Businesses operating in both developed and emerging markets face a complex and often volatile political risk landscape in 2020. Issues related to global trade will continue, resulting in persistent political and economic uncertainty for businesses. Drawing on data from Fitch Solutions, Marsh’s Political Risk Map 2020 explores the changing risk environment, highlighting the implications for firms operating globally. Marsh is an affiliate of Guy Carpenter.
The transition toward a multipolar world order seen in 2019 — with multiple challenges to multilateralism and free trade — is expected to continue. Although the United States and China have reached a “phase one” trade deal, it is unlikely to permanently resolve their trade dispute. The two countries are likely to remain strategically opposed on issues such as protection of intellectual property and state support for certain industries. Indeed, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2020 states: “Economic confrontations between major powers is the most concerning risk for 2020.”