Posts Tagged ‘Models’



April 26th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part IV

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Valuation Assumptions

There is no database of agreed property, contents or business interruption valuations among vendors or insurers.  Any user’s particular valuation may come from databases of property prices, or rebuild values from claims adjusters and building surveyors. If the model’s assumed valuations are under- or over-estimated, then the damage function may over- or under-compensate in order to balance to historical industry event losses during the model-building process. Consequently, it is important that the user adjust the damage module to reconcile these differences.

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April 25th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part III

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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If resources permit, an insurer may carry out additional, micro level model suitability analyses - including a review of model hazards and vulnerabilities using the latest scientific literature and engineering studies. Guy Carpenter’s Model Suitability Analysis (MSA)® framework is designed to guide users through such an analysis.

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April 24th, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Model Suitability Analysis

There is a repertoire of tests, at both the macro and micro levels, to evaluate the merits of a CAT model.  Regardless of resources, insurers should analyze how each test’s result informs their view of risk. Here we review the macro level.

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April 23rd, 2018

Building for Resilience: How to Avoid a Catastrophe Model Failure: Part I

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Imelda Powers, Global Chief Catastrophe Modeler

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Since commercial catastrophe (CAT) models were first introduced in the 1980s, they have evolved as new scientific discoveries and claims insights emerged. Despite the sophisticated nature of each new generation of CAT models, occasionally a model misses a significant loss driver for a particular peril. This occurs when a previously hidden attribute reveals itself through unprecedented intensity. Lessons from such surprises stimulate model improvements as our understanding of the physics of the peril and its damage potential, increase. Through this process, models mature over time.

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February 1st, 2018

Cyber Risk in an Interconnected World; Part II

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

platt-jeremyJeremy S. Platt, Managing Director and U.S. Cyber Specialty Practice Leader

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The new year will also offer cyber carriers the chance to seize opportunities created by innovative technologies to adapt lessons from other lines of business. Today, risk management of a cyber event reflects characteristics of pandemic containment. The medical community has developed clearly defined metrics and rigorous procedures for public and private stakeholders to reduce the impact of an outbreak. Similarly, the date of occurrence, duration, common source connection, frequency and severity are significant factors in adjusting cyber (re)insurance claims, and often depend on some level of collaboration with public entities. But as discussed above, a common currency to analyze and discuss cyber exposures is still being perfected. Quantification of cyber losses is also complicated by “silent” all-risk policies where cyber is the peril, but no cyber exclusions exist.

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January 15th, 2018

Interoperability: A Case For Open Source

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

peter-hearn-2-smPeter Hearn, President & CEO

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  • Industry-wide call for increased transparency in cat modeling
  • Interoperability facilitates collaboration of multiple data sources
  • Open source models allow insurers to develop own view of risk

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October 16th, 2017

Flood Insurance: The 2018 Market Opportunity - GC@PCI Commentary

Posted at 8:30 AM ET

hayes_j_bio-sm1kulik-john-sm3Jonathan Hayes, Managing Director and John Kulik, Senior Vice President

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  • The U.S. insurance industry is actively seeking new opportunities for growth in a challenging market by identifying untapped customer needs. The potential flood market is over five times the size of the most often mentioned new market, cyber insurance
  • Greater access to flood data and loss results and more reliable exposure modeling are enhancing the flood (re)insurance marketplace
  • Several developments are helping carriers understand and monitor aggregation

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October 10th, 2017

Industry Must Act to Avoid a “Kodak Moment”

Posted at 4:00 AM ET

In his first speech as Lloyd’s new chairman, Bruce Carnegie-Brown said the insurance industry must do more to change and innovate or run the risk of being disrupted by external players.

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September 25th, 2017

Guy Carpenter Advances Capital Modeling Capabilities with MetaRisk® 10

Posted at 3:30 AM ET

Guy Carpenter & Company today announced the launch of MetaRisk® 10, which significantly enhances automation, adds support for A.M. Best’s new stochastic-based Best’s Capital Adequacy Ratio (BCAR) and enables modeling of “hours clauses.”

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