Posts Tagged ‘modeling’



October 19th, 2014

Capital – Multiple Issues Require Multifaceted Solutions

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

matt-day-headshot-smMatthew Day, Head of Rating Agency Advisory, Strategic Advisory EMEA - Capital Optimization

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What drives (re)insurer capital planning? Maybe it is risk appetite, internal dynamic capital modeling or actuarial analysis. Or perhaps it is external pressure from regulators, rating agencies or investors. In reality, it is probably a combination of all of these factors. Faced with conflicting views of what constitutes both the available capital and the assessment of the amount required relative to the risk, optimizing (re)insurer capital adequacy is likely to be a key challenge confronting a company. Rarely will the company be able to fully satisfy all the demands. Developing a management framework to evaluate, analyze and compare these divergent needs is therefore essential to extract the maximum efficiency from (re)insurer corporate capital structure.

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October 15th, 2014

The Categories Of Emerging Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

For purposes of this analysis we have developed three categories of emerging risk:

  • Technological
  • Crystalizing
  • Aggravating

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October 14th, 2014

Emerging Risk Challenges And Opportunities

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

A cursory reading of just a few of the publications on the topic of emerging risks quickly resembles a crash-course in risk aversion therapy. We have been subjected to a bewildering and ever lengthening series of lists of emerging risks. Swiss Re recently identified 26 such risks (1), Hannover Re has an ongoing list of 14 while the World Economic Forum in its Global Risks 2014 (2) lists 31 global risks (3).

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October 13th, 2014

Understanding Emerging Risks: Executive Summary

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

(Re)insurers today face a degree of change and uncertainty that appears to be evolving at an ever quickening pace. Guy Carpenter has published a report, Ahead of the Curve: Understanding Emerging Risks, highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber-attacks, terrorism and new compensation structures for long-term bodily injuries. The report seeks to identify and categorize these risks that are now confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.

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September 25th, 2014

RMS Global Probabilistic Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

RMS released an updated Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) in July 2012, version 3.1.2. The new model revised the annual frequency of a terrorist attack on US soil. No updates were made to geographies outside the United States.

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September 24th, 2014

AIR US Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

AIR implemented significant model updates in version 13 of CLASIC/2TM, released in 2011. The updates impacted hazard components such as the target and landmark database, event frequency estimates and exposure and policy conditions.

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September 23rd, 2014

Commercial Terrorism Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers and other market participants perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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September 22nd, 2014

Terrorism Solutions: Modeling

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

To support the process of managing and underwriting the terrorism peril, (re)insurers utilize data management and modeling tools to analyze the risk. The dynamic nature of terrorism and the uncertainty in identifying targets and the frequency of attacks requires a specialized approach to manage the risk.

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September 14th, 2014

Cyber, Terrorism and New Compensation Structures Highlighted as Critical Emerging Risks

Posted at 10:30 PM ET

2014-sep-emerging-risk-cover-image-crGuy Carpenter today published a new report highlighting emerging risks facing the (re)insurance sector, including cyber-attacks, terrorism and new compensation structures for long-term bodily injuries. The report seeks to identify and categorize these risks that are now confronting the sector, as well as analyze their implications on businesses and (re)insurers.

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September 13th, 2014

GC Videocast - Rendez-Vous Press Briefing 2014 (James Nash) Asia Pacific Sees Increased Understanding and Quantification of Catastrophe Risk

Posted at 2:17 PM ET

2014-mc-nash-photoJames Nash, CEO of Asia-Pacific Operations, Guy Carpenter, considered the potential that existed in Asia-Pacific. “It is a blend of mature and emerging markets,” he said, “full of opportunities and challenges, and it requires all market participants to have a broad and diverse set of skills and offerings.” He continued: “As regulation develops across the region, and insurers are open to a wider array of modelling options by vendor and peril, we are seeing an increase in the understanding and quantification of the catastrophe risk in the region. This in turn leads to more transparent risk and capital management decision-making,” but, “at this stage the majority of alternative capital activity remains in the mature markets of Japan and Australia.”

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