Posts Tagged ‘modeling’



August 23rd, 2016

Emerging Risks: Modeling Considerations Moving Forward: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

william-garland-smWill Garland, Managing Director

Contact

Technological progress is accelerating at a rapid pace and with it are the risks and opportunities that accompany those changes in many different segments of our economy:

Continue reading…

August 17th, 2016

GC Capital Ideas Top Stories: Cyber Risk, First Half, 2016

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review the most popular stories on the subject of cyber through the first half of 2016.

Continue reading…

August 3rd, 2016

Utilizing Data and Models to Understand Emerging Risks

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review GC Capital Ideas posts on how the accumulation of data and utilization of models will help (re)insurers understand the implications of emerging risks.

Continue reading…

July 7th, 2016

Changes to Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR)

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on developing changes to Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) and the potential impact of those changes on (re)insurers.

Continue reading…

June 20th, 2016

Potential Losses From the Kumamoto Earthquake: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling firm RMS estimated the economic loss for property risks to be between USD2.5 billion and USD3.5 billion (1). This estimate includes only residential, commercial, and industrial property and contents. Catastrophe modeling firm AIR estimated the insured loss to be between USD1.7 billion and USD2.9 billion for property risks (2). Both catastrophe modeling firms’ estimates exclude infrastructure, business interruption and contingent business interruption.

Continue reading…

June 7th, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem, Part III: Quantifying Emerging Risks; Expert Judgement

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Data quality and availability should also be examined in depth. Because the risks are new, the data may not be captured correctly to power the model, which will lead to further uncertainty and may even preclude the use of a model altogether.

Continue reading…

June 6th, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem, Part II: Quantifying Emerging Risks; Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Once the risks have been identified and ranked, the next step is how to quantify the likely impact on the financial results of the firm. The first and most obvious question is what available quantification techniques are available for each risk on the list. This will depend on the availability of relevant data and commercially produced models.

Continue reading…

June 2nd, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Sizing the Problem, Part I: Identifying Emerging Risks

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

There are three main questions to be tackled in sequence:

1. Which emerging risks potentially expose my company?

2. What means do I have to quantify those risks?

3. How are these risks likely to crystalize?

Continue reading…

May 31st, 2016

Reserving and Capital Setting: Background and Challenges

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Loss reserves are arguably one of the most difficult risks to estimate and monitor. In fact, inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves have been the leading cause of property/casualty company impairments. According to A.M. Best, from 1969 to 2009 they triggered approximately 40 percent of all impairments - four times more than those emanating from natural catastrophes (1). There are many uncertainties in managing long-tailed, heavily legislated lines of business that can be triggered from emerging risks. Unforeseen inflation and anticipated legislative changes over a 10 to 30 year period present many demands. In order to prepare for emerging risk scenarios, future trends and related uncertainties need to be explicitly identified, contemplated and estimated.

Continue reading…

May 23rd, 2016

Cyber Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

ross_christopher-smChristopher Ross, Managing Director

Contact

As businesses, both large and small, throughout all sectors of industry, become more and more reliant on technology to improve service efficiencies and functionalities, cyber risk has become one of the most pressing public topics addressed in corporate boardrooms and by governments across the globe. The corresponding awareness of a business’s susceptibility to a cyber-attack has grown along with a spate of high-profile attacks. Consequently, cyber risk is now an embedded feature of the global risk landscape, not only as a privacy/network liability, which is where much of the publicity has arisen, but also as a peril affecting traditional insurance lines. Therefore, preventative and post-event remediation are gaining importance as shareholders, regulators and rating agencies are increasingly focused on enterprise risk management activities for cyber risks.

Continue reading…