Posts Tagged ‘Models’



September 25th, 2014

RMS Global Probabilistic Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

RMS released an updated Probabilistic Terrorism Model (PTM) in July 2012, version 3.1.2. The new model revised the annual frequency of a terrorist attack on US soil. No updates were made to geographies outside the United States.

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September 24th, 2014

AIR US Terrorism Model

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

AIR implemented significant model updates in version 13 of CLASIC/2TM, released in 2011. The updates impacted hazard components such as the target and landmark database, event frequency estimates and exposure and policy conditions.

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September 23rd, 2014

Commercial Terrorism Models

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The catastrophe modeling companies have regularly updated their terrorism models over the years to reflect the changing threat landscape and help (re)insurers and other market participants perform robust terrorism risk assessments. Such updated products from RMS and AIR include:

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September 22nd, 2014

Terrorism Solutions: Modeling

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

To support the process of managing and underwriting the terrorism peril, (re)insurers utilize data management and modeling tools to analyze the risk. The dynamic nature of terrorism and the uncertainty in identifying targets and the frequency of attacks requires a specialized approach to manage the risk.

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September 9th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Series Details Impact Of 2004 & 2005 Hurricane Seasons

Posted at 5:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today released Part One of a two-part series report detailing a ten-year retrospective on the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons - two landmark years that were not only significant for their weather events, but for their lasting effects on the (re)insurance industry. The report examines the meteorological conditions that contributed to the weather activity characterizing both hurricane seasons, as well as the impact on underwriting and claims adjusting practices, cat modeling, and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF).

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September 4th, 2014

US Terror Risk Sector Capacity

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Despite this increase in terrorism market capacity, it is not sufficient on its own to provide comprehensive terrorism cover in the United States. According to a Guy Carpenter (re)insurance capital study, dedicated global capital to the US (re)insurance market is estimated to be approximately USD700 billion (1). Catastrophe models that produce nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological (NBCR) event scenarios estimate losses from a large nuclear attack in Manhattan (at greater than USD900 billion) would likely exceed the total amount of capital in the US market (see figure below). The study consequently concludes that the (re)insurance sector does not have the capital necessary to withstand such a scenario. Some form of federal backstop is therefore needed if the private (re)insurance market is to continue to provide capacity to higher risk areas.

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September 3rd, 2014

Guy Carpenter Launches Probabilistic European Hail Model

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter launched its new leading-edge probabilistic hail model for Europe. The G-CAT® Hail Model features a unique approach to producing historic hail tracks using a lightning detection system developed for Guy Carpenter by atmospheric research firm nowcast GmbH. 

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August 25th, 2014

European Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The 15th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering will take place in Istanbul, Turkey, on August 24 - 29, 2014. This very important event is held every four years and brings together the most renowned experts on seismology, vulnerability, risk and structural and geotechnical engineering. The most recent advances in the field of hazard and risk assessment, loss estimation and seismic design will also be presented and discussed.

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July 22nd, 2014

2014 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Predictions

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

A recent study shows it is possible to use a regional climate model to more accurately predict the number of tropical cyclone formations compared to predictions based solely on a global climate model. 

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July 10th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part II: El Niño Phenomenon

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-waller1James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist

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The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).

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