Posts Tagged ‘Ryan Ogaard’



March 25th, 2009

Guy Carpenter Western Region Seminar a Resounding Success

Posted at 11:00 AM ET

Guy Carpenter hosted (re)insurance industry executives from the western region of the United States on March 4 for a two-day event to discuss the challenges of managing risk and capital in a precarious economic climate. The event, “Shelter from the Storm: Managing Risk and Capital in Rough Seas,” included presentations by some of Guy Carpenter’s leading thinkers on issues from the cost and availability of capital to the effectiveness of models and the advantages of implementing an Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) framework. Ultimately, all discussions pointed back to the one crucial issue that cedents and markets will face in 2009: how to protect their balance sheets from the dual risks of financial and insured losses.

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March 10th, 2009

Known Unknowns

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Ryan Ogaard, Global Head of Instrat®

The “black swan” is trumpeting! Last year, we saw the first-hand effects of random, unforeseen, and massive events. Catastrophe models — the tools we use to forecast disaster and protect capital — were shown to be quite fallible, leaving balance sheets exposed to more risk than carriers realized. Yet, maybe we’ve been a bit hasty in meting out blame. Catastrophe models have made great strides since they were first introduced, and our industry must continue to use them for a reason. What has emerged is an essential tension between the unknown and efforts to counteract it.

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March 5th, 2009

Risk Modeling Part IV: ERM

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Ryan Ogaard, Global Head of Instrat®

A misunderstanding of models and exposure data is not the primary cause of most modeling failures. Indeed, many companies that have suffered in recent catastrophes, both physical and financial, had substantial and sophisticated resources invested in risk analysis. What is often missing is the connection between analysis and management decisions, and this is the link that the rapidly evolving practice of enterprise risk management (ERM) is meant to create.

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March 4th, 2009

Risk Modeling Part III: The Synthesis

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Ryan Ogaard, Global Head of Instrat®

Risk models tend to be a synthesis of data, expert opinion, and technique: The best thinking and information boiled down to a very educated guess. It is essential to understand how this guess was made and to weave that knowledge into decisions about risk-taking. This can be difficult. Risk models are generally complex — sometimes opaque in their workings — and even models that seem transparent can produce unforeseen results due to the interaction of their many moving parts. The components of a risk model encompass the nature of risk events, including frequency, severity, correlation, and probability. Each component must be sound and interact properly with other components. It is no wonder that P&C insurers are employing ever-increasing numbers of modeling specialists.

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March 3rd, 2009

Risk Modeling Part II: Data

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Ryan Ogaard, Global Head of Instrat®

Often, the situations or events that define unacceptable risk have never occurred, or have occurred in far different environments than exist today. While models attempt to put all relevant information about a particular risk into a single picture, it is well known that they will never fully mimic human behavior — but that does not lessen their value. Models can be very informative if they are put into the proper context and used to produce knowledge rather than definitive answers. To understand models, decision makers must understand the information that created and feeds them — the data.

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March 2nd, 2009

Risk Modeling Part I: Overview

Posted at 1:00 AM ET

Ryan Ogaard, Global Head of Instrat®

The global financial crisis has increased the world’s focus on risk modeling, and for some it has called the very validity of the practice into question. Common themes resonating throughout the popular press include the difficulty of modeling human behavior and the complexity of the intricate webs of financial hedging that imploded to create the current crisis. In-depth investigations into the mechanics of subprime have revealed the existence of known blind spots in the models. Management considered these blind spots either unimportant or unlikely to have an impact on results, but they point to the real culprits in most modeling mishaps - a lack of holistic risk awareness, or what the 9/11 Commission’s report called “a failure of the imagination.”

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January 14th, 2009

MMC Publishes Viewpoint

Posted at 1:05 AM ET

Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (MMC) today published Volume 1, 2009 of Viewpoint, the journal that highlights the firm’s latest thinking on today’s critical issues and risks. The new issue is available for download on mmc.com and contains the following articles:

Risk Governance: Seeing the Forest for the Trees - A look into the reasons why risk management failed so many institutions so spectacularly and led, in part, to the financial crisis. Written by Andrew Kuritzkes, a partner and senior member of Oliver Wyman’s Finance and Risk practice, the article goes on to discuss what organizations can do to avoid making the same mistakes.

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