Modeling methodologies for terrorism have been continually refined and updated since the three major modeling companies - AIR Worldwide (AIR), EQECAT and Risk Management Solutions (RMS) - released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from a terrorist attack continues to pose major challenges for (re)insurers and alternative capacity providers. There are three main techniques to model terrorism risk:
Posts Tagged ‘modeling’
Some may question why terrorism risk has a place in a document dedicated to emerging risk. Terrorism as a form of violence to promote cause or promote change is one of the original human conflicts. The wind blows and the earth shakes much the same way now as it has for hundreds, thousands of years. However, terrorism as a risk and a peril has evolved over the years and is a current concern in all parts of the world. Given the growing population, regional conflicts producing a broad list of potential instigators, the expansive reach of social media for extremists spreading their messages and recruiting and the diversity of possible attack modes to cause human and economic loss, terrorism does qualify as an emerging risk. With this contemporaneity in mind, we will discuss terrorism as an example of an emerging risk that is being aggravated by changes in geo-political events and in the continued notable challenges in modeling its ever changing underlying complexities.
Cyber-attacks and Terrorism Revealed as Top Emerging Risks for 2015, According to Annual Guy Carpenter Survey
Cyber-attacks and terrorism are ranked among the top emerging risks concerning the (re)insurance industry in the year ahead, according to a survey released today by Guy Carpenter. According to the findings, new products, expansion into new geographic markets and access to new distribution channels will be the primary drivers of profitable growth in 2015.
Mutual insurance companies of all sizes currently face challenging market conditions where success requires not only focused distribution and operational excellence, but also access to increasingly sophisticated analytics services and products. How these firms use their resources and advanced technology to respond to these issues will separate market outperformers from underperformers.
Guy Carpenter and Oliver Wyman, both wholly owned subsidiaries of Marsh & McLennan Companies, released the 2014 Insurance Risk Benchmarks Research: Annual Statistical Review, the first in a two-part series detailing research executed in collaboration with Columbia University. This, the fourth annual report, provides detailed analysis and insight on the property/casualty industry to help insurers strategically evaluate and benchmark inputs to economic capital models.
Matthew Day, Head of Rating Agency Advisory, Strategic Advisory EMEA - Capital Optimization
What drives (re)insurer capital planning? Maybe it is risk appetite, internal dynamic capital modeling or actuarial analysis. Or perhaps it is external pressure from regulators, rating agencies or investors. In reality, it is probably a combination of all of these factors. Faced with conflicting views of what constitutes both the available capital and the assessment of the amount required relative to the risk, optimizing (re)insurer capital adequacy is likely to be a key challenge confronting a company. Rarely will the company be able to fully satisfy all the demands. Developing a management framework to evaluate, analyze and compare these divergent needs is therefore essential to extract the maximum efficiency from (re)insurer corporate capital structure.
A cursory reading of just a few of the publications on the topic of emerging risks quickly resembles a crash-course in risk aversion therapy. We have been subjected to a bewildering and ever lengthening series of lists of emerging risks. Swiss Re recently identified 26 such risks (1), Hannover Re has an ongoing list of 14 while the World Economic Forum in its Global Risks 2014 (2) lists 31 global risks (3).
(Re)insurers today face a degree of change and uncertainty that appears to be evolving at an ever quickening pace. Guy Carpenter has published a report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks, highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber-attacks, terrorism and new compensation structures for long-term bodily injuries. The report seeks to identify and categorize these risks that are now confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.