Posts Tagged ‘modeling’



April 2nd, 2019

Are You at Risk? Managing Affirmative and Silent Cyber Risk Accumulation

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Skyline of Dubai at nightThe script of the global cyber insurance market is still mainly being written in the United States. Approximately 85 percent of global cyber insurance premiums of between USD 2.5 and 3.5 billion are generated in the United States. The take-up rate for this line of business in Asia is still relatively low, but the Japan market has been experiencing steady growth in the last 24 months.

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March 25th, 2019

A Risk Overview of Wildfire

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Today, the frequency and severity of wildfires are garnering greater attention-not only from the media, but also from (re)insurers, catastrophe modelers, mitigation experts and other invested parties.

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March 13th, 2019

GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils.

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March 7th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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February 28th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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February 26th, 2019

GC Securities Acts as Sole Structurer and Placement Agent for First Cat Bond to Transfer Standalone Terrorism Risk to the ILS Market

Posted at 1:23 PM ET

GC Securities*, a division of MMC Securities LLC, a US registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/NFA/SIPC, today announced the placement of GBP 75,000,000 Series 2019 Principal At-Risk Variable Rate Notes issued through Baltic PCC Limited, a protected cell company domiciled in the United Kingdom, on behalf of Pool Re.

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February 21st, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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February 14th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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January 24th, 2019

New Approaches to Understanding and Modeling Cyber Risk

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

On October 21, 2016, a distributed denial of service attack (DDoS) rendered a large number of the world’s most popular websites inaccessible to many users, including Twitter, Amazon, Netflix, and GitHub.

The internet outage conscripted vulnerable Internet of Things (IoT) devices such as routers, DVRs and CCTV cameras to overwhelm DNS provider Dyn, effectively hampering internet users’ ability to access websites across Europe and North America. The attack was carried out using an IoT botnet called Mirai, which works by continuously scanning for IoT devices with factory default user names and passwords. Continue reading…