Matthew Day, Senior Vice President, Guy Carpenter Strategic Advisory and Ross Milburn, Managing Director, GC Securities*, a division of MMC Securities (Europe) Ltd., which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority
Here we review how a holistic approach to managing solvency capital requirements can benefit insurers’ bottom line:
Victoria Jenkins, Managing Director, and Morley Speed, Managing Director
For bodily injury claim settlements in Europe, the trend is shifting away from lump sums and towards annuity-type settlements, which come with risks related to longevity, inflation and hedging. Insurance companies with significant casualty business may see their risk profiles transform over time to be more like pensions funds - but without working members and with even longer lasting liabilities. While the insurance industry is beginning to understand the implications of this move to annuity settlements, it does not have a clear understanding of the implications for an increasingly important regulatory balance sheet metric: Risk Margin.
Here we present recent GC Capital Ideas stories focusing on profitable growth.
The January 1, 2012, renewals saw a shift in industry behavior as both insurers and reinsurers implemented more sophisticated, customized approaches to risk assessment and mitigation, according to Guy Carpenter. In its 2012 global reinsurance outlook, Catastrophes, Cold Spots and Capital: Navigating for Success in a Transitioning Market, Guy Carpenter reported that reinsurers were in a position to undertake a major review of pricing and underwriting going into the renewal season. This led to significant market fragmentation and increased market volatility at January 1.
Here we review the top GC Capital Ideas stories that have covered reserves in the last year.
MetaRisk® ReserveTM: How to Get Ahead of the Reserving Cycle: The impact of claims inflation on eroding returns is among the most vexing challenges that insurers face. Getting ahead of the reserving cycle would be a significant competitive advantage, but many carriers do not have the right tools at their disposal. As a result, the ability to hit target return on equity (ROE) levels is put at risk, and firm value hangs in the balance.
Reserving Cycle Analysis Suggests Tightening Ahead: In recent years there has been a steady stream of reserve releases from insurers, which helped support financial results in the face of a weakening market and significant catastrophe losses. Heading into 2012, Guy Carpenter’s analysis of the reserving cycle suggests that the tide may be turning, and we may be heading into a period of reserve shortfalls.
Guy Carpenter Publishes First Industry Risk Benchmarks Report: Guy Carpenter announced publication of its first Industry Risk Benchmarks report, which provides risk benchmarks for loss ratios and reserves, by line of business, for coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean), correlation and cycles.
Workers Compensation Reserve Risk Development: The Cat That May Be Lurking in Your Balance Sheet: Sudden natural disasters such as the tragic Tohoku earthquake in March are not the only catastrophes that can impact insurers’ balance sheets and policyholder surplus. Such well publicized natural catastrophes only account for about 10 percent of insurers’ notable capital and surplus impairments triggering regulatory action and concern. Of the remaining 90 percent, by far the single largest cause of impairments over the past 40 years (1969-2009) emanated from inadequate pricing and deficient loss reserves - resulting in approximately 40 percent of the cases.
Chart: Property & Casualty Accident Year Reserve Development: Accident year loss experience is beginning to show signs of lower reserve margins. The chart below shows U.S. P&C industry reserve development by accident year since 2000. The reserving cycle is evident in the graph with adverse accident year loss development during the “soft market” years of 2000 and 2001 and favorable development between 2003 and 2007. The orange line in the graph shows the average initial loss ratio pick. The old reserving adage that “good years get better and bad years get worse” appears to be borne out here.
Chart: Sustainability of Loss Reserves: Historically, one of the “big cats” has been sector under-reserving, which served as the backdrop for the last hard market. Over the last four years, reserve releases have featured prominently in the reinsurance sector and have continued to do so up until the third quarter of 2010. The chart below shows the contribution to reserve releases on the Guy Carpenter Bermuda Reinsurance Composite combined ratios from 2005. It is notable that the benefit from reserve releases has ticked up in the first nine months of 2010 by one full percentage point, to 8.8 points on the loss ratio. This has occurred during a year when many projected reserve releases would diminish.
Chart: Incurred But Not Reported Levels a Measure of Reserving Trends: A clue which could point to a shift in reserving trends may be evident in U.S. P&C industry percentage of first year incurred but not reported (IBNR) figures, which, all else equal, is a measure of reserving conservatism. In the chart below, a trend of potentially diminishing conservatism can be seen. It is significant that the industry is, in aggregate, back to levels of around 30 percent - levels previously seen in the last soft market.
