Earthquake Forecast Models

Earthquake sequences appear to be globally continuous over time. This suggests that seismic sources or faults may be part of a critically-stressed, self-organized network where earthquakes occur as a chain reaction with respect to one another. Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes as stresses move around in the fault network.

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Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Analysis and Aftershocks

The purpose of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is to quantify the rate (or probability) of exceeding various ground-motion levels at a site or sites, given all possible earthquakes. PSHA involves the following three steps:

• Characterization of the seismic-hazard source model(s)
• Specification of the ground motion model(s) or attenuation relationship(s)
• Probabilistic calculation

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