Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Evolution of the Property-Catastrophe Reinsurance Market

This year’s 8 percent Guy Carpenter World ROL Index increase differs profoundly from the 65 percent surge that followed Hurricane Andrew and the 24 percent hike following the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. Even after losing 18 percent of its aggregate capital following the 2008 financial catastrophe, reinsurers were unable to push for the high rates that some expected. The evolution of the reinsurance industry over the past two decades suggests that carriers have become much more adept at managing risk and capital, making it easier to absorb shock losses and manage the cost to transfer risk.

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Global Reinsurance Review January 2009

Reinsurance rate increases were moderate on average at the January 1, 2009 renewal. The Guy Carpenter World Rate on Line (ROL) Index rose 8 percent, in response to the dual pressures of a financial catastrophe and the second most expensive property catastrophe year on record. The degree to which prices increased was tempered by large capital positions at the beginning of 2008, enabling carriers to absorb the year’s losses, but this is where the generalizations end. Loss history, geography, and line of business led to wide differences in pricing. Expectations of another above-average storm year and the uncertainty surrounding the credit crisis underscore the need for continued capital management discipline in the coming year.

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Sean Mooney, Chief Economist
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Despite the ambiguity pervading financial and reinsurance markets, it is clear that systemic risk has increased. Unprecedented chaos in financial markets left investors more risk-averse than they were at the end of the summer. They are demanding greater returns on the capital they put at risk. A closer look at the economic conditions underlying the marketplace, however, suggests that an increase of 1 percent to 3 percent is warranted for catastrophe covers, which should result in a minor impact at the January 1, 2009 renewal. Other factors, including the impact of the global recession on premiums and claims, the collapse in equity values, a rising distrust of modeled results arising out of Hurricane Ike, increased demand by cedents seeking to preserve their diminished capital, and diminished supply of reinsurance capacity, are likely to have a much greater impact on rates.

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Christopher Klein, Global Head of Business Intelligence
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Excess capital caused soft market conditions persisted at July property and casualty renewals. For property-catastrophe covers, risk-adjusted pricing dropped 10 percent to 20 percent relative to July 1, 2007. Quote ranges narrowed, though, as reinsurers responded to the realities of the market. The weakening global economy has squeezed insurance and reinsurance markets, as well as corporate profitability worldwide. This has led to considerable expense pressure, including the cost of insurance and reinsurance premiums.

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