Challenges and Opportunities
It is clear that Solvency II presents a host of challenges to (re)insurers. With a disciplined and thoughtful approach, many companies will see opportunities to lessen the impact - or even to improve their competitive stance in the industry. Below we explore in detail some of the key considerations, challenges and opportunities associated with Solvency II.
Total risk capital outstanding declined from the second quarter of 2010 to the third quarter, reaching USD10.99 billion - down from USD11.82 billion. This represents a net decrease of USD826 million (7 percent). Risk capital outstanding has declined in each quarter of 2010 thus far. While this is not surprising given the roll-off of the bulk of the USD7 billion issued in 2007, it also suggests the cat bond market should have a strong appetite for additional transactions during the fourth quarter of 2010 and into 2011.
Here are our most popular stories on enterprise risk management that have appeared on GC Capital Ideas in 2010.
Corporate Decision Making Using Economic Capital Models: Part I: Introduction, Quantifying Corporate Risk: In the 1980s many large general insurance companies investigated the use of dynamic financial analysis for corporate decision making. Only a small number of insurers and reinsurers, many of which were European, were able to develop dynamic financial models that were adequate for use in decision making. The primary obstacles to implementation were actuarial knowledge and computer technology. By the early 2000s, technology had improved, actuaries had developed techniques that allowed better quantification of insurance risks and dynamic financial analysis had evolved into enterprise risk management (ERM) supported by economic capital models. With these improvements, regulators began to develop solvency rules that create incentives for insurers to implement economic capital models. Although the current impetus for economic capital models is regulatory, the original purpose of enhanced strategic decision making is still valid and companies that use their economic capital models for ERM will be industry leaders.
Corporate Decision Making Using Economic Capital Models: Part II: Identifying Capital Needs: Capital needs can be defined from a number of different perspectives:
(Re)Insurance Innovation: Committing to the Leading Edge, Part I: Overview: The threats to which (re)insurers’ capital is exposed seem to multiply with alarming regularity. Today, the industry is contending with risks that were barely imaginable (at best) 20 years ago. In an age when carriers must respond to casualty catastrophes, the possible effects of climate change and financial market calamity - perhaps all on the same earnings call - it’s natural to wonder if the right tools and techniques for the job are available. Risk and capital management have only grown in complexity, a trajectory that is quite likely to continue - and probably accelerate.
(Re)Insurance Innovation: Committing to the Leading Edge: Part II: The Challenge of Innovation: Innovation can be a source of competitive advantage. A (re)insurer - or service provider (e.g., a reinsurance intermediary) - devises a solution to a particular challenge that the industry faces. It results in improved risk or capital management, for example, leading to enhanced margins, the optimization of capital deployment or expense management. Since the innovator - or early adopter of a service provider’s new idea - has access first, it realizes the benefit ahead of competitors that wait for the trend to crystallize.
(Re)Insurance Innovation: Committing to the Leading Edge, Part III: Get in the Game Early: Those who invest in and prioritize research and development - and introduce new tools and ideas - benefit from more than just the prestige of being first. Early movers define the standard to which others will have to adapt later. They shape the development of innovation, and thus its evolution, as it moves from a radically new idea to an accepted marketplace practice. In possessing this control, they hold the upper hand over their competitors, which become weighted with the burdens of the catch-up clamor.
(Re)Insurance Innovation: Committing to the Leading Edge, Part IV: Staying Out Front: Innovation must be continual, because of the lifecycle that governs it. If you’re not innovating (or adopting) now, you’re falling behind. The advantages of one innovative solution are quickly outpaced when another is developed or that same solution is adapted to new situations; and if the originator is not doing the work to make those leaps, the reputation of innovation can be quickly lost.
(Re)Insurance Innovation: Committing to the Leading Edge, Part V: The Elements of Innovation: Innovation requires a dedication to research, creativity, resources and foresight. Above all, however, it takes courage to accept the risks - to strive for success rather than cowering in fear of failure. In fact, the best companies learn from occasional mistakes. Learning from failure during the development stages of innovation strengthens a company’s capabilities. It creates an understanding of the issue at hand farther reaching and more in depth than that of the competitors which attach to the idea after it has been accepted as a standard. This understanding fosters a more effective use of that innovation as well as a platform from which to generate new ideas with the practical experience of what works and what does not.
