A severe convective storm affected large parts of New South Wales, including Sydney, the Central Coast and Wollongong from 4:00 to 7:00 pm on December 20, 2018. The storm generated large hail, damaging winds and flash flooding in many areas of the state. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), there were ground reports of hail of 8 cm diameter in Berowra Heights in Sydney’s north and similar size hail in Casula and Liverpool in the city’s southwest.  The Nattai National Park west of Picton also experienced large hail. Initial damage reports indicated that the suburbs of Berowra Heights, Hornsby, Liverpool, Gosford and Lithgow were the most severely affected. Given that the event occurred during the Christmas holidays, many residents and businesses have not fully assessed the extent of damages; therefore, loss estimates are expected to increase in the next few weeks.

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Here is a look back at the CAT-i articles from October 1 through December.

Mw 7.0 Earthquake – Near Anchorage, Alaska: The magnitude (Mw) 7.0 earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska, on November 30 occurred at a depth of 44.1 km as the result of a slip on an intraslab fault within the subducting Pacific slab. According to the United States Geological Survey, the faulting involved a moderately dipping fault striking north-south, below the shallower thrust-faulting interface between the Pacific Plate and the North America Plate. A tsunami warning was issued but later lifted by the U.S. National Weather Service. Damage was reported to buildings, including interior damage and some cracked foundations with some building collapses.

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California Wildfire Activity: November Wildfire activity in California rendered especially severe impacts in Northern and Southern California, including areas of Butte, Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.  Rates of extreme fire spread were enabled by especially dry, windy conditions on November 8 and the days following. Aggressive firefighting efforts allowed containment efforts to progress despite adverse conditions. Camp, Woolsey and Hill Fires burned an estimated 20,297 structures since November 8, including at least 13,972 residential structures from the Camp Fire alone, according to Cal Fire statistics (as reported in the CAT-i on November 29). These fires have also claimed at least 91 lives. Media reports indicate estimated insured losses for the Camp and Woolsey Fires of around USD 9-13 billion as reported by RMS.

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Hurricane Michael: Hurricane Michael, the strongest hurricane to affect the Continental U.S. since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, made landfall on October 10 as a high-end Category-4 hurricane on the Florida Panhandle, with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. The storm rendered severe to complete damage to areas from Panama City to Port Saint Joe, with especially severe damage in Mexico Beach due to severe wind and storm surge. Wind caused roof and wall collapse, especially for cinderblock construction and even commercial properties. Some coastal areas of Mexico Beach were scoured to the foundation by storm surge and wave battering. At least 12 fatalities were reported by media by the time the CAT-i was released.

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Super Typhoon Trami: In the West-Pacific Basin, Typhoon Trami made landfall in the city of Tanabe, Japan (Wakayama prefecture) on 30 September, according to media reports. Before reaching Honshu, the typhoon had rendered considerable impacts while making close approach to Okinawa, Kyūshū and Shikoku Islands. Trami brought significant flood impacts as a result of heavy rainfall and storm surge, as well as variable property damage due to wind. Significant power outages and transportation disruption were reported by media. Over 4.3 million people were given evacuation orders or advisories. Media reports indicated at least four fatalities and 120 injured.

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A magnitude (Mw) 7.0 earthquake was reported near Anchorage, Alaska around 17:29 UTC on November 30 (8:29 local time), according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The epicenter was located at a depth of 44.1 km and about 12.9 km (8.0 miles) north of Anchorage, Alaska. A tsunami warning was issued but later lifted by the U.S. National Weather Service. Initial media reports indicate that the event rendered considerable damage to infrastructure including roads, power and water, along with significant transportation disruption. Damage has been reported to buildings including interior damage and some cracked foundations with some building collapses. Initial media reports indicate no fatalities or injuries, although survey efforts are still ongoing.

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Recent wildfire activity has rendered especially severe impacts to areas of California, including areas of Butte, Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. Rates of extreme fire spread were enabled by especially dry, windy conditions on November 8 and the days following. Aggressive firefighting efforts allowed containment efforts to progress despite adverse conditions over the following week. Periods of heavy rainfall have recently allowed firefighting crews to bring the last of the fires to 100 percent containment over the last week. The Camp, Woolsey and Hill Fires have burned an estimated 20,297 structures since November 8, including at least 13,972 residential structures from the Camp Fire alone, according to Cal Fire statistics. These fires have also claimed at least 91 lives. Recent heavy rainfall has amplified the threat for flash-flooding and debris flows in and around the burn scars. Media reports indicate estimated insured losses for the Camp and Woolsey Fires of around USD 9-13 billion as reported by RMS. It will take some time to determine the full scope and severity of this event as search, recovery and survey efforts continue. Our first thoughts and concerns remain with those lost and directly affected by this event.

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Significant wildfires have affected areas of northern and southern California due to extremely dry, windy conditions and very dry fuels. In Northern California, the Camp Fire has burned at least 130,000 acres since November 8 and claimed at least 48 lives, making this the deadliest wildfire in known California history. Damage survey efforts are still ongoing, however initial reports indicate at least 7,600 residences destroyed with another 225 damaged. Meanwhile in Southern California, the Woolsey Fire has consumed at least 97,620 acres along with 483 structures, and at least two lives. Ongoing dry, windy conditions have offset containment efforts. However, aggressive firefighting efforts of over 5,100 firefighters have brought the Camp Fire and Woolsey Fire to 35 and 47 percent containment, respectively. The cause of these fires remains under investigation, according to Cal Fire. A federal disaster area has been declared to better allow emergency assistance. Improving weather conditions should enable greater progress with containment efforts over the coming days.

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The Asia Pacific may be the most adversely impacted region by the pronounced increase in the frequency of extreme weather events around the world. The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Catastrophe Report 2017 projects an increase in economic losses from natural disasters in Asia, which amounted to USD 126 million a day between 2006 to 2015 (1).

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Mark Weatherhead, Head of Model Development, International

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• Asia is particularly prone to flooding because of three factors: hydrology, population density and mitigation rate
• To improve loss assessments, hazard data should be combined with other data types, such as probabilistic event sets and defense information
• Guy Carpenter has made a significant investment in data and technology to help our clients improve their understanding of flood risk

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