Here we review recent GC Capital Ideas posts covering insights on modeling.
Terror: The Role of Technology and Analytics: Terrorism, political violence and other malicious acts differ from other insurable perils in that they are dynamic and adaptive; there is human intent driving the probability and willing the impacts to change. Historic incidents show past trends, but those are only partial drivers of future trends as terrorists adapt their tactics in response to past effectiveness and current circumstances.
Wildfire Risk and Underwriting Strategy: In 2018, California suffered its most costly and deadly fire season to date. The year’s costliest insured loss event was California’s Camp Fire at USD 12 billion — also the most destructive fire in the state’s history. Additionally in 2018, over 100 people perished in wildfires in Greece; British Columbia, Canada, suffered its worst wildfire season in history; in Australia, bushfires burned on Sydney’s perimeters.
Parametric Risk Transfer – When Does It Make Sense? Parametric insurance provides cover for predetermined catastrophic natural events such as an earthquake exceeding a certain magnitude, a hurricane producing a certain wind speed at a location, or a flood reaching into certain areas. The insured buys a predefined amount of protection that will pay out based on predefined terms regardless of the actual loss incurred.
Do Real-Time Event Loss Estimates Inform Model Fitness? Catastrophe model vendors release tools to support assessment of portfolio losses following significant industry events. Guy Carpenter’s general observation is that there are more underestimations than over estimations of events, globally. In this series, we explore this bias and address its relationship to model fitness.