Posts Tagged ‘modeling’



April 16th, 2015

Guy Carpenter Launches New G-CAT® Canada Flood Model

Posted at 6:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today launched its new G-CAT® Canada Flood Model. In creating the first ever probabilistic flood model for Canada, Guy Carpenter has enabled insurers to assess their exposure to flood, Canada’s most frequently occurring natural hazard.

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March 19th, 2015

Modeling Beyond Property CAT Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we review recent GC Capital Idea stories on catastrophe models that focus on exposures beyond catastrophe property risk:

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March 16th, 2015

Guy Carpenter Launches its Innovative Casualty Catastrophe Model: GC ForCas℠

Posted at 5:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the launch of GC ForCas℠, its new data-driven casualty catastrophe model.

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February 17th, 2015

Guy Carpenter Appoints Matthew Eagle as Head of International Analytics

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today announced the appointment of Matthew Eagle as Managing Director and Head of International Analytics for Guy Carpenter. 

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February 5th, 2015

GC Videocast - Overview of the Holistic Balance Sheet Management Framework and Application

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Eric Paire, Head of Strategic Advisory EMEA, Guy Carpenter, presented the sixth part of the Holistic Balance Sheet Management series describing the “multi-layer” approach that Guy Carpenter and Mercer will adopt when working exclusively with insurance clients to holistically manage capital and strengthen balance sheets. The approach includes an extensive evaluation of the investment and reinsurance portfolios to understand client needs, an assessment of the rationale for freeing-up and/or moving capital and a consideration of  modeling aspects such as the Solvency II standard formula, internal models or rating agency models.

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December 22nd, 2014

Understanding Emerging Risks: Imperative for the Future

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The downside focus of risk measures highlights what could be a key problem with the debate around emerging risks - when people think about risk they only consider the downside. Cars, penicillin, fossil fuels, the internet - all of these were once emerging risks, and they have caused global destruction through car accidents, antibiotic resistance, climate change, and now, possibly through cyber risk. But they have also brought far better travel, longer and much healthier lives for almost everyone, affordable electricity for people in their own homes, and an explosion of information on a scale never seen before available freely at the click of a button.

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December 18th, 2014

Cycle Mitigation: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Incorporating reserve value added (RVA) into reinsurance decision making for long-tail lines is a step in the right direction. However, it is not the full story, as the decision is still typically made in the context of a single accident year and usually for a single line of business in isolation. The cycle correlations clearly show that this is sub-optimal. We are encouraging our clients a step further along the sophistication and hence simplicity/complexity spectrum.

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December 17th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Launches MetaRisk® Reserve™ 4.0

Posted at 5:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter announced today the launch of MetaRisk Reserve 4.0TM. The latest version of this powerful reserve risk modeling tool delivers improved statistical models and an enhanced user interface.

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December 4th, 2014

Casualty Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Casualty catastrophe occurrences have become increasingly common over the past decade. The recent 2008 financial catastrophe is the easiest to cite, due to its sheer size and the fact that it continues to unfold even today. But, there have been many others. The collapse of the “dotcom economy” led to scandals around initial public offering laddering and equity analyst conflicts of interest. Accounting firms were not alone in suffering financial loss related to such debacles as Enron, WorldCom, Tyco and Adelphia. While insured losses did not reach those of property catastrophes, economic damages were profound. Enron’s loss of USD66 billion in market capitalization alone - not including the economic damage caused to other companies - was more than double that of Hurricane Ike (approximately USD30 billion). The financial catastrophe is estimated to have caused economic damage of above USD1 trillion, with more likely to follow. When considered in the context of the Deepwater Horizon industrial accident, the casualty catastrophe that unraveled from the largest US offshore energy event over the past 40 years was by no means remote. Beyond the initial property loss of the actual drilling rig, liability risk in paying claims continues to extend and ripple throughout the supply chain involved as well as the environmental impact to numerous coastal and commercial businesses. Asbestos litigation, perhaps the longest casualty catastrophe on record, has paid out over USD70 billion and by some accounts may be entering its third wave. Therefore, asbestos is an emerging crystalizing risk that needs to be continuously monitored, measured and modeled for those who continue to be exposed to it.

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November 25th, 2014

Emerging Risk: Commercial Terrorism Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers and other market participants perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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