Posts Tagged ‘Review Magazine 2011’



September 14th, 2011

The Power of Predictive Modeling

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

tedeschi_john_gcciJohn Tedeschi, Head of GC Analytics - Americas
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Reinsurance intermediaries - including Guy Carpenter - have long focused on helping their clients quantify catastrophe and other “long tail” risks (in other words, events that have very low frequency yet very high financial impact). But the bulk of companies’ overall risk exposure - high-frequency, low-impact events that represent 50 percent to 60 percent of premium income - is an area where intermediaries have been able to provide limited tools and advice.

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September 14th, 2011

Reserving Cycle Analysis Suggests Tightening Ahead

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

mango_don_gcciDon Mango, Head of Global Advisory
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In recent years there has been a steady stream of reserve releases from insurers, which helped support financial results in the face of a weakening market and significant catastrophe losses. Heading into 2012, Guy Carpenter’s analysis of the reserving cycle suggests that the tide may be turning, and we may be heading into a period of reserve shortfalls.

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September 13th, 2011

Facultative Insurance Update

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

reina_massimo_-gcciMassimo Reina, Head of GC FacĀ® - International
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The factors that have impacted the broader market in 2011 have, for the most part, flowed through to the facultative insurance business to similar effect. The early-year catastrophes in Japan, Australia and New Zealand left participants questioning whether there would be adequate market capacity, but by midyear, we noted ample available cover. We expect facultative catastrophe prices, in aggregate, to be flat to moderately up for the remainder of the year. On the other hand, non-catastrophe prices remain under pressure, while non-property classes continue their downward trend in pricing.

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September 13th, 2011

Solvency II: Changing the Game

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

lightfoot_david_gcciDavid Lightfoot, Head of GC Analytics - International
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Market consensus holds that Solvency II will ultimately benefit reinsurers, as primary insurers faced with higher risk-adjusted capital requirements will turn to the reinsurance market as a relatively inexpensive source of additional capital and risk transfer. This assumption, however, conceals numerous challenges - and several opportunities - that Solvency II presents.

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September 13th, 2011

Merger and Acquisitions in Uncertain Markets

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

kennedy_bill_gcci1Bill Kennedy, CEO of Global Analytics and Advisory
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The global reinsurance sector is adrift. With little conviction in the market’s next move, the challenges of organic growth by primary (re)insurers have heightened. Economic uncertainty, volatility in global equity markets and sovereign debt concerns are dampening CEOs’ confidence. Rates remain challenged, and cost savings are hard to find in the property and casualty (P&C) space. With stocks plummeting and credit markets getting roiled, the pace of deals for the remainder of 2011 is expected to slow.

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September 12th, 2011

A Multi-Model Approach to Catastrophe Risk Assessment

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

kennedy_bill_gcciBill Kennedy, CEO of Global Analytics and Advisory
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Catastrophe models are very useful in assessing risk exposure, and it is no surprise that they have become essential tools for any insurer underwriting catastrophe loss coverage. But in recent years, they have evolved from useful supplemental tools to forces in their own right. Today, model revisions can become disruptive events affecting large segments of the industry - as we have seen over the past year with major changes to models by RMS and AIR.

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September 12th, 2011

European Reinsurance Pricing Outlook

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

frankland_nick_gcciNick Frankland, CEO of EMEA Operations
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Predicting reinsurance renewal pricing is never an exact science. This year the task is further complicated by the rampant uncertainty in European markets and economies. Still, we expect that overall, on a risk-adjusted basis, prices at the 2012 renewal will be flat to down for European insurers. Continue reading…

September 11th, 2011

Record Catastrophe Losses of 2011 Could Impact 2012 Pricing

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

flandro_davidDavid Flandro, Head of Global Business Intelligence
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The first six months of 2011 experienced heavy losses from an exceptional accumulation of global natural catastrophes. A series of powerful earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, combined with multi-billion dollar payouts from tornadoes and floods in the United States and Australia, meant the (re)insurance sector experienced the costliest first half on record in accident-year terms. Insured losses of about USD70 billion are estimated for the period. These losses are more than five times higher than the first-half average for the past 10 years and second only to the full 12-month loss of 2005.

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September 11th, 2011

Opportunity Amid Uncertainty

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Alexander MoczarskiAlex Moczarski, President and CEO
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Pundits are never at a loss for a colorful word to describe the state of the (re)insurance market. But the market of 2011 poses a unique challenge: There are actually very few words to describe it. It clearly is not an up market, so no bullish terms are in order - but it is not a down market, either. It is not a market in transition, a stalled market or a market that is retracing. These all indicate a sense of what is going to happen - when in reality, there appears to be no such conviction.

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