The Isiais forecast calls for intensification back to category-1 strength today, making landfall in southern North Carolina tonight. Isaias will accelerate northeast into the I-95 corridor through Wednesday, with excessive inland rainfall and coastal storm surge of several feet through New England.
Expert Discussion
The combination of weakening to tropical storm force, along with a track just far enough off the east coast of Florida, resulted in negligible impacts for the majority of the Sunshine State. Over the last 24 hours, Isaias has become better organized over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream to the east of Florida, and is on the cusp of regaining hurricane strength.
Carolinas Impact
Tropical storm force winds will begin to overspread South Carolina this afternoon and North Carolina this evening. Hurricane warnings were issued as of 5AM EDT, Monday morning from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC. In addition to a 25-35 mile corridor of hurricane force winds possible this evening, excessive rainfall and storm surge are also major concerns. Due to the full moon also occurring tonight, storm surge will gain an extra foot on top of the influences of Isaias if peak surge occurs simultaneous to high tide. The extent of storm surge warnings is larger than hurricane warnings, from Edisto Beach, SC north to Cape Fear, NC. Storm surge warnings will likely be expanded further northward in future advisories.
Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have been issued for portions of North Carolina, as well as 150 National Guard troops being mobilized to help respond to Isaias. A list of municipalities and counties where evacuations have been issued is available through the North Carolina Department of Public Safety. No evacuation orders have been issued for South Carolina.
Broader US Eastern Seaboard Impacts
With any landfalling hurricane, the threat of high winds, tornadoes, storm surge and inland rainfall exists. The region impacts of each these hazards are identified below for the Eastern Seaboard of the US.
As Isaias accelerates into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, the storm will be merging with a cold front and associated jet stream over northeastern North America. The confluence of these three factors will begin the process of extratropical transition, where the heaviest rain shifts to the west of the storm track, while the strongest winds grow broader to the east of the track.
Unless the forecast changes materially stronger before landfall in the Carolinas, this will be the last Weather Sentinel post issued on Isaias. For further information on real-time impacts and official statements, please utilize the following links as updates will be frequent over the next several days regarding impacts and personal safety.
Local National Weather Service Office Statements and Products for Isaias
