Sherry Thomas, Head of Catastrophe Management - Americas and James Burnett-Herkes, Senior Vice President
Could you afford to find that the portfolio you just acquired in North Carolina is more exposed to hurricane than previously assumed? What if next year’s Category 2 hurricane caused a loss in excess of 15 percent of your policyholders’ surplus? How will the changes in the U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Maps impact your exposure to earthquake risk in the central and eastern United States?
Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts on developments in China’s insurance regulatory system.
Fiscal constraints are increasing across many developed and emerging economies amid growing catastrophic loss potential brought on by the geopolitical climate, demographic trends and global climate change. As a result, heads of government, international trade organizations and private sector risk bearers are increasing their calls to reexamine the roles and responsibilities of society to better manage these complicated risks.
A Mw 7.8 earthquake struck the Esmeralda Province near the west coast of northern Ecuador on April 16, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The quake occurred at 6:58 PM local time (23:58 UTC) about 17 miles (27 km) south-southeast of Muisne and about 106 miles (170 km) west-northwest of Quito, the capital of Ecuador.
The recent 2015 reinsurance renewals in this area demonstrated further expansion in the manner and means by which these insurance providers utilize private-sector capital to support their businesses. Traditional reinsurance remains a core component of most residual market risk financing programs. Typically these risk financing plans will also rely on retained profit, assessments and debt facilities in concert with the various forms of reinsurance to manage their exposures. The utilization of alternative risk financing capital through catastrophe bonds and/or collateralized reinsurance continues to grow with eight of 12 facilities that utilize traditional reinsurance also accessing risk transfer capacity through catastrophe bonds and/or collateralized reinsurance to help manage their loss exposures. The chart below details the increasingly diverse set of risk financing approaches employed by 11 coastal markets.
The US residual property insurance market segment is comprised of Fair Access to Insurance Requirements (FAIR) Plans, Beach and Windstorm Plans and two state run insurance companies - Florida Citizens Property Insurance Company (Florida Citizens) and Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Louisiana Citizens). These insurance facilities grew out of the civil strife in the 1960s to ensure continued access to insurance in urban areas. Over time they have evolved and their mandate has grown beyond their urban focus. Today these facilities are significant providers of some of the most wind- and earthquake-exposed property insurance in the country.
From one of GC Capital Ideas’ more popular categories, we highlight the top Chart Room stories viewed during the first quarter of 2016:
1. Global Property Catastrophe ROL Index 1990 to 2016: The Guy Carpenter Global Property Catastrophe Rate on Line (ROL) index is presented for 1990 through 2016.
2. Regional Property Catastrophe ROL Index, 1990 to 2016: The chart shows the indexes for United States, United Kingdom, Asia Pacific and Europe.
3. Top Ten Catastrophe Bond Transactions for 2015: The table lists the top ten catastrophe bond transactions that were completed in 2015.
4. Catastrophe Bond Issuance and Capital Outstanding - 1998 to YE 2015: The chart below presents catastrophe bond issuance through 2015. Total bond issuance for the year 2015 was the fourth highest historically.
5. Alternative Capacity as a Percentage of Catastrophe Reinsurance Limit: The chart below presents alternative capital capacity as a percentage of global property catastrophe reinsurance limit from 2008 to year-end 2015.
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The continued flow of new capital into the (re)insurance industry constitutes the largest change to the sector’s capital structure in recent memory. New capital has entered the market through investments in insurance-linked securities (ILS) funds, sidecars, hedge fund-backed reinsurance companies and collateralized reinsurance vehicles. Investors have increasingly been attracted to low correlation returns from catastrophe risk relative to traditional capital markets risks and the attractive yield for the measured (re)insurance risk relative to other investments, particularly in the current low inflation, low yield era.
In addition to internal risk management, models are typically used in risk transfer negotiations. Both traditional and alternative risk markets require extensive analysis of portfolios when considering risk transfer. Sharing a portfolio’s standardized model output is critical to imparting the loss potential of a particular portfolio from which risk-capital can be unlocked to support the risk financing needs of a reinsurance buyer. Using technology is critical when partnering governments with the private sector. Whether partnering with developed or emerging economies, these tools bring together the risk knowledge and historical data of the public sector with risk management techniques of the insurance industry. The result is an enhanced understanding of risk that provides stability and attracts partners.