Posts Tagged ‘Models’



March 13th, 2019

GC Capital Ideas Covers Modeling Developments

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

GC Capital Ideas presents a review of our recent stories covering modeling for various perils.

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March 7th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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February 28th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

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Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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February 21st, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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February 14th, 2019

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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October 31st, 2018

Flood Risk Challenges in Asia - GC@SIRC Commentary

Posted at 9:00 PM ET

mark-weatherhead-finalMark Weatherhead, Head of Model Development, International

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  • Asia is particularly prone to flooding because of three factors: hydrology, population density and mitigation rate
  • To improve loss assessments, hazard data should be combined with other data types, such as probabilistic event sets and defense information
  • Guy Carpenter has made a significant investment in data and technology to help our clients improve their understanding of flood risk

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October 23rd, 2018

Data and Analytics Support Innovations in Flood Risk Management - GC@BB Commentary

Posted at 9:00 AM ET

cleary_liz_photo21 Elizabeth Cleary, Managing Director

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  • Increased computing power is fueling innovative solutions for flood underwriting
  • Insurers are using technology to communicate a homeowner’s flood risk with mobile apps
  • Guy Carpenter works extensively with most commercial vendor flood models

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September 11th, 2018

Data and Analytics Support Innovations in Flood Risk Management - GC@MC Commentary

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

cleary_liz_photo21 Elizabeth Cleary, Managing Director

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  • Increased computing power is fueling innovative solutions for flood underwriting
  • Insurers are using technology to communicate a homeowner’s flood risk with mobile apps
  • Guy Carpenter works extensively with most commercial vendor flood models Continue reading…
May 29th, 2018

Terrorism Risk Modeling Poses Challenges

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

terrorism-rep-connections-banner-2Terrorism risk modeling methods have been continually updated since leading modeling companies AIR Worldwide and Risk Management Solutions released their first terrorism models in 2002. Quantifying the economic, insured and human losses from terrorist attacks poses major challenges for insurers, reinsurers and alternative capacity providers.

Marsh’s 2018 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report, produced with support from Guy Carpenter, explores the state of the terrorism insurance marketplace, presenting data on purchasing and pricing trends.

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