de modèles numériques de terrain 3D haute résolution, Intermap Technologies (Intermap).

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April 28th, 2010

Top Stories on Solvency II: 2010 Year to Date

Posted at 9:00 AM ET

We bring together here links to all of GC Capital Ideas’ top stories covering Solvency II published in 2010.

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models:   The Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) published many consultation papers in 2009 focusing on Level 2 implementation measures for Solvency II. Consultation Paper (CP) 37 addressed the procedures for approval of internal models. It was followed by a final paper entitled “CEIOPS Advice for Level 2 Implementing Measures on Solvency II ‘The procedure to be followed for the approval of an internal model’”, published in October, 2009. This series reviews the implementation measures described in the final papers. Implementation measures for the use of partial internal models are briefly described in these two CEIOPS papers. 

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Solvency II In-Depth:   Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC sponsored this extended roundtable discussion that considered the progress made by (re)insurance as the Solvency II regime approaches. Held in London, it was attended by a number of UK and continental Europe industry leaders, including Guy Carpenter Managing Director and European Solutions Group Leader Eric Paire. We present the text of the roundtable discussion here as it appeared in Reinsurance Magazine.

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Corporate Decision Making Using Economic Capital Models:   In the 1980s many large general insurance companies investigated the use of dynamic financial analysis for corporate decision making. Only a small number of insurers and reinsurers, many of which were European, were able to develop dynamic financial models that were adequate for use in decision making. The primary obstacles to implementation were actuarial knowledge and computer technology. By the early 2000s, technology had improved, actuaries had developed techniques that allowed better quantification of insurance risks and dynamic financial analysis had evolved into enterprise risk management (ERM) supported by economic capital models. With these improvements, regulators began to develop solvency rules that create incentives for insurers to implement economic capital models. Although the current impetus for economic capital models is regulatory, the original purpose of enhanced strategic decision making is still valid and companies that use their economic capital models for ERM will be industry leaders.

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Higher Pressure on Cat Risk Under Solvency II:   In 2009, the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) issued details of its Level 2 implementation measures for Solvency II in three waves of consultation papers. The capital charge for the catastrophe risk sub-module (NLCAT), a key driver of capital for non-life carriers and reinsurers, is covered in various publications, primarily in “CEIOPS’ advice for Level 2 Implementation Measures on Solvency II: SCR standard formula - Article 111 Non-Life Underwriting Risk (former CP 48)” and Consultation Paper (CP) 71 - “SCR Standard Formula - Calibration of non-life underwriting risk”.

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Solvency II - Rationale for the Capital Requirement Increase for Underwriting Risk:   In its series of Consultation Papers on Level 2 implementation Measures for Solvency II, the Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) drafted, in Consultation Paper 71, a new proposal for the calibration of non-life underwriting risk. Additionally, CEIOPS published its final and third set of advice to the European Commission (EC) at the end of January 2010. The purpose of this briefing is to outline the rationale provided by CEIOPS behind the proposed increase in the SCR in respect of non-life underwriting risk.

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Solvency II: CEIOPS Third Set of Advice, An Overview:   The Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) published its final and third set of advice to the European Commission (EC) at the end of January.

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Solvency II - Gearing up for tougher Capital Requirements:   The development of Solvency II continues to be one of the most significant regulatory developments for the insurance industry applicable to both primary carriers and reinsurers. European insurers are starting to focus now on the risk-sensitive regime they will face in 2012, especially on the impact of the risk-based quantitative requirements for measuring financial positions and capital adequacy.

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April 15th, 2010

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models: Article Link Index

Posted at 12:00 PM ET

The Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) published many consultation papers in 2009 focusing on Level 2 implementation measures for Solvency II. Consultation Paper (CP) 37 addressed the procedures for approval of internal models. It was followed by a final paper entitled “CEIOPS Advice for Level 2 Implementing Measures on Solvency II ‘The procedure to be followed for the approval of an internal model’”, published in October, 2009.

This series reviews the implementation measures described in the final papers. Implementation measures for the use of partial internal models are briefly described in these two CEIOPS papers. A separate consultation paper, CP 65, proposed specific implementation measures for approval of a partial internal model when it is used in conjunction with the Solvency II Standard Formula. Those specific implementation measures will be covered in a future briefing.

  
Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models:  Part I: Introduction & Prerequisites for Approval >>

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models:  Part II: The Approval Process >>

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models:   Part III: The Approval Timeline, Approach for Group Internal Models & Conclusions >>

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models:  Part IV:  Appendices >> 

 

Click here to read additional material about Solvency II >> 

 

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April 12th, 2010

Reserve Uncertainty Interferes with Raising Capital

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

John Major, Senior Vice President, Instrat
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Guy Carpenter’s Firm-Value Risk Modeling (FVRM) approach, described in two previous GCCapitalIdeas.com articles, takes Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) a step beyond existing techniques by modeling the impact of risk on the shareholder value of the (re)insurer.  This puts the two dimensions of DFA - risk and reward - on the same scale: value. The output of an FVRM analysis is the M-curve, that relates the (re)insurer’s book value (surplus) to its market (shareholder) value. When the (re)insurer is in financial distress, with insufficient surplus to cover its risks adequately, its market value reflects the possibility of imminent liquidation, and will typically be not much greater than book value. On the other hand, when the (re)insurer holds a generous capital buffer, its market value reflects a going-concern potential to generate a stream of profits and dividends, and will include some franchise value above and beyond its book value. There is a point, however, where the (re)insurer has so much capital that adding more does nothing to enhance its franchise value.

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April 5th, 2010

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models: Part IV, Appendices

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director
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This series concludes its review of the implementation measures described by CEIOPS regarding procedures to be followed for the approval of an internal model. The appendices are presented today.

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April 2nd, 2010

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models: Part III, The Approval Timeline, Approach for Group Internal Models & Conclusions

Posted at 9:30 AM ET

Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director
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This series continues its review of the implementation measures described by CEIOPS regarding procedures to be followed for the approval of an internal model.

4.   Approval timeline

When the application package for internal model approval is submitted, the regulator will have six months to approve the model or reject it. This period starts on the date when the application is considered complete and will be suspended while the regulator waits for any additional information or for any minor adjustment. It will be stopped when the regulator asks for any major or new modification or when the company decides to withdraw its model from the approval process.

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March 31st, 2010

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models: Part II, The Process of Approval

Posted at 10:00 AM ET
Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director
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This series continues its review of the implementation measures described by CEIOPS regarding procedures to be followed for the approval of an internal model.

3. Approval process of internal models

The official form submitted by (re)insurers for approval of their internal model has many requirements:

  • A rationale for the use of the internal model
  • Results of a self-assessment of internal model readiness, mainly regarding Level 1 articles defining the use of internal models for Solvency II. This self assessment should cover a technical review of the internal model (scope, design, build, integrity and applications) and more particularly should define the following elements:

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March 30th, 2010

Solvency II - Approval of Internal Models: Part I, Introduction & Prerequisites for Approval

Posted at 10:00 AM ET

Eddy Vanbeneden, Managing Director
Contact

The Committee of European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Supervisors (CEIOPS) published many consultation papers in 2009 focusing on Level 2 implementation measures for Solvency II. Consultation Paper (CP) 37 addressed the procedures for approval of internal models. It was followed by a final paper entitled “CEIOPS Advice for Level 2 Implementing Measures on Solvency II ‘The procedure to be followed for the approval of an internal model’”, published in October, 2009.

Continue reading…