Posts Tagged ‘Models’
James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist
The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).
Guy Carpenter today released its briefing on the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The report examines the factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season and emphasizes that while predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and preparation is key for property owners and the (re)insurance industry alike.
Victoria Jenkins, Managing Director
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is acknowledged to be a key growth area for (re)insurance. Insurance penetration is rapidly increasing but still has some way to go to reach comparable levels with Europe or the United States. In the period 2003-2012, most countries in the region achieved triple-digit percentage increases in premium volume, with some exceeding 600 percent growth (source: Swiss Re Sigma).
Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.
Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable? It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.
Guillermo Franco, Head of Catastrophe Risk Research - EMEA
It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.
Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk® Reserve™ Awarded Patent as Breakthrough Innovation in Reserve Risk Modeling
Guy Carpenter & Company has been awarded a patent for MetaRisk Reserve by the U.S. Patent Office for creating a unique and easy-to-use predictive model for the analysis of reserve risk.
Flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.