Dr. Rebecca Cheetham, Instrat®
The Australian tropical cyclone season runs from November 1 to April 30, with a peak in February and March. The 2007/2008 season showed moderately above-average activity, with a total of 12 tropical cyclones, of which five reached severe tropical cyclone strength (equivalent of U.S. hurricane strength).
Two tropical storms made landfall on the Australian coastline during the 2007/2008 season (Helen and Nicholas). This is the lowest number of landfalling tropical storms since 2001. No severe tropical cyclones made landfall along the Australian coastline in 2007 or 2008.
Forecast of Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Activity in 2008/2009
Tropical Storm Risk’s (TSR) final monthly tropical cyclone forecast for the Australian region in 2008/09 was issued on December 4, 2008.1 This forecast spans the Australian season from November 1, 2008 to April 30, 2009 and is based on data available through to the end of November 2008. TSR expects tropcial cyclone activity and landfalling numbers to be above-average during 2008/2009.
Forecast numbers for storm development and landfalling numbers in the Australian region during the 2008/2009 season are shown in the table below.
Separately, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) released a Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the states of Queensland and the Northern Territory in October 2008. The BoM said it expects slightly above average activity for both states in the 2008/2009 season.2
Forecasts for 2009/2010 Tropical Cyclone Season
For the 2009/2010 tropical cyclone season, the Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) is planning to develop tropical cyclone development forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere basins, including the South Indian Ocean, the Southwest Pacific and the Australian region. These forecasts will be available at http://www.cityu.edu.hk/gcacic/.
- Julian Alovisi, Assistant Vice President, Instrat
- Saunders, M. & Lea, A., 2008. December Forecast Update for Australian Region Tropical Storm Activity in 2008/9.
- http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20081020.shtml, http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/nt/20081020.shtml
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