Posts Tagged ‘Models’



September 9th, 2014

Guy Carpenter Series Details Impact Of 2004 & 2005 Hurricane Seasons

Posted at 5:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter today released Part One of a two-part series report detailing a ten-year retrospective on the 2004 and 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons - two landmark years that were not only significant for their weather events, but for their lasting effects on the (re)insurance industry. The report examines the meteorological conditions that contributed to the weather activity characterizing both hurricane seasons, as well as the impact on underwriting and claims adjusting practices, cat modeling, and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF).

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September 4th, 2014

US Terror Risk Sector Capacity

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Despite this increase in terrorism market capacity, it is not sufficient on its own to provide comprehensive terrorism cover in the United States. According to a Guy Carpenter (re)insurance capital study, dedicated global capital to the US (re)insurance market is estimated to be approximately USD700 billion (1). Catastrophe models that produce nuclear, biological, chemical or radiological (NBCR) event scenarios estimate losses from a large nuclear attack in Manhattan (at greater than USD900 billion) would likely exceed the total amount of capital in the US market (see figure below). The study consequently concludes that the (re)insurance sector does not have the capital necessary to withstand such a scenario. Some form of federal backstop is therefore needed if the private (re)insurance market is to continue to provide capacity to higher risk areas.

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September 3rd, 2014

Guy Carpenter Launches Probabilistic European Hail Model

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter launched its new leading-edge probabilistic hail model for Europe. The G-CAT® Hail Model features a unique approach to producing historic hail tracks using a lightning detection system developed for Guy Carpenter by atmospheric research firm nowcast GmbH. 

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August 25th, 2014

European Conference on Earthquake Engineering

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

The 15th European Conference on Earthquake Engineering will take place in Istanbul, Turkey, on August 24 - 29, 2014. This very important event is held every four years and brings together the most renowned experts on seismology, vulnerability, risk and structural and geotechnical engineering. The most recent advances in the field of hazard and risk assessment, loss estimation and seismic design will also be presented and discussed.

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July 22nd, 2014

2014 Tropical Cyclone Landfall Predictions

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

A recent study shows it is possible to use a regional climate model to more accurately predict the number of tropical cyclone formations compared to predictions based solely on a global climate model. 

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July 10th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part II: El Niño Phenomenon

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-waller1James Waller, Ph.D., Research Meteorologist

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The El Niño phenomenon is signaled by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical East Pacific. The large-scale circulations associated with El Niño enhance wind shear (changing wind speed with height) in the tropical Atlantic. The enhanced wind shear disrupts tropical cyclone formation, generally associated with fewer tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. The suppressing effects of El Niño are found to be strongest in the deep tropics (Kossin et al., 2010).

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July 9th, 2014

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season Part I: One Never Truly Knows

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

james-wallerJames Waller, Ph.D, Research Meteorologist

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The 2004 hurricane season was a weak El Niño year, which brought five landfalling U.S. hurricanes, four of which affected Florida.

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June 24th, 2014

Uncertainty Surrounding the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted at 11:30 PM ET

Guy Carpenter today released its briefing on the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The report examines the factors that influence the severity of any given hurricane season and emphasizes that while predictive and historical models can provide guidance, landfalls are always a real possibility and preparation is key for property owners and the (re)insurance industry alike. 

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June 10th, 2014

Enhancing Catastrophe Modeling In the Middle East and North Africa

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

victoria-jenkinsVictoria Jenkins, Managing Director

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The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is acknowledged to be a key growth area for (re)insurance. Insurance penetration is rapidly increasing but still has some way to go to reach comparable levels with Europe or the United States. In the period 2003-2012, most countries in the region achieved triple-digit percentage increases in premium volume, with some exceeding 600 percent growth (source: Swiss Re Sigma).

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December 17th, 2013

Models on GC Capital Ideas

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Here we highlight recent stories that have appeared on GC Capital Ideas on models and modeling

Guy Carpenter Insights on A.M. Best’s 2013 Updates: A.M. Best has recently issued several insurance ratings updates. Guy Carpenter has reviewed those updates and has key insights to help companies better understand their potential impact.

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Uncertainty in Catastrophe Models:  How Much of it is Reasonable?  It seems reasonable to expect a degree of uncertainty in catastrophe model results. It is not uncommon, however, for models to produce results that differ by several factors. In order to assess how much of this uncertainty is epistemic, due to our incomplete knowledge of the physical phenomena involved, this existing uncertainty needs to be quantified.

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