Posts Tagged ‘Models’



August 25th, 2014

European Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The 15th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering will take place in Istanbul, Turkey, on August 24 - 29, 2014. This very important event is held every four years and brings together the most renowned experts on seismology, vulnerability, risk and structural and geotechnical engineering. The most recent advances in the field of hazard and risk assessment, loss estimation and seismic design will also be presented and discussed.

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July 22nd, 2014

2014 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Predictions

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

A recent study shows it is possible to use a regional climate model to more accurately predict the number of tropical cyclone formations compared to predictions based solely on a global climate model. 

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July 10th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part II: El Niño Phenomenon

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-waller1James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist

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The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).

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July 9th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part I: One Never Truly Knows

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

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The 2004 hurricane season was a weak El Niño year, which brought five landfalling U.S. hurricanes, four of which affected Florida.

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June 24th, 2014

Uncertainty Surrounding the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today released its briefing on the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The report examines the factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season and emphasizes that while predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and preparation is key for property owners and the (re)insurance industry alike. 

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June 10th, 2014

Enhancing Catastrophe Modeling In the Middle East and North Africa

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

victoria-jenkinsVictoria Jenkins, Managing Director

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is acknowledged to be a key growth area for (re)insurance. Insurance penetration is rapidly increasing but still has some way to go to reach comparable levels with Europe or the United States. In the period 2003-2012, most countries in the region achieved triple-digit percentage increases in premium volume, with some exceeding 600 percent growth (source: Swiss Re Sigma).

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December 17th, 2013

Models on GC Capital Ideas

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we highlight recent stories that have appeared on GC Capital Ideas on models and modeling

Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.

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Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models:  How Much of it is Reasonable?  It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.

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October 23rd, 2013

Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

snyder_jack_bioJack Snyder, Managing Director

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A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.

 

 

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October 21st, 2013

Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models: How Much of it is Reasonable?

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

franco_guillermo_bioGuillermo Franco, Head of Catastrophe Risk Research - EMEA

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It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.

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June 11th, 2013

Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk® Reserve™ Awarded Patent as Breakthrough Innovation in Reserve Risk Modeling

Posted at 11:00 PM ET

Guy Carpenter & Company has been awarded a patent for MetaRisk Reserve by the U.S. Patent Office for creating a unique and easy-to-use predictive model for the analysis of reserve risk.

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