The Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) at the School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, has released its 2020 predictions for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls using a regional climate model focusing on East Asia. This model uses information from a global climate prediction model made available in March 2020.
Consistent with what is typical in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions following a weak El Niño year, the number of tropical cyclones predicted to form between April 1 and September 30 is below- to near-normal. However, across the regions of East Asia, the number of tropical cyclone landfalls is quite varied with below-normal numbers for the Japan and Korea region, near-normal numbers for the Eastern China and Taiwan region and the South China and Vietnam region and above-normal numbers for the Philippines.
Highlights of findings:
• The number of tropical cyclone formations predicted for the six-month period from April 1 to September 30 is approximately 22.6, which is near the 1977-2018 six-month average of 21.1.
• Of the 22.6 formations predicted, fewer than 9.4 will make landfall, which is similar to the 1977-2018 average of approximately 9.5.