Guy Carpenter and its sister company, Oliver Wyman, the international management consulting firm, published the third annual Insurance Risk Benchmarks in September of 2013. We highlight the report here again.
Posts Tagged ‘risk management’
In light of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, released on Monday, March 31, here is a review of recent GC Capital Ideas stories focused on climate change.
Responding to Climate Change: It is vital for (re)insurers to consider how climate change could impact future losses. Global warming potentially poses a serious financial threat to the insurance industry with implications for catastrophe risk perception, pricing and modeling assumptions.
Climate Change: A Look into the Future: Global climate models project a best estimate of a further two to four degree (Celsius) increase in the mean temperature of the Earth by the end of this century. Although this may seem insignificant on an intuitive level, the resulting impacts are of significant concern. Sea-level rise is the most significant threat for coastal areas as a result of melting glaciers. Apart from this threat, changing weather patterns will result in drought and inland flood threats for some areas. As a general principle of climate change, changes to the mean of meteorological extreme value distributions can be expected but an increase in tail thickness (or variability) is of greater concern. The day-to-day variability that we see today will likely expand.
The Reality of Global Warming: The increase in the global mean air temperature, as compared to the 1951-1980 average and the surge in average oceanic heat content for the 0-700 meter layer is depicted in these graphics. The increase in oceanic heat content in particular is notable as it takes a very large amount of energy to heat such a volume of water.
Global Warming: Adaptation Measures: The IPCC publications represent scientific consensus among many of the world’s top scientists (and scientific consensus is difficult to achieve). Their findings are generally consistent with the broader scientific literature.
Global Warming: Losses: Economic losses resulting from natural disasters increased from USD75.5 Billion in the 1960s to USD659.9 Billion in the 1990s. Insured losses have also increased, and “the dominant signal is of significant increase in the values of exposure.” Furthermore, the IPCC states that “failure to adjust for time-variant economic factors yields loss amounts that are not directly comparable and a pronounced upward trend for purely economic reasons.”
Global Warming: The Evolving Risk Landscape: Global warming is an established scientific fact, and one that cannot be explained by statistical “noise” or natural variability alone. The single greatest threat under global warming is that of sea-level rise, which is expected to increase coastal flood frequency and severity under tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone and tsunami events. The growing urban footprint and population density in coastal areas amplifies the financial and societal implications of such events.
Capital management using risk-based capital models and capital allocation is a central component of risk management practices. We have investigated this topic as a new chapter for our 2013 ERM Benchmark update. In this context, Table 3 shows the portion of companies that publish concrete data on their excess capital - the amount of capital retained in excess of a certain target amount. Table 3 also shows both the portion of companies using risk-based capital models in the risk management process and the portion giving some indication of the methodology of the capital allocation process.
Table 1 (below) quantifies the proportion of companies in the sample that disclose the method as well as the specific level of various risk quantifications. Compared to our previous ERM benchmark study, a new metric referring to catastrophe risk has been added. Taking advantage of the increased level of disclosure and transparency on catastrophe risk exposure, we have extended our reports to include this in view of its importance in the economic capital approach of (re)insurers.
2013 Update General Observations
Before focusing on the results of the latest study, we would like to reaffirm the definition of risk profile, risk appetite and risk tolerance found in our previous publications:
In April and October 2009, Guy Carpenter published two briefings titled “Risk Profile, Appetite and Tolerance: Fundamental Concepts in Risk Management and Reinsurance Effectiveness.” This briefing is an update of those studies that summarizes the information publicly disclosed on enterprise risk management (ERM) measures.
On Monday, February 24, 2014, the sun once again provided a reminder of the potential hazards of solar weather events. A large solar flare was reported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) measuring at X4.9 (1) (or according to the National Weather Service’s Space Prediction Center, an R3 (strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout) (2) that could cause severe disruption to satellites and technology on Earth.
Peter Book, Head of Agriculture, Asia Pacific
Social: Managing the supply side.
A challenge in many regions is the transport from the farm of the right food to the consumer without physical loss or spoilage. Putting transit losses aside, there is a question of getting the “correct” food and influencing the supply chain.
Peter Book, Head of Agriculture, Asia Pacific
Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.¹
Fundamentally food has to be safe, nutritious and available in sufficient quantity. On a global scale these are always achievable. It is at a country or smaller geographic territory-level where problems often arise. These concepts encompass the first part of the opening statement and relate to access: