Guy Carpenter reports that dynamic capital growth and ample reinsurance capacity resulted in a relatively stable renewal at April 1, 2013. In a briefing released today, Guy Carpenter comments that the convergence of traditional and alternative capital sources is changing the marketplace, with non-traditional capacity now making up an estimated 14 percent of global property catastrophe limit.

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Here we review the recent GC Capital Ideas stories that have dealt with supply chain risk. 

Contingent Business Interruption: Life Support for Industry:  the insurance industry contemplates the concept of supply chain risk, questioning whether it is a threat or an opportunity. The industry is undecided whether CBI coverage should be enthusiastically marketed as a positive differentiator or consigned to the “accommodation business” category. 

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Global Losses of 2011 Changed the Perception of Risk: Over the last few years, the global (re)insurance sector has seen significant increases in cold spot catastrophe losses. This growing trend refers to exposures in territories that have historically been considered non-peak zones and are unmodeled or inadequately modeled. It is also a by-product of the increasingly global economy in which (re)insurers operate and the growing demand for (re)insurance in emerging and developing territories.

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Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand.

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Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: The Thai floods emphasized the need not only to understand asset concentrations better but also the fragility of global supply chains. Not only were these property damage losses modeled on a rudimentary basis if at all, but business interruption losses and supply chain disruption were completely unmodeled.

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Global Perils: The Tohoku earthquake/tsunami and the Thai floods revealed risks that (re)insurers had not previously considered, with CBI claims - resulting from supply chain failure - accounting for a large share of insured losses.

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Here we gather recent GC Capital Ideas posts that focus on flood risk and flood events in the Asia Pacific region. 

Floods in Eastern Australia:  Ex-tropical cyclone Oswald tracked over parts of Queensland and New South Wales in eastern Australia between January 23 and January 30, resulting in widespread damage from flooding, severe storms and tornadoes.

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Increased Flood Loss Potential: Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy.

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Flood Risks in Emerging Markets: Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

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Guy Carpenter Develops Database of Industrial Estates in China, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion.

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Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Catastrophe Report 2012; Executive Summary: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report, there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.

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Thailand Flood 2011: Executive Summary:  In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, leaving more than 800 people dead and causing severe damage across northern and central regions of the country. The floods, lasting a few months, severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in Thailand. Flooding also forced seven huge industrial estates in central regions to close, causing damage to the industrial sector in the billions of U.S. dollars.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Guy Carpenter is uniquely positioned to help clients successfully grow their business in emerging markets. Our GC Global Analytics and Advisory team offers services and solutions that include industry-leading risk analytics, strategic and technical advice and capital advisory. We employ over 300 modeling, actuarial and advisory professionals through our GC Analytics®**, Global Advisory and GC Securities* teams who closely collaborate with Guy Carpenter’s global broking force to deliver the best insights and growth opportunities to our clients. We encourage you to contact your Guy Carpenter representative to review and discuss your modeling, advisory and capital needs in more detail. Among the specific services and tools we utilize and offer are proprietary modeling, the i-aXs® data management platform, MetaRisk®, portfolio management, predictive analytics, advisory services and actuarial expertise.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Making use of all available tools and practicing comprehensive exposure management will both strengthen (re)insurers’ ERM practices and allow them to make informed risk management and reinsurance decisions as they enter new markets. Certainly, flood risk is prevalent and increasing in almost every developing economy. Recent studies by Swiss Re (1) and the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2) suggest flood loss potential will grow as emerging economies continue to prosper.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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Despite such important model limitations for earthquakes, the lack of modeling solutions for flood risks poses an even greater threat to (re)insurers. As illustrated by Figure 7 below, flood risk is poorly modeled at a global level by the three main modeling companies, particularly in developing countries where flooding is a regular occurrence.

Continue reading…

David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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As Table 1 shows, the three perils of wind, earthquake and flood have caused the heaviest losses to (re)insurers. While hurricanes in the United States have unsurprisingly generated the biggest wind losses, the most expensive earthquakes and floods have a more international flavor. Indeed, the most expensive earthquake loss and flood loss on record occurred last year in Japan and Thailand, respectively. Moreover, both the Tohoku earthquake/tsunami and the Thai floods revealed risks that (re)insurers had not previously considered, with CBI claims - resulting from supply chain failure - accounting for a large share of insured losses. High impact, low frequency events (such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones) and perils that typically are more regular (such as floods) are widespread in several developing markets, raising the prospect of more hidden loss potential.

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David Flandro, Global Head of Business Intelligence, Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President and Lucy Dalimonte, Senior Vice President
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The rise of natural catastrophe insured losses in non-peak zones is evident when looking at the global distribution of losses over the last three years. Figure 1 shows 35 percent of insured losses between 2009 and 2011 were located in Asia while only 33 percent were in the United States. Australia and New Zealand also saw a marked increase in insured natural catastrophe losses during this period, with 19 percent of the total.

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October 31, 2012: In 2011, Thailand experienced its worst flooding in years, which severely damaged and disrupted manufacturing operations in seven large industrial parks. Due in large part to the significant concentration of insured values in these parks, total insured loss from the 2011 flood is estimated to be in the range of USD15 to USD20 billion. In light of the disproportionate contribution of losses from industrial estates to overall insured loss, Guy Carpenter & Company has developed a database of industrial parks in Asia to help clients better identify and evaluate potential risks in the region.

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October 30, 2012: At the time we were publishing our 2011 Asia Pacific Catastrophe report, there was a growing realization that losses from the Thai flooding ongoing at the time were going to be significant. The Thai flood losses came at the end of a run of losses in the Asia Pacific region that were large, unprecedented in recent times and possibly unexpected by many market participants.

Continue reading…