The dramatic rise in political instability and civil unrest across the globe, including uprisings in the Middle East and protests in Greece and Spain, has triggered a significant shift in the nature of terrorism risk and has highlighted the need for tailored terrorism and political violence protection, according to “Tensions Building: the Changing Nature of Terrorism Risk and Coverage,” by Guy Carpenter.
Posts Tagged ‘political risk’
David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President, Ellen Rieder, Managing Director and Emma Karhan, Senior Vice President
The unrest around the world outlined earlier in the report has begun to impact the terror (re)insurance market, not only with regard to supply and demand but also in terms of how risks and coverages are defined. Although there is an abundance of capacity in the market due to the absence of a recent major terrorism loss (resulting in a stable to softening treaty terrorism market), civil unrest and/or riot coverages in some international terrorism programs are impacting several carriers. Indeed, the dramatic increase in global unrest has caused an increased frequency of localized or territory-specific losses in the facultative reinsurance market.
The dramatic rise in political instability and civil unrest across the globe, including uprisings in the Middle East and protests in Greece and Spain, has triggered a significant shift in the nature of terrorism risk and has highlighted the need for tailored terrorism and political violence protection, according to a new report on global terrorism and the terror reinsurance market, “Tensions Building: the Changing Nature of Terrorism Risk and Coverage,” released by Guy Carpenter.
In the credit and bond primary market, rates are flat, but these are not rate-driven classes. In political risk and especially structured credit, rates are under considerable upwards pressure for obvious reasons. The outlook for 2012 is turbulent, given the prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty and instability around the world. Loss ratios are quite likely to increase.
Loss experience defined the credit, bond and political risk reinsurance renewal, with loss-free programs securing significant rate declines and those affected seeing steep increases. Reinsurance rates on loss-free working layers fell 20 percent on average, while those with losses saw increases of 15 percent to 25 percent, depending on severity. Rate increases were slight for high-risk excess programs if there was underlying activity and flat where there was none.
Credit and Bond
The market conditions for 2010 are fundamentally different from the 2009 renewal season. 2009 saw very tough conditions with capacity scarce and placements taking much longer to finalize. In 2010, we have seen continuing hardening of terms, but a general abundance of capacity and much quicker response times from reinsurers. The loss of capacity from Swiss Re was comfortably exceeded by increases from existing and new reinsurers.
When problems in the subprime mortgage market erupted into a full financial catastrophe last year, conventional wisdom suggested that property and casualty (P&C) insurance companies would suffer. The culprit, many believed, would not be investments in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) like the life insurers. Rather, it would be the possibility of slipped bond ratings because of problems with bond insurers, ultimately lowering the value of the bonds held in P&C investment portfolios. The increase in insured losses as a direct result of subprime and the ensuing credit crunch would certainly drive P&C companies to have poor returns, the thinking continued. Even at the mid-point of 2008, talk of a turn in the market began to percolate.
Guy Carpenter Briefing Finds Rising Interest Rates Could Affect Reinsurers’ Claims-Paying Ability over Long Term, Industry Stable despite Lingering Effects of Financial Crisis
A briefing published today by Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC looks ahead to the possible effects of inflation on long-tail reinsurance, as well as the impact of the credit crunch on reinsurers in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis. The briefing, Casualty Specialty Update, examines the twin pressures that inflation and the global credit crunch are exerting on the global casualty reinsurance industry.